Week 7 should bring a fun week of NFL football. There are three fantastic matchups that stand out above the rest, each in a different time slot! Here is a compilation of my thoughts regarding the week’s most interesting games, along with schematic information and what to watch for this weekend! Each matchup has a score prediction with reasoning. Skip to the end to learn about the most intriguing game this weekend!
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Lions at Ravens
Sunday | 1:00 ET
This is a fun matchup on both sides of the ball. In Week 7, the 5-1 Lions will hit to road to face the 4-2 Ravens. Both teams boast top-nine offensive and defensive units according to PFF. Baltimore is probably a bit more desperate for the win than Detroit due to the tight AFC North they find themselves in, but Lions head coach Dan Campbell has gotten his team to play with an eternal chip on its shoulder. Both teams will be hungry to grab a marquee victory.
When the Lions have had the ball this year, they have been very efficient. OC Ben Johnson has Jared Goff looking like one of the best quarterbacks in the league, already with 11 touchdowns and 1618 passing yards (both good for 5th in the NFL). The Lions have the first ranked passing PFF grade through six weeks and the second ranked overall offensive grade. The offensive line, headlined by offensive tackle Penei Sewell and center Frank Ragnow, are arguably the strongest unit in the NFL. Sewell and Ragnow are ranked 3rd and 8th in their positions according to PFF, respectively, in addition to offensive guard Graham Glasgow who is also ranked 3rd out of 79 qualified guards.
Meanwhile, the Ravens defense has been good this year, especially against the pass. They’ve given up the 3rd least passing yards in 2023. Geno Stone has been a standout performer from the free safety position. He already has three interceptions on the season and is ranked 2nd in PFF coverage grade for safeties. The Ravens hope that he will be able to disrupt Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and make Detroit rely on its dinged-up run game (David Montgomery is likely to miss a few weeks, and Jahmyr Gibbs has missed the last two). LB Roquan Smith is also phenomenal in the middle of the field, so hamper expectations for TE Sam LaPorta. This battle features a head on collision between the strength of the Lions offense and the strength of the Ravens defense. It will be interesting to see what gives.
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens offense has been good… until it reaches the red zone. They haven’t been able to capitalize. Still, QB Lamar Jackson has been great. He has already racked up four rushing touchdowns, which is more than he scored in full seasons in both 2021 and 2022. However, Baltimore still relies on its run game. The team ranks 4th in rushing yards in 2023, even with the loss of starting RB JK Dobbins early in the year. Similar to the flip side of the ball, the Ravens’ strength on offense will face the most daunting aspect of the Lions’ defense: its run defense. Detroit has nearly been the equivalent of a brick wall this year when it comes to stopping the run. The unit ranks 1st in PFF run defense grade and has given up the least rushing yards in the NFL (388). The Ravens will be forced to pass the ball, so TE Mark Andrews and rookie WR Zay Flowers are going to have to step up. Aiden Hutchinson is terrifying off of the edge for the Lions, but Baltimore has two solid tackles in Morgan Moses and Ronnie Stanley. Lamar shouldn’t be under too much duress, which could put some pressure on the Detroit secondary. Still, I expect Hutchinson to get home a few times.
At first glance, I though that this would be a relatively high scoring matchup. Two good defenses, but very efficient offenses as well. However, upon further inspection I expect Lions-Ravens to be a low scoring affair. Each teams’ offensive superpower will be neutralized by the defense it faces. Ultimately, I expect the Lions to win a tight game. Even without Montgomery, I think that it will be easier for Detroit to adapt and rely on its run game that it will be for Baltimore to adopt a more pass-heavy approach.
Score Prediction: Lions 20 Ravens 16
Chargers at Chiefs
Sunday | 4:25 ET
Week 7’s afternoon slate presents an AFC West showdown at Arrowhead Stadium. The Kansas City Chiefs haven’t quite looked like themselves this year on offense, but still find themselves at 5-1. The defense has been picking up the slack, having allowed the third least points through seven weeks. Meanwhile, LA has been middling around this season, sitting at 2-3. The team is coming fresh out of a tough, last possession loss to the Cowboys. They do not grade out well defensively, and might give the Chiefs a chance to get their offense rolling again.
