Week 10 is here! Here is a compilation of my thoughts regarding the week’s most interesting games, along with helpful stats and what to watch for this weekend! Each matchup has a score prediction with reasoning. Skip to the end to learn about the most intriguing game this weekend.
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Lions at Chargers
Sunday | 4:05 ET
The Lions have been fantastic in 2023. They come into this matchup against the surging Chargers at 6-2, fresh off of their bye week. The team is third in overall offensive PFF grade, and has proven to be one of the top teams in the NFC. They will face the Chargers, who are winners of two in a row. LA is getting hot and is looking for a big win against one of the league’s top powers.
Detroit’s offense has simply been great all around this season. Much of its success stems from its stellar offensive line. Center Frank Ragnow ranks fifth in PFF grade among all centers in the league, Penei Sewell ranks fourth among all offensive tackles, and Graham Glasgow ranks fifth among all guards. On the left side of the line, Taylor Decker and Jonah Jackson are also both fantastic players. This group gives the immobile Jared Goff ample time to scan the field and make the correct decision. They also pave the way for running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Montgomery has missed the last couple of games with a hamstring injury, but may return this week.
The Chargers have given up the seventh least rushing yards in the NFL, but the third most passing yards. I still expect the Lions to give LA a healthy dose of Montgomery, believing in their offensive line, but they will probably find the most success through the air. Particularly, look for WR Amon-Ra St. Brown in the slot against Ja’Sir Taylor. St. Brown should feast in this matchup.
The only way that the Chargers could shut down Detroit’s offense is if the pass rush gets home. Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa, and company recorded seven sacks this past week. With LA’s d-line finally performing like it should, it will be interesting to see it matched up against the stellar Lions offensive line.
Flipping sides, the Chargers offense should be great. RB Austin Ekeler, WR Keenan Allen, and QB Justin Herbert are all top-tier at what they do. For whatever reason, thing usually just don’t click. However, they put up 30 points in Week 8 and 20 points in Week 9 against a very good Jets defense. Maybe they will be able to carry this momentum into Week 10, but history tells me that they won’t be able to score very easily.
The Chargers rank 21st in yards per carry and 22nd in total rushing yards in 2023. Meanwhile, the Lions have given up the second least rushing yards in league. LA won’t be able to do anything on the ground. They will become one-dimensional, which is detrimental to an offense. By passing more often, star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson will get many opportunities to make game-changing plays. WR Keenan Allen has been so good this year, so he will get his. However, I think that the Lions defense will prove too stout in the long run.
Overall, I expect Jared Goff to pick apart the Chargers defense. Amon-Ra will have a huge game. LA won’t be able to gain yards on the ground and will have to resort to airing it out. Detroit will key in on the passing game and slow Justin Herbert down enough to grab the road victory.
Score Prediction: Lions 27 Chargers 20
Browns at Ravens
Sunday | 1:00 ET
Though the spread says Baltimore -6, I think that Browns-Ravens will be an entertaining matchup to watch on Sunday. Divisional AFC North games are always hard-fought, gritty games. I expect the same this week, especially with arguably the best two defenses in the league. The Ravens come in at 7-2, winners of four straight. They have a strong case for being the best team in the NFL. The way that they dismantled both the Lions and Seahawks (combined records of 11-5) by more than 30 points is immensely impressive. Cleveland is sitting at 5-3, only trailing Baltimore in the division. They lost big to the Ravens in Week 4 without QB Deshaun Watson, 28-3, and will look to gain back some pride. The defense is still top-tier and will need to perform to the height of its abilities to get a win on Sunday.
The Ravens offense is phenomenal. There is nothing it can’t do. Against Detroit, they rode QB Lamar Jackson’s arm to the win. He threw for 357 yards and 3 touchdowns. Typically, the rushing attack is the focal point. Just last week, RB Keaton Mitchell ran for 138 yards while Gus Edwards accounted for 52 yards and 2 touchdowns all against a good Seahawks defense. In addition, the quarterback obviously runs very well, and the Ravens even have a top-3 receiving tight end in the NFL in Mark Andrews. Baltimore is first in the NFL in rushing yards, first in rushing touchdowns, and second in yards per carry. They are also fifth in yards per pass attempt.
