Sunday | 1:00 ET
The Bears will host the Lions on Sunday in a rematch of a wild Week 11 matchup. The last time these two teams met, the Bears dominated the game, doubling Detroit’s time of possesion and winning the turnover battle 4-1. The Lions erased a 12 point deficit with only four minutes remaining and were able to avoid the upset. Since then, Detroit lost on Thanksgiving to the Packers and nearly blew a 21 point lead to the Saints. They are still trying to right the ship from Week 11, while the Bears come in off of a win at Minnesota and their bye week. The Lions will surely take the Bears more seriously this time around, but Chicago will be hungry for a while considering the way the first game played out.
The Lions offense is fantastic. It is able to gain considerable yardage through both the run and pass games. It is fourth in yards per play and net yards per pass attempt, and fifth in yards per carry. It has accumulated the fourth most passing yards, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns (19) in the NFL (odd, I know). Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is the focal point of the offense, but the running back duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery is arguably the strongest in the league, and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta is a viable receiving option.
The Bears defense is very good against the run, but susceptible against the pass. It gives up the fourth-least yards per carry, yet the ninth-most net yards per pass attempt. For this reason, Chicago is eighth in pass attempts against compared to 29th in rush attempts against. Teams don’t even try to run the ball against the Bears.
On paper, this wouldn’t faze the Lions. They are just as, if not more, efficient through the air as they are on the ground. However, QB Jared Goff threw three interceptions the last time these teams met. Every time he released the ball, it felt like it was going to be caught by a Bears defender. The Bears secondary has gotten a lot better since getting fully healthy, and racked up another four interceptions against the Vikings in Week 12. The Lions may struggle again.
Switching sides, the Bears offense, similar to its defense, is strong in the running game, but not as much in the passing game. Chicago is 24th in net yards per pass attempt, but seventh in yards per carry. However, I think that both numbers would be higher had QB Justin Fields not missed time.
In his first game back from injury against the Lions, Fields had arguably the most encouraging game of his career. Fields was small and decisive with his passes and dynamic on the ground (104 rushing yards). OC Luke Getsy called a plethora of rushing plays for him against a Lions defense that struggles against running QB and got him out on the run, and it payed dividends (some would argue that that type of gameplan should always be employed with Justin Fields at quarterback, but I digress). I’d expect a similar strategy this time around. It utilizes Fields’ strengths, and also helps negate Detroit’s pass rush.
The Lions have not racked up the sacks, but do rank seventh in pressure percentage. DT Alim McNeil’s injury, however, is a major blow to the unit. Fields should have plenty of time behind an offensive line that has really found its footing.
The Lions defense has struggled mightily lately. It gives up the sixth-least yards per carry, which is not good news for Chicago. Luckily, it can get its rushing yards through the quarterback. The Lions have given up the sixth most passing TDs in the NFL, so expect it to be TE Cole Kmet or WR DJ Moore cashing in the Chicago touchdowns.
Ultimately, I think this will be another close game. Because of their last meeting, both teams will be jacked up for this game. The Bears know that they should’ve won last time, and the Lions know that they were outplayed. In the end, I think that Justin Fields will find more success on the ground and will be able to throw a couple of touchdowns against this Detroit secondary. As long as the Bears can avoid a large, early deficit, I think they come out on top.