Sunday | 9:30 ET
This is about as marquee of a matchup as one could draw up. The Dolphins and Chiefs will head to Frankfurt, Germany to give European fans a real taste of NFL football this Sunday. It will feel a bit weird watching such an important game at 9:30 AM (or even earlier if you are west of the Eastern Time Zone), but make sure to set your alarms for this one.
Both teams come with a 6-2 record. The Dolphins have scored the most points in the NFL while ranking first in both PFF passing and rushing grade. Meanwhile, Kansas City has been led by its defense in 2023 (which has given up the fifth least points in the NFL) while still trotting out the best quarterback in the league- Patrick Mahomes- and future Hall of Fame tight end- Travis Kelce- on offense. There should be some fun in Frankfurt.
There isn’t much left to be said about the Dolphins offense. QB Tua Tagovailoa has done an excellent job of getting the ball to wide receivers Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. Hill has a true case for MVP, as he leads the NFL with already over 1,000 receiving yards. Miami’s rushing attack is also the most efficient in the league, averaging 5.9 yards per rush. There is nothing this offense can’t do, so it would make sense to attack Kansas City’s weakness: its run defense. The Chiefs rank 25th in PFF run defense grade. Interestingly, despite this grade, the unit has only given up two rushing touchdowns all year, which is second-best in the NFL. Miami should be able to move down the field with the run game, but may have to punch it in through the air. This stat is made even more interesting considering that Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert leads the entire NFL in rushing touchdowns. Will he find the endzone on Sunday?
On the other side of the ball, the matchup just as compelling. The Chiefs offense has been down this year. Besides Mahomes, Kelce, and a few stud interior lineman, there isn’t much else. Luckily for Kansas City, these players are good enough to carry the entire offense. However, last week the Chiefs were only able to score nine points in a disappointing loss to the Denver Broncos. Notably, Mahomes had been dealing with the flu leading up to the game. He and the rest of the offense will look to get back on track against a dangerous Miami defense.
The group is flooded with star power. This includes safety Jevon Holland (ranked first out of 87 qualified safeties in PFF grade), defensive tackle Christian Wilkins (ranked 10th out of 125 qualified defensive tackles in PFF grade), edge rusher Jaelan Phillips, and newly returned superstar cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is known for his variation of quarters, which means that the Dolphins are a bend-don’t-break type of defense (I did a deep-dive into this subject over the offseason). This plays into Kansas City’s hands, as head coach Andy Reid prefers the Chiefs to get the majority of their yards after the catch (YAC). In other words, you can’t go deep on the Dolphins, but that’s not the Chiefs want to do anyways. I think that it will be important for the Chiefs to establish the run game. This will make their play-action passes more effective and open the field up.
Ultimately, I see the Dolphins winning in Germany. Tyreek Hill will go off in his revenge game, and the newly invigorated Miami defense will slow down Patrick Mahomes just enough to get the victory. As much as I want this game to be a shootout, I expect a lower scoring game considering how Miami has fared against good defenses and Kansas City’s early-season offensive struggles.