Kansas City has made NFL fans grow accustomed to greatness. So, even though the team is seventh in points this season, the narrative is that they have been struggling. It is true though, this team usually would be top-three in this category. They are coming off of a 17-point performance against an abysmal Denver Broncos defense.
Head coach Andy Reid’s offense centers around the quick game. However, even this type of offense needs to hit on a deep ball every once in a while to keep the defense honest. This hasn’t been happening, but this may change in Week 7. Both of LA’s starting safeties rank in the bottom quarter of the league in PFF grade this season, and starting cornerbacks Ja’Sir Taylor and Michael Davis rank 107th and 105th out of 111 qualified cornerbacks this year, respectively. As long as star quarterback Patrick Mahomes avoids CB Asante Samuel Jr, he should be able to push the ball downfield at will. I expect to see several long completions to Mahomes’ young weapons. After the Chiefs take over the lead, running back Isaiah Pacheco will take over.
On the other side of the ball, the Chargers have numerous weapons on offense. However, they’ve only surpassed the 30-point mark once, and will be facing an underrated Chiefs defensive unit on Sunday. CB Trent McDuffie ranks 1st out of 111 qualified cornerbacks according to PFF, and Chris Jones is an absolute game-wrecker at defensive tackle. It will be interesting to see the battle between McDuffie and Chargers WR Keenan Allen-who has had a fantastic year- in the slot. QB Justin Herbert will probably try to attack CR L’Jarious Sneed more frequently, but Allen has to have a big game if the Chargers are going to come out on top. RB Austin Ekeler is finally back healthy, so he will provide a nice boost the the offense.
In the end, Kansas City comes out on top. They’ve only lost once so far and I can’t see that changing at home against such a poor secondary. Mahomes just might have his best game of the season.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 28 Chargers 20
Game of the Week
Dolphins at Eagles
Sunday | 8:20 ET
This is one of the best matchups of 2023 thus far. The 5-1 Miami Dolphins will head to a hostile environment in Philadelphia to face off against the 5-1 Eagles. The Dolphins offense is off to an insane start this season, including a 70-point trouncing of the Broncos. They have scored the most points in the NFL by a wide margin (223, next closest is at 184). QB Tua Tagovailoa is playing like an MVP candidate, WR Tyreek Hill has the most receiving yards in the league and is on pace for over 2,000, and the team is averaging 6.5 yards per carry (which is also significantly higher than second place in the category, 5.3). Meanwhile, the Eagles are not playing to the best of their abilities, but are still finding ways to win. They will need to pick it up against a highly dangerous Dolphins team on Sunday night.
The Dolphins are must-watch television on offense this year. Head coach Mike McDaniel knows exactly what his personnel excels at, and has created an offense that perfectly complements its abilities. The amount of pre-snap motion that they use is insane. Tyreek Hill, who is already able to out-run 99% of NFL players, is frequently used in pre-snap motions in a way that he is able to get a full running start leading into the play. This is almost unfair for defensive backs, and genius by McDaniel. The Dolphins may be forced to lean on the passing game a bit more than they have had to, due to Philadelphia’s run defense. The Eagles have given up the third least rushing yards in 2023. Maybe making Miami one-dimensional on offense will prove to be the way to slow them down. However, this will be a very difficult task.
Fortunately for the Eagles, the Dolphins are susceptible on defense. Despite ranking 5th in overall defensive PFF grading, they have given up the 7th most points in the NFL this season. Safeties Deshon Elliot and Jevon Holland grade out very well, ranking 7th and 2nd out of 84 qualified safeties according to PFF, but QB Jalen Hurts can attack Miami’s cornerbacks. The Dolphins are average against the run, so RB De’Andre Swift should be involved as well. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio runs a conservative defense, so don’t expect Philly to be launching deep balls left and right. Instead, they might adopt a quicker approach to this matchup, or at least focus on medium length passes.
Ultimately, I think that the Dolphins steal this one on the road. The offense is too potent, and the Eagles haven’t quite hit their stride yet. It will be close, but Miami prevail will prevail.