Sunday | 1:00 ET
The Atlanta Falcons will head to Chicago to face the Bears this week. After another benching of QB Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke halted a two game Falcons losing streak last week with a dominating win over the Colts. Atlanta is still only one game back in the NFC South, so this Week 17 matchup still has importance. The Bears are also still technically in the playoff hunt, though they need a lot of things to fall their way. Chicago is coming off of an ugly win against the Cardinals, but has been playing solid football for the past several games.
The Falcons have a plethora of weapons on offense. Rookie RB Bijan Robinson is a great talent, and TE Kyle Pitts and WR Drake London are both freaks of nature. Sadly, Falcons head coach Arthur Smith has caught criticism this season for not utilizing his weapons correctly. Despite their great talents, Robinson, Pitts, and London each seem to disappear for weeks at a time. Switching quarterbacks could aid this issue, but London and Pitts still only combined for six catches last week.
Atlanta’s offense is middle of the pack in both passing and rushing efficiency. However, it typically chooses to heavily lean on the rushing attack (just like the Bears). The Falcons are second in rushing attempts and 26th in passing attempts. This heavy usage is not based on efficiency, but rather the distrust in QBs Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke. Despite ranking second in rushing attempts, the Falcons are eighth in rushing yards. Atlanta might run into trouble this week, as Chicago is one of the best teams at containing the run. They’ve allowed the least rushing yards in the NFL this year, third-least rushing touchdowns, and third-lowest yards per carry. This defense has faced the second-least rushing attempts. It’s not like the Bears are always playing with the lead; teams just refuse to run against them because they understand how difficult it is. Big nose tackle Andrew Billings is a force in the A gap, and LB TJ Edwards is having a great year in all facets, including run-stopping. It will be fascinating to see how heavily the Falcons lean on the running game considering the tentativeness of previous Bears opponents. I expect Atlanta to stick to their ways and hammer the run, but not have much to show for it when time runs out.
In terms of passing, the Falcons are 17th in net yards per pass attempt. Turnovers have been a major issue with Ridder at QB, but Taylor Heinicke has a 4-1 touchdown-interception ratio this year. The Bears defense is second in interceptions, led by star CB Jaylon Johnson with 4 (first in PFF grade out of 123 qualified cornerbacks). This secondary has allowed the third-most passing touchdowns this year, so the Falcons have a chance to exploit it. However, the group has been playing well of late and I don’t see Atlanta doing much through the air.
Switching sides, the Falcons defense is a lot better than I thought it was. Atlanta has given up the sixth-least points this season ninth-least yards per carry, and ninth-least net yards per pass attempt. The group is particularly stingy against the run, in which it has allowed only six touchdowns all season (second-lowest). DT David Onyemata is having a great year up the middle and ranks fifth in PFF run defense grade among 132 qualified defensive tackles. Similar to the Falcons, the Bears heavily lean on the run game on offense, ranking third in rushing attempts. However, the efficiency is also there for Chicago. They rank sixth in yards per carry and second in rushing yards. It will be interesting to see what the Bears’ four-headed monster of a rushing attack (Khalil Herbert, D’Onta Foreman, Roschon Johnson, Justin Fields) can do against a good run defense in Atlanta.
Through the air, the Bears rank 26th in net yards per pass attempt. The passing attack is not great, but is supplemented by the strong run game. Still, WR DJ Moore is a star (11th in receiving yards) who the Falcons will need to pay much attention to. Atlanta has allowed the eighth-least passing yards this season, and is led by S Jessie Bates III. Bates III ranks second in PFF coverage grade and third in PFF run defense grade among 95 qualified safeties. Don’t expect Justin Fields to blow the top off of the defense.
One thing that I have noticed in my research is the lack of mobile quarterbacks that the Falcons have faced in 2023. The only one that they have faced all season is Kyler Murray in Week 10. This was Murray’s first week back from his ACL tear at the end of the 2022 season. Kyler managed 33 rushing yards on 6 carries and added a rushing touchdown in a Falcons loss. It’s tough to predict how well Atlanta will be able to limit Fields, but he did run for 85 yards and a touchdown in last year’s Bears-Falcons matchup. Fields ran for 97 yards and a touchdown last week, averaging 10.8 yards per carry. If the Falcons can’t slow him down, they’ll be in for a long day.
The Bears win this one. The Falcons rely too heavily on the run, and will be stifled by Chicago’s defensive line. If Heinicke gets starts slinging it through the air, the Bears have shown the ability to put up crooked numbers in the takeaway department. Though the Bears face an oddly similar scenario on offense (heavy running team facing a good run defense), I think that Fields will be able to get yards by scrambling if the traditional rushing yards aren’t there. I don’t think the Bears will accumulate many passing yards against Jessie Bates, AJ Terrell, and the Falcons secondary, but I expect them to rack up the rushing yards and win this game on the ground.