Saturday | 4:30 ET
Texans rookie QB sensation CJ Stroud will lead the Texans into Baltimore to take on likely-MVP Lamar Jackson and the daunting Ravens to kick off this round of the playoffs. Baltimore is fresh off of its bye week, and many of its key starters haven’t played in three weeks. Houston hosted the Browns last week, and won convincingly, 45-14. The two teams will collide on Saturday and hopefully give us an entertaining game.
When CJ Stroud is playing, this Texans offense is fantastic. Stroud had one of the best season that a rookie quarterback has ever had this season. He managed to drag his team (who picked 2nd in last year’s draft) to the playoffs, and put up 45 points in his first playoff game, leading his team to victory with 3 touchdowns, 274 passing yards, and no turnovers. WR Nico Collins had a 90-yard first half, TE Brevin Jordan too a simple drag route to the house, and Stroud took zero sacks. He is so good at making the right decision quickly. RB Devin Singletary also rushed for 5.1 yards per carry and scored a touchdown. Everything was clicking last week.
If any defense can rain on Houston’s parade, it’s Baltimore’s. The Ravens have stars everywhere you look on the defense. S Marcus Williams, S Kyle Hamilton, LB Roquan Smith, and DE Jadeveon Clowney are just a few. All but three starters rank at least within the top third of their respective positions on PFF, several of them much better. One of the exceptions is CB Marlon Humphrey, a three-time Pro-Bowler. The Ravens were the best team against the pass this year, giving up the least net yards per pass attempt. Baltimore has also allowed the second-least passing touchdowns in 2023. The defense also finished third in interceptions this year. Houston is the fifth-least efficient team on the ground, so a matchup against the best secondary in the NFL is not ideal. The thing is, they just destroyed the second-best secondary in the NFL last week, Cleveland. Can they do it two weeks in a row, this time on the road?
Switching sides, the Ravens offense is unbelievable. It finished the season fourth in points, fifth net yards per pass attempt, first in interceptions (lowest amount), third in yards per carry, and second in rushing touchdowns. Its quarterback is heavy-MVP favorite Lamar Jackson, who finished the season with over 800 rushing yards ranking first in yards per carry in the NFL (5.5). Now, Houston is very good against the run. The Texans gave up the second-least yards per carry this season (3.5), and held the Browns to only 2.8 y/c last week. Even if the Ravens are stifled in the run game, they should be able to move the ball through the air with relative ease. The Texans are a bottom-third team against the pass this year. Oddly enough though, they don’t allow many passing touchdowns (although they do allow a high amount of rushing touchdowns, despite good efficiency numbers). I expect that the Ravens will be able to move the ball through the air and punch it in through the running game.
This should be a fun game to watch, with studs on all four units. Ultimately, I can’t pick against the Ravens at home. CJ Stroud is really good, but he’ll have to score a lot of points against a very good defense to keep up with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.