Week 1 is finally here! That means that we are finally able to dive head-first into matchups and storylines. Here is a compilation of my thoughts regarding Week 1’s most interesting games, along with schematic information and what to watch for this weekend! Each matchup has a score prediction with reasoning. Skip the end to learn about the most intriguing game this weekend!
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Most Intriguing Matchups
Lions @ Chiefs
Thursday | 8:20 ET
The Lions fanbase comes into their season opener with the most optimism in recent memory. Ford Field season tickets sold out for the first time in history. Unfortunately for Dan Campbell’s squad, they must kick off their golden season with a trip to Kansas City to battle the reigning Super Bowl champions. From the Chiefs’ perspective, they are hoping to avoid a Super Bowl hangover with a tough week 1 win. With two of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, this is the perfect matchup to jumpstart week 1.
The key for the Lions is to avoid getting down early. Last season, Kansas City played the least cover 3 (the best run-stopping coverage) in the whole league. Since they were usually winning, they were able to sit back in 2-high-safety looks and simply play the pass. If Detroit becomes one dimensional early, it’ll be tough sledding.
Another thing to watch is the battle between the Chiefs wide receivers and the Lions cornerbacks. In 2022, Detroit played a highly aggressive style of defense that meant putting a ton of trust into their cornerbacks. With new additions Cam Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley, the strategy may begin to pay off. Still, there is also a good chance that Andy Reid is able to dial up man-beaters at the right time and expose the gelling defense.
The probable abcense of Travis Kelce is massive. If he isn’t good to go, Patrick Mahomes won’t have a true number one receiver, someone that he can count on to beat man coverage consistently. It would be fascinating to see this form of the Kansas City offense. Assuming Kelce doesn’t play, this game is going to to be a lot closer than previously anticipated.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 27 Lions 24
Packers @ Bears
Sunday | 4:25 ET
A Packers-Bears matchup is always worth watching, this year especially. Both franchises are at potential inflection points. Sunday will mark Green Bay’s first game without Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre on the roster since 1991. While many Packers fans seemed to invite Rodgers’ departure and the start of the Jordan Love era, it certainly has created a great deal of uncertainty.
On the other side of things, the Bears are looking to improve on 2022’s three-win campaign. The fact that 2023 will be the first year Justin Fields has run the same offense in consecutive seasons, coupled with the addition of star WR DJ Moore, there is real excitement around the city of Chicago. Fans love the direction that GM Ryan Poles has the franchise headed in. However, all of this momentum could disintegrate with a week 1 loss to their rival to the north.
Schematically, look for the Bears to focus on the run game and short passes against Green Bay’s quarters-style defense. After finishing 25th in PFF run defense grade last year, the Packers hope that the return of Rashan Gary will help ease their defensive troubles. If Chicago’s three headed monster at running back is able to gain consistent yardage (which they should), it would be a huge issue for Green Bay. On the other side of the ball, look for Jordan Love to constantly test the Bears’ young secondary, especially starting rookie cornerback Tyrique Stevenson. Still, their main goal will be to pound the rock with Aaron Jones. The Packers major in outside zone. This works in their favor, as Chicago’s edges aren’t strong against the run, namely new addition Yannick Ngakoue. Still, the Bears will blitz Jordan Love at a high clip and ultimately overwhelm him in his first trip to Soldier Field.
Score Prediction: Bears 24 Packers 21
Bills @ Jets
Monday | 8:15 ET
Week 1 will conclude with an emotional divisional matchup in New Jersey on 9/11. Between the heaviness of the date and the pent-up excitement surround the new, Aaron Rodgers-led Jets offense, don’t be surprised if this one starts off a bit slow.
Both the Bills and the Jets project to have top 5 defenses in 2023, with the Jets in real contention to have the strongest unit. Reigning DPOY Sauce Gardener headlines New York’s dangerous secondary. His battles with Stefon Diggs will likely be worth the price of admission. The Bills had the highest average depth of target (ADOT) last season and were first in air yard percentage, which means that they gained their yards by consistently airing it out. The Jets defense had the highest PFF coverage grade last year. It truly will be a battle of the best of that side of the ball.
On offense, look for the Jets to showcase their new quarterback and his connection with second-year WR Garret Wilson. Those two alongside Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall will cause Buffalo’s defense issues. In the end, the Jets will kick off the Aaron Rodgers era with an important, gritty, divisional win.
Score Prediction: Jets 17 Bills 14
Cowboys @ Giants
Sunday | 8:20 ET
Would it even be the NFL if the Cowboys didn’t play in primetime week 1? Dallas heads into the season with arguably the strongest roster in the league. They have Super Bowl aspirations. However, these hopes depend on the play of quarterback Dak Prescott, who is coming off of the worst season of his career. As long as he avoids throwing 15 interceptions again, the Cowboys are true contenders. Week 1 against Big Blue will be a nice test for Prescott. The Giants are looking to build off of their Wild Card-round playoff victory in 2022. There is plenty of optimism surrounding the team, and the development of Daniel Jones is something to watch for. They’ve been given a golden opportunity to grab a massive victory at home to start off the season.
