Sunday | 1:00 ET
This is an intriguing matchup. Rookie QB CJ Stroud has looked great in his first five NFL starts. The Texans offense has been efficient and Stroud has been a huge part of this. He will face a difficult task in attempting to keep it up against the New Orleans Saints’ defense. The Texans rank 9th in PFF offensive grade, but the Saints rank 3rd in PFF defensive grade. Will Stroud be able to operate under more difficult conditions than he faced in Weeks 1-5?
The most interesting matchup is definitely the Houston offense versus the New Orleans defense. Diving into it deeper, Stroud has been amazing. He looks like he’s been doing this for years. He already has two 300 yard games, and 1461 passing yards in total. He’s thrown seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. These are not typical rookie numbers. Stroud has been spreading the ball all around his offense, from WR Nico Collins and veteran Robert Woods to rookie WR Tank Dell and TE Dalton Schultz. It’s been fun watching this offense play.
Meanwhile, the Saints have been dominant on the defensive side of the ball. They’ve allowed the 3rd least amount of yards out of teams that haven’t had their bye week yet, and 3rd least passing yards under the same parameters. The strength is in the secondary. Veteran cornerback Isaac Yiadom has been a revalation so far, ranking 1st out of 109 eligible CBs in PFF grade. Safety Tyrann Mathieu is also back making plays with New Orleans, taking a Mac Jones interception to the house last week. Demario Davis rounds out the middle of the field and is the leader of this defense.
The way for the Texans to score against this unit is through the ground. This is an issue for them and their insanely beaten-up offensive line. RB Damien Pierce hasn’t had anywhere to go. Houston will probably resort to the passing game simply due to their lack of efficiency on the ground. The already-impressive Saints secondary will be able to hone in even more on the passing game, and probably cause CJ Stroud many problems.
The other side of the ball provides a matchup between two bottom half of the league units. The Saints have leaned into RB Alvin Kamara each of the last two weeks, and they will certainly do it in Week 5 against the 31st ranked PFF run defense. Houston’s defense has also given up the least passing touchdowns in the NFL this year (three). Expect the Saints to grab the lead and pound the rock.
I expect the Saints to come out on top. The weakness of the Texans’ run game coupled with the strength of the Saints’ secondary is a horrible combination for Houston. Forced to air it out, CJ Stroud will throw his first NFL interception (the Saints are tied for 2nd in NFL with seven). The New Orleans offense will be able to do just enough, and the Saints will head home happy.