The Cleveland Browns defense will be tasked with slowing down this beast of an offense. This group started of the season on a generational run (especially in terms of rush defense), but have come back to Earth. Still, it is a top unit with a lot of talent. They rank first in PFF pash rush grade. Edge rusher Myles Garrett is a top-five player in the NFL and already has 9.5 sacks (second in NFL). In addition, Cleveland has given up the least passing yards in the league (by over 100 yards). CB Denzel Ward and S Juan Thronhill headline the secondary.
I expect Mark Andrews to play a huge factor. Though linebackers Anthony Walker Jr. and Jeremiah Owusa-Koramoah are great against the run, they do not grade out well in coverage.
Flipping sides, the Ravens have a major advantage. Headlined by star linebacker Roquan Smith (fourth in PFF grade among LBs) and a fantastic secondary, Baltimore has given up the least points in the league in 2023 (just ahead of Cleveland in second place). They allowed just six points to a potent Lions offense earlier in the year. The secondary ranks second in PFF coverage grade and has allowed the least net yards per pass attempt (again, just ahead of Cleveland in second place). Safety Kyle Hamilton is so dynamic and is used in a multitude of different ways. He ranks 11th in coverage grade and second in pass rush grade for his position.
The Browns have relied on the rushing attack in 2023. They rank third in rushing attempts and fifth in total rushing yards. The team hasn’t had much success passing the ball, but not many teams have against Baltimore. The Ravens are much more susceptible against the run, so Cleveland will almost certainly lean on RBs Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt.
In the end, I see the Ravens winning by multiple scores. Cleveland has a great defense, but I think that Baltimore is a buzz saw. Jackson and Andrews will break through and lead the way to another win.
Score Prediction: Ravens 24 Browns 13
Game of the Week
49ers at Jaguars
Sunday | 1:00 ET
After started off the season with five straight wins, the 49ers will head into Jacksonville as losers of three straight. The Jaguars, on the other hand, have won five in a row. They possess a balanced offensive attack and have their defense playing at a good level. Jacksonville will look to continue this dominant stretch on Sunday, while San Fransisco will desperately try to right the ship.
The 49ers offense was unstoppable at the beginning of the year, but injuries have slowed it down. Future Hall of Fame offensive tackle is still out, but WR Deebo Samuel and QB Brock Purdy are good to go. They’ve also had the bye week to sort things out. The Kyle Shanahan rushing attack will always be strong. The Niners rank 7th in yards per carry. RB Christian McCaffrey is as good as they come. In addition, the team ranks first in net yards per pass attempt. The offense revolves around getting the ball out of Purdy’s hands quickly and into playmakers’ for yards after the catch (YAC).
The Jaguars defense has given up the 7th most YAC in 2023. Still, four of Jacksonville’s five starting secondary players grade out very well on PFF, so I wonder if they will be able to dirsupt the quick pass game. Linebackers Foysade Oluokon and Devin Lloyd both grade out highly in coverage, so don’t expect a big George Kittle game. The only apparent mismatch is Jaguars edge Jonathan Allen on backup left tackle Jaylon Moore. He’ll probably cause some disruption, but the 49ers quick offense will mitigate it.
Flipping sides, the Jaguars also have a plethora of offensive weapons. QB Trevor Lawrence has RB Travis Etienne and WRs Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, and now Zay Jones to dish it out to. None of their offensive numbers are gaudy, but they get the job done. The Jaguars are 13th in points scored, 15th in yards per pass attempt, and 24th in yards per carry. The stats may be a bit skewed due to bye weeks, but the offense still hasn’t been as good as it can be. Meanwhile, the 49ers defense has allowed the 7th least yards in the NFL this year. They are particularly stout against the run. The pass rush is fantastic. They rank second in PFF pass rush grade and sixth in QB hits.
Besides last week against a hungry Joe Burrow, San Fransisco’s defense is still working. I don’t see the Jaguars going too crazy on offense. I simply can’t see the 49ers losing four in a row. Shanahan has had two weeks to get the team ready for this game, and all the playmakers are healthy again.