Monday | 8:15 ET
Coming off of a nearly unbelievable loss, the Bears will head to the Twin Cities to face off against the Vikings on Monday Night Football this week. Chicago will come in at 3-8 after an excruciating fourth quarter collapse to the Detroit Lions. All that matters now is Justin Fields; the remaining portion of the season will determine whether or not the Bears will move on from him this offseason. On the other hand, the Vikings are still in playoff contention. This is the easiest game left on Minnesota’s schedule, and therefore a must-win for the Joshua Dobbs-led squad.
Contrary to general sentiment, the Bears offense has been pretty good this year. It is able to find great success running the ball. The Bears are ninth in yards per carry and third in rushing yards. Quarterback Justin Fields’ ability to run makes it difficult for opposing defenses to commit. In terms of the passing game, the Bears rank 22nd in net yards per pass attempt and 16th in passing touchdowns. If Fields hadn’t missed a large chunk of games, I’d expect these numbers to be better. In his first game back from injury last week, Fields turned in arguably the most encouraging performance of his NFL career. Perhaps a few weeks on the bench put things into perspective for him, as he looked calm and was making great decisions. He was dynamic on the ground (100+ rushing yards) and made quick, decisive throws (which is usually his weakness). He even made a perfect throw to wide receiver Tyler Scott on a late third down that would have ended the game had the rookie WR not inexplicably slowed down. Fields will look to build off of Week 11.
Meanwhile, the Vikings defense is good against the run, but susceptible through the air. It has allowed the 12th-least rushing yards this season, and gives up the fourth-least yards per carry. The Bears are very efficient on the ground, and their offense relies upon the rushing attack. If the Vikings run defense can perform at the same clip it has been all season long, the Bears could struggle to move the ball. The Vikings secondary ranks ninth in PFF coverage grade, but has still given up the seventh-most passing yards this year. Teams have given up trying to run against them, and realized that yards can eventually be found through the air. The issue for the Bears is that their passing game revolves around their running game. If the threat of the run isn’t there, Justin Fields hasn’t shown the ability to excel in obvious passing situations. It is essential for the Bears to establish the run early.
Also, the Vikings pass rush shouldn’t be ignored. The team somehow ranks 31st in PFF pass rush grade while being 13th in sacks. Edge rusher Danielle Hunter had two sacks in the first meeting between the Bears and Vikings this year. However, Chicago’s offensive line has been playing lights-out over the last few weeks so I don’t expect the pass rush to be an issue.
Switching sides, the Joshua Dobbs story is incredible. After Kirk Cousins’ season ending injury, Dobbs was tasked with coming in at quarterback with nearly zero notice. He has led Minnesota to a 2-1 record and kept them in the playoff picture. In all three of his games, tight end TJ Hockenson has been the team’s leading receiver. Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds will be tasked with slowing him down. Edmunds is not fully healthy and ranks 65th in PFF coverage grade out of 78 qualified linebackers, so Hockenson will probably continue his impressive run. However, the possible return of superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson could complicate things. Jefferson is listed as questionable and would be a massive boost the the Vikings offense. The Bears have allowed the fourth-most passing yards and the second-most passing touchdowns this season. If Jefferson plays, he will have a big game.
While the Vikings offense is solid in the passing game, it can not run the ball. Minnesota is 23rd in both yards per carry and total rushing yards. Meanwhile, Chicago’s defense allows the least yards per carry in the NFL. The Vikings will have to get everything through the air.
As for Chicago’s pass rush, it won’t be a factor. Montez Sweat has improved the rush, but it still it not overwhelming. Opposite of Sweat is edge Yannick Ngakoue, who ranks 99th in PFF pass rush grade out of 100 qualified edge rushers. Both Minnesota offensive tackles (Christian Darrisaw and Bryan O’Neill) are great players, so I expect Dobbs to have a lot of time in the pocket.
Ultimately, I think this game could go either way. The Vikings won’t get anything on the ground, but will still be able to score a couple of touchdowns through the air. If Jefferson plays, the passing attck will be overwhelming. On the other side, I can see the Bears offense churning out some good production if its running attacks gets going early. With such an important player in question in this matchup, it warrants two score predictions.