Saturday | 8:15 ET
In a standalone Saturday Night matchup, the nation will be treated to a high-octane battle between the Detroit Lions and the Dallas Cowboys. The Lions come in at 11-4 after clinching the NFC North division title last week in Minneapolis. Detroit is tied for first place in the NFC and has a real shot at the number one seed. Dallas comes in at 10-5 and as losers of two straight. Both were tough-to-swallow road losses (for different reasons), so the Cowboys will be glad to head back to Jerry’s World to host another top-level team.
This game will feature two great offenses. The Cowboys are second in total points this year. The offense is also last in turnovers, which has certainly improved its efficiency. QB Dak Prescott and the passing game is Dallas’ strength on offense. The Cowboys are sixth in net yards per pass attempt and tied for first in passing touchdowns. WR CeeDee Lamb is the focal point; he leads the NFL in receptions (109) and is second in receiving yards (1424). He will primarily be lined up against Lions rookie CB Brian Branch in the slot. Branch is having a very nice rookie season, and ranks 21st in PFF grade out of 123 qualified cornerbacks. It will be fun to see what he can do in a major challenge against Lamb. As a whole, the Lions defense does not excel against the pass, which has led to the Lions giving up the ninth-most points this season. It gives up the eighth-most net yards per pass attempt and has allowed the eighth-most passing touchdowns. Detroit has the third-highest DADOT (average depth of target against), which means that teams prefer to throw deep passes when facing them. Expect this to ring true on Saturday, especially considering the strength of Detroit’s run defense.
Dallas has a perfectly average rushing attack, ranking 16th in both yards per carry and rushing touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Lions are very strong in this department. The Detroit defense allows the sixth-least yards per carry and fourth-least rushing yards per game. Oddly enough, it has also allowed the ninth-most rushing touchdowns. So, RB Tony Pollard could definitely stumble into the endzone, but he won’t be the reason the team made it that far down the field.
Another interesting aspect of this battle is penalties. The Lions defense has committed the fourth-least penalties this season, while the Cowboys offense has committed the second-most. Detroit should have a real advantage in that department; we’ll see how much that affects things.
Flipping sides, the Lions are very well-rounded on offense. Detroit is fifth in total points, fourth in net yards per pass attempt, and fifth in yards per carry. The unit has somehow managed to rank fifth in passing touchdowns and fourth in rushing touchdowns. RBs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are dynamic in the backfield, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the best receivers in the NFL, and rookie TE Sam LaPorta is superseding anyone’s wildest expectations. This week, I expect Montgomery and Gibbs to be the focal points against a Dallas defense that is very good against the pass. The Cowboys give up the tenth-least net yards per pass attempt, and have allowed the fifth-least passing yards. Even though the team is 10-5 (usually with the lead), it has faced the second-least passing attempts. Even when teams are trailing Dallas, they refuse to pass the ball.
One reason for this is the monsters that the Cowboys unleash in the pass rush. Edge rusher Micah Parsons ranks first out of 114 qualified edges in PFF grade, and edge rusher Dexter Lawrence ranks eighth. Dallas ranks second in PFF pass rush grade as a unit. Now, despite all of the playmakers, Detroit’s offensive line is its strongest asset. Center Frank Ragnow and tackle Penei Sewell both rank first in their respective positions in PFF grade. Right guard Graham Glasgow isn’t far behind at fifth among guards in the NFL. Because of these players, the Lions allow a low sack percentage. While most teams find it beneficial to stick to the run game to avoid being torn apart, the Lions are one of the only teams that could have a chance at limiting this pass rush. It will be interesting to see how this trench battle unfolds.
In terms of the running game, that big Detroit offensive line really helps. The Lions are third in rushing yards and fifth in yards per carry. Meanwhile, the Dallas defense is 15th in yards per carry allowed and 16th in rushing yards allowed. Detroit should be able to exploit this, although it should be noted that the Dolphins (the most efficient rushing attack in the NFL) had real trouble getting yards on the ground last week against the Cowboys.
In all, this should be a very evenly-matched, entertaining matchup. Dallas shouldn’t find much efficiency on the ground, but will shred the Detroit secondary. The Lions face a tough challenge in the Dallas secondary, but are just as happy getting yards on the ground. I expect a very tight game, but I have Detroit coming out on top. Tua put up 293 passing yards last week against the Cowboys, and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has a phenomenal matchup against Jourdan Lewis (123rd out of 124 qualified CBs in coverage grade) in the slot. If the secondary shuts things down, Jayhmr Gibbs is breaking out and will be able to get good yardage. The Lions are just too balanced.