NFL Week 9 Preview | Schematics and Storylines

Week 9’s slate is extremely promising. There are four fantastic matchups this week, all in different time slots. Here is a compilation of my thoughts regarding the week’s most interesting games, along with helpful stats and what to watch for this weekend! Each matchup has a score prediction with reasoning. Skip to the end to learn about the most intriguing game this weekend!

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Bills at Bengals

Cowboys at Eagles

Seahawks at Ravens

Game of the Week

Most Intriguing Matchups

Bills at Bengals

Sunday | 8:20 ET

In Week 9’s edition of Sunday Night Football, the Buffalo Bills will head to Cincinnati to play the Bengals in what is sure to be an emotional evening. The last time these two teams met in Paycor Stadium, Damar Hamlin’s serious medical emergency cut the game short. Miraculously, Hamlin has already made a full recovery and is on the Bills roster. If he finds his way onto the field on Sunday night, it would be an amazing moment.

Shifting gears, Bills-Bengals presents a high-caliber matchup. The Bills come in at 5-3, the Bengals at 4-3. Cincinnati stumbled out of the gates due to quarterback Joe Burrow’s injury sustained just before the season began. However, he and the Bengals finally seem to have found their footing. Burrow looked 100% last week in a three-touchdown performance on the road against the 49ers. The Bengals are the Bengals again, and I would not want to find myself matched up against them.

The Bengals offense is back. The Joe Burrow-Ja’Marr Chase connection is up and running again, which has opened the doors for other players. Fellow wide receiver Tee Higgins finally had a productive game last week, and even running back Joe Mixon grabbed a touchdown.

However, the Bills defense will provide another tough challenge. It has allowed the 7th least points in the NFL this season. Buffalo has done a fantastic job of putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The team ranks second in the NFL in pressures (87) and third in sacks (28). Leonard Floyd, Ed Oliver, and AJ Epenesa each already have five sacks in 2023. It will be vital for the Bengals offensive line to protect Joe Burrow.

On the other side of the ball, the Bills have been efficient. QB Josh Allen has been great. Meanwhile, the Bengals defense has had its struggles, particularly in the secondary. Safety Nick Scott ranks dead last in PFF coverage grade among safeties, and fellow safety Dax Hill also ranks in the lower half. The Bengals rank first in the NFL in average depth of target against. Teams love to air it out against the weak safeties. This is good news for Josh Allen, who excels at throwing the deep ball. WR Gabe Davis could have one of his patented long touchdowns, and look for Stefon Diggs deep down the field.

I see the Bengals coming out on top. Their offense is finally humming, and proved last week that it can put up impressive stat lines against great defenses (San Fransisco). Home field advantage will also play a role. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the most entertaining game of the weekend. The strengths and weaknesses of the teams suggest a potential shootout.

Score Prediction: Bengals 34 Bills 30

Cowboys at Eagles

Sunday | 4:25 ET

The Dallas Cowboys will head to Philadelphia to face off against the Eagles in a high-octane NFC East showdown on Sunday afternoon. Dallas comes in at 6-2, fresh off of a dominating 43-20 win over the Rams. The Eagles come in with the best record in the NFL, 7-1. Oddly enough, it still doesn’t feel like they are playing their best football.

The Eagles offense revolves around its offensive line. Left tackle Jordan Mailata ranks first in PFF grade among tackles, and right tackle Lane Johnson ranks ninth. Center Jason Kelce is arguably the best in the league, ranking fourth in PFF grade this year and Landon Dickerson is also fantastic at left guard. This collection of talent has allowed running back De’Andre Swift to be very efficient this year. He ranks 8th in the NFL in yards per carry (4.9). Cowboys edge DeMarcus Lawrence ranks first in PFF run defense grade for his position, so he may be able to cause some disruption.

In addition to the fantastic offensive line, wide receiver AJ Brown is on an otherworldly run. He recently recorded his sixth straight game with at least 125 receiving yards, setting an NFL record. It feels like as long as quarterback Jalen Hurts gets the ball in his vicinity, Brown is going to come down with it.

The Cowboys defense is excellent at creating pressure, ranking third in PFF pass rush grade. A big matchup to watch is the battle in the trenches when the Eagles have the ball. These are probably the two strongest position groups in the game, and whoever has the upper hand will tip odds in their team’s favor.

On the other side of the ball, I see Philadelphia with the upper hand. Despite not having their bye week yet, the Eagles have given up the least rushing yards in the NFL so far. Dallas has been surprisingly inefficient running the ball this season, ranking 19th in yards per carry and 18th in total rushing yards. I don’t see running back Tony Pollard having a productive game. The Cowboys will become one-dimensional and too much pressure will be put on QB Dak Prescott and the passing game’s back. WR Ceedee Lamb is fantastic, but the Eagles secondary is loaded. I expect newly acquired star defensive back Kevin Byard to see the most of Lamb. CeeDee will get his yards, but I see S Reed Blankenship, and CBs Daniel Bradberry and Darius Slay shutting down the other facets of the Dallas passing attack.

