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This is a fun matchup on both sides of the ball. In Week 7, the 5-1 Lions will hit to road to face the 4-2 Ravens. Both teams boast top-nine offensive and defensive units according to PFF. Baltimore is probably a bit more desperate for the win than Detroit due to the tight AFC North they find themselves in, but Lions head coach Dan Campbell has gotten his team to play with an eternal chip on its shoulder. Both teams will be hungry to grab a marquee victory.
When the Lions have had the ball this year, they have been very efficient. OC Ben Johnson has Jared Goff looking like one of the best quarterbacks in the league, already with 11 touchdowns and 1618 passing yards (both good for 5th in the NFL). The Lions have the first ranked passing PFF grade through six weeks and the second ranked overall offensive grade. The offensive line, headlined by offensive tackle Penei Sewell and center Frank Ragnow, are arguably the strongest unit in the NFL. Sewell and Ragnow are ranked 3rd and 8th in their positions according to PFF, respectively, in addition to offensive guard Graham Glasgow who is also ranked 3rd out of 79 qualified guards.
Meanwhile, the Ravens defense has been good this year, especially against the pass. They’ve given up the 3rd least passing yards in 2023. Geno Stone has been a standout performer from the free safety position. He already has three interceptions on the season and is ranked 2nd in PFF coverage grade for safeties. The Ravens hope that he will be able to disrupt Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and make Detroit rely on its dinged-up run game (David Montgomery is likely to miss a few weeks, and Jahmyr Gibbs has missed the last two). LB Roquan Smith is also phenomenal in the middle of the field, so hamper expectations for TE Sam LaPorta. This battle features a head on collision between the strength of the Lions offense and the strength of the Ravens defense. It will be interesting to see what gives.
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens offense has been good… until it reaches the red zone. They haven’t been able to capitalize. Still, QB Lamar Jackson has been great. He has already racked up four rushing touchdowns, which is more than he scored in full seasons in both 2021 and 2022. However, Baltimore still relies on its run game. The team ranks 4th in rushing yards in 2023, even with the loss of starting RB JK Dobbins early in the year. Similar to the flip side of the ball, the Ravens’ strength on offense will face the most daunting aspect of the Lions’ defense: its run defense. Detroit has nearly been the equivalent of a brick wall this year when it comes to stopping the run. The unit ranks 1st in PFF run defense grade and has given up the least rushing yards in the NFL (388). The Ravens will be forced to pass the ball, so TE Mark Andrews and rookie WR Zay Flowers are going to have to step up. Aiden Hutchinson is terrifying off of the edge for the Lions, but Baltimore has two solid tackles in Morgan Moses and Ronnie Stanley. Lamar shouldn’t be under too much duress, which could put some pressure on the Detroit secondary. Still, I expect Hutchinson to get home a few times.
At first glance, I though that this would be a relatively high scoring matchup. Two good defenses, but very efficient offenses as well. However, upon further inspection I expect Lions-Ravens to be a low scoring affair. Each teams’ offensive superpower will be neutralized by the defense it faces. Ultimately, I expect the Lions to win a tight game. Even without Montgomery, I think that it will be easier for Detroit to adapt and rely on its run game that it will be for Baltimore to adopt a more pass-heavy approach.