Saturday | 4:30 ET
Before the season, this would’ve looked like a typo. Sure, the Browns had some positivity surrounding the team, but with QB DeShaun Watson only suiting up for five games, no one would’ve blamed Cleveland for collapsing. But alas, their elite defense and the emergence of 38-year-old Joe Flacco has pitted the Browns in the first round of the playoffs against the Houston Texans. After finishing with the second-worst record in the NFL last season, rookie QB sensation CJ Stroud has led Houston to host a playoff game at home in his first NFL season. He led the Texans to a huge win last week, on the road in Indianapolis in what was an ipso facto playoff game. The way that both the Browns and Texans have gotten themselves into this position is extremely impressive, and it’s a shame that one of them will be eliminated.
The marquee matchup on Saturday is the CJ Stroud and the Texans offense against Myles Garrett and the Browns defense. Cleveland is very, very good in all aspects of defensive play. They’ve allowed the second-least net yards per pass attempt, the second-least yards per carry this season (which combines for the lowest yards per play allowed). Cleveland is also tied for third in takeaways, 11th in sacks, and first in PFF pash rush grade. It is filled with elite defenders including DE Myles Garrett (14 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 1st in PFF grade among edge rushers), LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koamoah (4th in tackles for loss), CB Greg Newsome (T-8th in passes defended), and CB Martin Emerson Jr. (T-8th in passes defended, T-7th in interceptions).
While the Texans will cleary face a tough challenge, they are a tough challenge themselves. CJ Stroud is first in passing yards per game. On top of that, he also has the lowest pass interception percentage in the NFL (1%). He and WR Nico Collins have a great rapport, and TE Dalton Schultz provides another good target. However, though great in all aspects, the Browns defense thrives against the pass. It’s given up the least passing yards in the NFL. This is very concerning for the Texans, a team that is significantly more successful passing the ball than running it. In addition to ranking 28th in yards per carry compared to ninth in net yards per pass attempt, Houston has only ten rushing touchdowns on the year compared to 27 through the air.
If Stroud gets shut down by Cleveland’s suffocating secondary, it’s a wrap. Texans RB Devin Singletary is averaging only 62.3 rushing yards over his last three games, including a 44 yard performance against the Browns. Singletary does seem to randomly blow up over few weeks, however. If this is one of those weeks, the Texans will have a chance to put up some points. However, I don’t see Houston doing much on offense if they can’t do anything on the ground.
On the other side of the ball, we find the miraculous story of Joe Flacco. In five games as Cleveland’s fourth-string QB signing off of the street, the former Super Bowl champion has averaged 323 passing yards per game and led the Browns to a 4-1 record. He’s thrown 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He’s thrown a pick in every game he’s played in, but that’s what you’re going to get with 42+ pass attempts an all but one of his starts. The Texans secondary is not good. It does have good players in Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley Jr., but it allows the ninth-most net yards per pass attempt and has surrendered the sixth-most passing yards. Oddly enough, Houston has also allowed the least passing touchdowns this season (17, even less than the Browns at 20). Still, I think that Joe Flacco, Amari Cooper, and David Njoku could tear apart the Texans defense. Though the Browns are now a pass-heavy offense, they don’t have trouble punching it in with their running backs (they had two rushing touchdowns against Houston in Week 16).
In all, I see Joe Flacco leading the Browns into the Divisional Round. Neither team will be able to run the ball, so this will come down to the quarterbacks. Although both quarterbacks are playing very well, the Browns secondary is simply so much better than the Texans’. I wouldn’t be too surprised if Stroud pulled some magic on Saturday (especially considering that Cleveland’s defense has played a lot worse on the road this season), but I think that Joe Flacco and the Browns will prove too difficult to keep up with.