Sunday | 1:00 ET
It feels like we get a great AFC North matchup every week now, and Week 11 is no exception. In fact, we get two greats ones this week! Both the Steelers and Browns come into this one at 6-3. They are similar teams in that they both heavily lean on their defense. With starting Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson now out for the year, Cleveland could struggle mightily on offense to finish out 2023. As for Pittsburgh, offensive coordinator Matt Canada’s offense has drastically underperformed. QB Kenny Pickett has only thrown six touchdowns compared to four interceptions, and the offense ranks 30th in the NFL in total yards. Still, both team’s defenses have been good enough to put themselves in the playoff picture, so this game does have major post-season implications.
With backup QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center, the Browns will have a tough time against a ferocious Steelers defense. Pittsburgh’s unit passes the eye test with flying colors. Edge rushers TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith are both fantastic. Watt ranks third in the NFL with 10.5 sacks. The Steelers have only given up more than 22 points twice, out of nine games this season. The defense is tied for first in the league in takeaways with 18. It is the reason that the Steelers are 6-3.
However, the yardage stats are mind-blowing. Somehow, Pittsburgh has managed to give up the eighth most total yards in the NFL so far, as well as the sixth highest yards per play allowed. The offense has the third lowest average drive time, so the Steelers defense has had to play more than almost any other defense in the NFL. Still, these numbers are surprising. Either way, the unit is certainly dangerous enough to give DTR trouble. The Browns have been extremely run-heavy in 2023, and this will certainly not change with Watson out. Cleveland is third in the NFL in rushing yards. RBs Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt will both see a lot of work on Sunday. This works to Cleveland’s advantage in multiple ways. Running the ball will limit Pittsburgh’s opportunities to create sacks and interceptions, the two factors it runs on. For this reason, I don’t expect the Steelers defense to completely dominate the Browns.
On the other side of the ball, the situation is similar. The Steelers offense is awful, ranking 30th in total yards. The passing game is the main issue. The team comes in with the sixth lowest net yards per pass attempt. Kenny Pickett and co. will be lined up across Myles Garrett and Cleveland’s terrifying defensive group. Garrett is first in sacks and fumbles forced in 2023. He is arguably the best defensive player in the NFL and is surrounded by several other top-level defenders. Linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is third in the NFL in tackles for loss, and the secondary is loaded with talent. Safety Grant Delpit (eighth in PFF coverage grade among safeties) and CBs Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome II headline a group that has allowed the least passing yards in the NFL this season. I don’t see a way that the Steelers offense gets anything going on Sunday.
In all, I expect both offenses to struggle greatly. In Pittsburgh’s favor, it has won all year with little to no production from its offense. Still, I lean towards Cleveland in this matchup. I think that its offense will be able to scrape up at least one touchdown and couple field goals; throw in a late pick-six and things will be looking good. The defense will dominate Kenny Pickett. The Steelers lose a close game in the Dawg Pound.