In a stark turnaround from last week, Chicago finally finds positivity surrounding its team. Once most (including myself) had lost nearly all hope, they reeled us back in with a blowout victory over the Commanders on Thursday Night. Now, everything looks different. A matchup against the Vikings that seemed daunting just one week ago now seems very winnable. With Justin Jefferson’s injury and Chicago’s offensive resurgence, the Bears have a chance to keep the momentum rolling.
The Vikings are heading in the opposite direction. With playoff hopes to begin the year, they have also only managed one win. Things are only getting more dire with Jefferson- arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL- heading to the IR. Both teams need a win in Week 6 if they want any chance of being in the playoff graphic this winter.
Justin Fields and the Bears offense has been humming over the last two weeks. Though the competition hasn’t been top tier, the Commanders’ unit is solid, and the Minnesota defense is nothing to be too scared of. The Vikings rank 9th in passing yards allowed and 5th in passing touchdowns allowed. Fields has thrown for four touchdowns in each of the last two weeks, in arguably the two best games of his career. He is as hot as he has ever been right now, and wide receiver DJ Moore is a big part of that. He is coming off of a 230 yard, three touchdown performance on Thursday. Vikings CB Akayleb Evans has been alright this year, but on the other side Byron Murphy Jr. ranks 93rd in PFF grade this season for cornerbacks. Moore certainly could put up big numbers again.
Minnesota’s linebacking duo ranks extremely highly on PFF through five weeks, at 7th and 10th respectively out of 81 players. Jordan Hicks has the 5th highest coverage grade in his position, so Fields might want to stay away from the middle of the field.
The main weakness of Minnesota’s defense is its pass rush. The unit ranks 31st in PFF pass rush grade (only behind the Bears). They have names on the edge in Danielle Hunter (who does already have 6 sacks) and Marcus Davenport, but still find themselves in the bottom half of the NFL in sacks and QB pressures. If Fields has as much time in the pocket as he had last week, I see no reason why his hot streak doesn’t continue.
On the other side of the ball, things are a bit less clear. On paper, it’s simple. Chicago has given up the third most points in the NFL and rank 31st in PFF defensive grade, while the Vikings offense is great, ranking 5th in PFF offensive grade. However, there is one aspect of the game that these metics are ignoring: injuries. It remains to be seen what the Viking offense will look like without superstar WR Justin Jefferson, but it certainly won’t be any better. On the other side of the ball, the Bears defense is not good. But, it has been beat up. Number one CB Jaylon Johnson returns from injury this week, along with promising second-year nickel CB Kyler Gordon, and hopefully safety Eddie Jackson. The coverage numbers should improve a bit.
Minnesota ranks 8th in PFF passing grade and 29th in PFF rushing grade. Its strength is in its passing game, and this dynamic will change drastically on Sunday. Luckily for QB Kirk Cousins, the Vikings boast a phenomenal offensive tackle duo in Christian Darrisaw and Tyler O’Neill, 4th and 6th ranked PFF grades out of 71 qualified tackles, respectively. Ezra Cleveland and Ed Engram have both also been above average inside, so the offensive line is very strong. Chicago likely won’t be able to force any pressure, which a major difference-maker in their victory last week. Cousins will have plenty of time to look for TJ Hockenson and Jordan Addison, but I don’t think that the offense will be anywhere near as efficient without Jefferson, especially in the first week without him.
Ultimately, all signs point to the Bears winning on Sunday. They’re almost entirely healthy, the offensive line is getting better every week, Justin Fields and Luke Getsy are finally on the same page, DJ Moore is an insanely good player, and the Vikings floundering right now after losing their best player. The Bears are trending up and the Vikings are trending down. It almost makes too much sense which makes me think that they’ll find a way to screw this up, but I’ve got to stick with my gut.
I think that DJ Moore has yet another 100+ yard game, and Justin Fields turns in another good performance. Donta Foreman will fill in just fine at running back, and the Bears will show out at Soldier Field.