Week 7 may have been the most entertaining week of the NFL season! Hopefully Week 8 brings the same excitement! Here is a compilation of my thoughts regarding the week’s most interesting games, along with helpful stats and what to watch for this weekend! Each matchup has a score prediction with reasoning. Skip to the end to learn about the most intriguing game this weekend!
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Bears at Chargers
Sunday | 8:20 ET
The Bears will face off against the Chargers on Sunday Night Football this week, in a surprisingly intriguing matchup. With quarterback Justin Fields still dealing with a dislocated right thumb, the Bears will trot out undrafted rookie QB Tyson Bagent. Last week, in his first NFL start, Bagent led the Bears to their first home win in over a year. If he can scrape together another win, this time in primetime, Justin Fields’ future in Chicago could be in serious danger. Meanwhile, the Chargers are sitting a half of a game ahead of the Bears at 2-4. They are coming off of an unsurprising loss to Kansas City. Once again, their star-studded roster is simply not getting it done. If LA finds a way to lose to the Bears, head coach Brandon Staley will be firmly on the hot seat (if he isn’t already).
On offense, Chicago has actually been generally good in 2023. The Bears rank third in PFF run grade, and have scored the 11th most points in the NFL. Justin Fields was on fire before he got injured, and Tyson Bagent stepped in last week and looked good. The offense looked much more crisp with him under center. The gameplan was heavily focused on quick passes. Bagent was extremely decisive with the football, which allowed the Bears to stay consistently ahead of the sticks and avoid taking sacks. Since Bagent is still inexperienced and last week’s gameplan led to a win, I expect a very similar against the Chargers. Getting the ball out quickly would help to limit Khalil Mack’s presence off of the edge (although the Chargers only rank 22nd in PFF pash rush grade). Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy wants his offense to be YAC (yards after the catch) based, and Bagent allows them to lean into this. LA has given up the fifth most YAC this year, so Getsy’s plan just may work again.
Also, Travis Kelce decimated the Charger defense last week from the tight end position (179 yards and one touchdown on 12 catches). Kelce is a future first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, and Bears TE Cole Kmet is nowhere near his level. However, look for Kmet to catch a few balls (he had zero catches last week) and maybe find the endzone.
On the other side of the ball, Chargers QB Justin Herbert has been struggling over the past couple of weeks. However, this is only due to the caliber of defenses he’s been facing off against (Cowboys and Chiefs). He should be able to get back on track against the Bears, who rank 25th in PFF coverage grade. This feels a little low, especially considering that Chicago’s secondary dealt with injuries to 4 out of its 5 starting defensive backs over the first seven weeks. Everyone is healthy now, and the unit did a great job last week, albeit against Brian Hoyer. Still, Justin Herbert should have a much easier time moving the ball through the air compared to the last couple of weeks.
CB Jaylon Johnson is the strong-point of the unit, ranking 1st out of 117 qualified cornerbacks in PFF coverage grade. Fortunately for Herbert, Johnson has only played 2.5% of his snaps in the slot this year, where his favorite target, Keenan Allen, mainly resides. Second year nickelback Kyler Gordon will be seeing the most of Allen, and will have to step up if the Bears want to avoid a big day for the veteran wide receiver.
The Bears have given up the fourth most passing yards in the NFL this year, compared to the eighth least rushing yards. Look for a big day out of Justin Herbert, and another quiet game from running back Austin Ekeler in terms of rushing.
Overall, I think that SNF will bring America a close game. Even though I see Tyson Bagent putting together another solid performance against a weak defense, this is too important of a game for the Chargers and their coaching staff. If Brandon Staley can’t find a way to scheme Justin Herbert to victory over an undrafted former D-II QB, he’ll be one foot out of the door.
Score Prediction: Chargers 24 Bears 20
Bengals at 49ers
Sunday | 4:25 ET
In what could be a Super Bowl preview, Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals will travel to San Fransisco to face off against the 49ers on Sunday. The Bengals got off to a slow start thanks to Burrow’s training camp calf injury, but he looked pretty healthy in Week 6 and is coming off of a bye week. Cincinnati will try to reestablish themselves as a top-tier NFL team in a marquee matchup against the vaunted 49ers, who rank 2nd in the NFL in overall PFF grade. However, they will most likely be without their starting quarterback, Brock Purdy. Sam Darnold would have to step in, on an offense that is already without star wide receiver Deebo Samuel.