The Eagles pass rush should also be mentioned. Rookie DT Jalen Carter has been phenomenal thus far, ranking second in PFF grade among DTs. Edge rusher Hassan Reddick was second in sacks last year and is tied for eighth in the NFL this season. The Cowboys offensive line is also great, but may have some trouble this week.

I have the Eagles winning a close game. Four of Philly’s win this year have been by less than a score, and I expect Week 8 to fall into the same category. The Eagles will be able to run the ball down the field well, and the Cowboys will be one-dimensional on offense.

Score Prediction: Eagles 27 Cowboys 24

Honorable Mention

Seahawks at Ravens

Sunday | 1:00 ET

Seahawks-Ravens couldn’t be ignored. All four units are top-third of the league groups. The Ravens offense is dynamic with QB Lamar Jackson, TE Mark Andrews, and WR Zay Flowers. Still, it revolves around the rushing game. Baltimore ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have given up the sixth least rushing yards this year and have the seventh highest PFF run defense grade.

Switching sides, the Ravens secondary has been astounding this season, ranking first in PFF coverage grade. S Geno Stone has turned a corner, and S Kyle Hamilton and CB Marlon Humphrey are amazing in coverage. Seattle’s offense is also loaded. WR DK Metcalf and RB Kenneth Walker III headline the unit. In all, this should just be a fun game to watch unfold. Ravens home games are always low scoring, so expect a gritty, defensive battle.

Score Prediction: Ravens 21 Seahawks 17

Game of the Week

Dolphins at Chiefs

Sunday | 9:30 ET

This is about as marquee of a matchup as one could draw up. The Dolphins and Chiefs will head to Frankfurt, Germany to give European fans a real taste of NFL football this Sunday. It will feel a bit weird watching such an important game at 9:30 AM (or even earlier if you are west of the Eastern Time Zone), but make sure to set your alarms for this one.

Both teams come with a 6-2 record. The Dolphins have scored the most points in the NFL while ranking first in both PFF passing and rushing grade. Meanwhile, Kansas City has been led by its defense in 2023 (which has given up the fifth least points in the NFL) while still trotting out the best quarterback in the league- Patrick Mahomes- and future Hall of Fame tight end- Travis Kelce- on offense. There should be some fun in Frankfurt.

There isn’t much left to be said about the Dolphins offense. QB Tua Tagovailoa has done an excellent job of getting the ball to wide receivers Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. Hill has a true case for MVP, as he leads the NFL with already over 1,000 receiving yards. Miami’s rushing attack is also the most efficient in the league, averaging 5.9 yards per rush. There is nothing this offense can’t do, so it would make sense to attack Kansas City’s weakness: its run defense. The Chiefs rank 25th in PFF run defense grade. Interestingly, despite this grade, the unit has only given up two rushing touchdowns all year, which is second-best in the NFL. Miami should be able to move down the field with the run game, but may have to punch it in through the air. This stat is made even more interesting considering that Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert leads the entire NFL in rushing touchdowns. Will he find the endzone on Sunday?

On the other side of the ball, the matchup just as compelling. The Chiefs offense has been down this year. Besides Mahomes, Kelce, and a few stud interior lineman, there isn’t much else. Luckily for Kansas City, these players are good enough to carry the entire offense. However, last week the Chiefs were only able to score nine points in a disappointing loss to the Denver Broncos. Notably, Mahomes had been dealing with the flu leading up to the game. He and the rest of the offense will look to get back on track against a dangerous Miami defense.

The group is flooded with star power. This includes safety Jevon Holland (ranked first out of 87 qualified safeties in PFF grade), defensive tackle Christian Wilkins (ranked 10th out of 125 qualified defensive tackles in PFF grade), edge rusher Jaelan Phillips, and newly returned superstar cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is known for his variation of quarters, which means that the Dolphins are a bend-don’t-break type of defense (I did a deep-dive into this subject over the offseason). This plays into Kansas City’s hands, as head coach Andy Reid prefers the Chiefs to get the majority of their yards after the catch (YAC). In other words, you can’t go deep on the Dolphins, but that’s not the Chiefs want to do anyways. I think that it will be important for the Chiefs to establish the run game. This will make their play-action passes more effective and open the field up.

Ultimately, I see the Dolphins winning in Germany. Tyreek Hill will go off in his revenge game, and the newly invigorated Miami defense will slow down Patrick Mahomes just enough to get the victory. As much as I want this game to be a shootout, I expect a lower scoring game considering how Miami has fared against good defenses and Kansas City’s early-season offensive struggles.

Score Prediction: Dolphins 24 Chiefs 17

Read my Bears-Saints preview here!