On paper, the Cowboys are a tough matchup for the Giants. The Cowboys’ phenomenal offensive line will likely pave the way to a strong performance from Tony Pollard against what was the 28th ranked run defense unit last season. New York is hoping that the offseason addition of Bobby Okereke can help with this. The Giants played the highest amount of cover 0 in the NFL last year, which should cause the Cowboys to scheme up many deep passes in hopes of catching New York with no deep safeties. Watch for CeeDee Lamb to have field day against Wink Martindale’s man-heavy scheme. Lamb had the second highest PFF receiving grade vs. man coverage last season.
On the other side of the ball, the Giants need OC Brian Daboll to call a nearly perfect game against the Cowboys’ outstanding defense. Led by Micah Parsons, the unit has a top-2 pass rush, combined with a secondary that is almost entire consisting of household names. Saquon Barkley needs to produce for the Giants to have a chance. Expect to see Daniel Jones throw a high amount of bootlegs, as well as use his legs more than usual. For the Giants to win, Jones needs to have a fantastic game.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 31 Giants 17
49ers @ Steelers
Sunday | 1:00 ET
This is a sneaky-fun matchup. Everyone knows about the talent the 49ers have accumulated, both on offense and defense. But the trading of Trey Lance has ruffled some feathers. San Francisco is all in on former 7th round draft pick Brock Purdy at quarterback. It will be fascinating to see if he can recreate what he did last year in Kyle Shanahan’s west coast offense. On the other side of things, the Steelers are riding a preseason high. The national question around Pittsburgh’s squad is whether or not Kenny Pickett is the quarterback of the future. He, and the entire starting offense, finished the 2022 season on a heater and also looked very strong the in preseason. Don’t be surprised if they are able to put some points up at home against the stellar 49ers defense.
Schematically, the 49ers are a bit of a question mark on defense heading into week 1. With the departure of former DC DeMeco Ryans, things will change a bit. Regardless, the unit will be strong no matter what philosophy new DC Steve Wilks implements due to the talent it possesses. Kenny Pickett will have to keep a close eye on (newly paid) former DPOY Nick Bosa off of the edge, as well as be weary of Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw surveying the middle of the field (the strongest linebacking duo in the NFL).
On the other side of the ball, the Steelers need their impressive pass rush to perform. The 49ers have arguably the most diverse set of offensive weapons in the NFL, and they will need to use them all on Sunday. Purdy will have to find soft spots in Pittsburgh’s zones and avoid making bad mistakes. The Steelers always have a stout defense. Even though San Fransisco’s roster is better on paper, Mike Tomlin- with the benefit of home field advantage- is going to find a way to force the upset.
Score Prediction: Steelers 21 49ers 20
Honorable Mentions
Panthers @ Falcons
Sunday | 1:00 ET
If you want to watch, budding, high potential, young players, this is the game for you. Number one draft pick QB Bryce Young will be starting his first game for Carolina, while Bijan Robinson (the number nine draft pick) will make his long awaited debut for Atlanta. It will be excited to watch their careers take off.
Score Prediction: Falcons 21 Panthers 20
Texans @ Ravens
Sunday | 1:00 ET
Number two draft pick CJ Stroud will start at quarterback for the Texans, marking a new era for their franchise. Houston’s offense could be much more competent than many think around the league. Meanwhile, this Ravens offensive core could have their most electric season to date in 2023. Rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers tore it up in the preseason, and Baltimore’s replacement of Todd Monken at OC over the offseason makes this game extra interesting.
Score Prediction: Ravens 30 Texans 17
Most Intriguing Matchup
Dolphins @ Chargers
Sunday | 4:25 ET
This game should be circled on every NFL fan’s calendar. Even though it’s only week 1, this game could have playoff implications considering the tough divisions that these teams play in. Both teams are star studded on both sides of the ball, including WR Tyreek Hill, RB Austin Ekeler, CB Xavien Howard, EDGE Khalil Mack, EDGE Joey Bosa, and S Derwin James. This will be the Dolphins’ first Sunday with Vic Fangio helming the defense, who will play a massive factor in this season. He is faced with a tough test in the Justin Herbert-led Chargers offense. The battle of new Chargers OC Kellen Moore and new Dolphins DC Vic Fangio will be exciting to watch unfold.
This season, Kellen Moore will look to expand the offensive playbook and use Justin Herbert to the height of his abilities. However, this may not be the week to air it out. The Dolphins will likely adopt a two-high-safety defense and focus on preventing deep passes and creating interceptions. If they are able to force turnovers (unlike 2022), they could take over. The Chargers will have to move down the field methodically, using the running game in addition to quick passes. They have the perfect weapons to do this in Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Willams, and Quentin Johnston.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins will have to worry about a fully healthy Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack on the other side of the ball. As long as Tua avoids getting knocked out by one of the Chargers edges, he should be able to find Hill and Waddle for some nice gains. Still, the Chargers will pull through in a tight contest.
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