The Bengals started off the season very poorly on offense, and the metrics still show this. However, Joe Burrow seems to be healthy now, and the team is coming off of a 34 point performance against the Cardinals, and a 17 point game against a solid Seattle defense that was enough for the win. Still, the Cincinnati offense will be tasked with scoring on the insanely talented 49ers defense. Edge rusher Nick Bosa headlines the group, ranking 2nd in both PFF run defense and pass rush grade among edges in 2023. The Bengals offense line will have to step up against him, Javon Hargrave, and Arik Armstead. The 49ers know how to get to the quarterback, and can easily take over the game this way.
When the 49ers have the ball, things could look a bit different. With Darnold under center, the offense may look a little less seamless than it normally does. Fortunately for them, the Bengals defense has underperformed up to this point. It ranks 29th in both coverage and run defense grades according to PFF. Trey Hendrickson is great at times off of the edge, but the unit lacks star-power. The cornerback position is a weakness for the team, so I’m sure that Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan will find a way to exploit this.
Interestingly, the Bengals have given up the least yards after catch in the entire NFL this year. San Fransisco’s west coast offense relies upon YAC, ranking fifth in YAC per completion this year. Without Deebo Samuel, they already were losing a top contributor to the category. Combine that with a matchup against a defense that is quick to tackle receivers and an injury to the starting quarterback, and the 49ers just might have a three-game losing streak on their hands.
I wasn’t planning on picking the upset, but I changed my mind while writing the piece. Week 8 is a perfect storm for the Bengals. I believe that Burrow is now healthy, while the 49ers are down Purdy and Deebo. Cincinnati has won two in a row, while San Fransisco has lost two in a row. I think the trends continue.
Score Prediction: Bengals 24 49ers 17
Game of the Week
Browns at Seahawks
Sunday | 4:05 ET
The Browns will pay the Seahawks a visit on Sunday afternoon at Lumen Field in Seattle. Both teams come in at 4-2 and off of a win. Cleveland’s defense has been the best in the NFL in 2023. It will be tasked with stopping a dangerous Seattle offense that is loaded with weapons.
The Seahawks offense has been good this year, sitting at 8th in offensive PFF grade. It has been able to both run and pass the ball well. DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba lock down the wide receiver position. Metcalf was out last week and is iffy to play this week, but would be a big boost back into this offense. Running back Kenneth Walker III already has six touchdowns on the year, and is coming off of a 105 yard rushing performance in Week 7.
Yards will be tougher to come by this week, however, against the daunting Cleveland defense. Even coming off of its worst performance by far- giving up 38 points to a Gardner Minchew-led Colts team- this unit has given up the least yards in the NFL by a wide margin. Edge rusher Myles Garrett currently has the best odds to win Defensive Player of Year, and he is a one-man wrecking crew. He is third in the NFL in sacks with 7.5, and even blocked a kick last week in an insanely athletic play. Cleveland’s pash rush ranks first in PFF grading in 2023; it is the strength of the defense.
Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith will have to be decisive with the ball and find receivers quickly. Seattle is 24th in average depth of target (ADOT), so they haven’t been relying on the long ball this year. This works in their favor, but they’ll still face a big challenge on Sunday.
On the other side of the ball, the Browns have struggled offensively. However, they are coming off of their most impressive performance of the year putting up 39 points against Indianapolis. Ever since star RB Nick Chubb got injured, the unit has appeared a bit lost. Now, with QB Deshaun Watson re-injuring himself last week, Cleveland really is in a tough spot. To make matters more difficult, the Seahawks have some beasts on defense. Linebacker Bobby Wagner has been stellar this year, particularly against the run. 2023 5th overall pick Devon Witherspoon has been fantastic as well, ranking 1st out of 115 qualified cornerbacks in PFF grade. Only seven games into his career, he already has two sacks and one pick-six to his name. Backup QB PJ Walker will have a tough time moving the ball against this stout defense.
Ultimately, I see the Seahawks winning this game. The Browns defense is phenomenal, but showed a bit of weakness last week. However, the pick is based on the other matchup. I know the Browns scored 38 last week, but I can’t see Walker doing this again, especially against a good defense in a raucous environment.