Sunday | 6:30 ET
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will be faced with a rare road playoff game this week in Buffalo. Kansas City won a freezing cold game against the Dolphins last week to advance, while Josh Allen led the Bills to a dominating win over the Steelers. Allen was incredible, using both his arm and legs to rack up 277 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns. Over in Kansas City, the Chiefs defense held the Dolphins in check, and WR Rashee Rice along with RB Isaiah Pacheco had impressive offensive performances.
The Bills offense versus the Chiefs defense is the most interesting matchup to me. The Bills finished eighth in yards per carry and fourth in net yards per pass attempt in 2023. QB Josh Allen was one of the best players in the league over the course of the entire season, and he is playing at a very high level right now. He’ll face off against a Chiefs defense that allowed the second-least total points this regular season. It gave up the third-least net yards per pass attempt and fifth-least passing touchdowns. CBs La’Jarious Sneed and Trent McDuffie make it very hard to pass against the Chiefs. This makes Sunday’s matchup very interesting because both units’ strengths are in the passing game. Kansas City is not as good against the run, allowing the eighth-most yards per carry this year (4.5). The Bills were efficient on the ground last week, averaging 5.3 yards per carry (including 9.3 yards per carry for Josh Allen). It seems that even if Buffalo’s passing game gets shut down, the Bills will have a chance to get yardage via the rushing attack.
It will also be interesting to see which offensive or defensive line prevails. The Chiefs are second in both sacks (57) and pressure percentage this year, while Josh Allen and the Bills have taken the least sacks (only 24). Whoever loses their strength in the trenches will be at a massive disadvantage, losing a major strength that they are used to having.
Switching sides, we have Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense against the Bills’ impressive defense. Buffalo hasn’t allowed more than 22 points in a game since Week 12, including a 20-17 victory over Kansas City. It’s given up the sixth-least net yards per pass attempt this year, second-least passing touchdowns and accounted for the fourth-most sacks. Second-year CB Christian Benford is having a breakout season and LB Tyrel Dodson has been the third-best linebacker in football this year according to PFF. On the other hand, the Chiefs have not been special on offense this year. Kansas City finished 2023 13th in net yards per pass attempt and 12th in yards per carry. Last week, however, they managed 26 points in horrible conditions. They were forced to settle for four field goals.
Through the air, I expect the Chiefs to have trouble. However, they may be able break through on the ground. The running game has been hit and miss this year, but RB Isaiah Pacheco has grabbed 89+ rushing yards in three of his last five games, adding in five touchdowns as well. Buffalo allowed the fifth-most yards per carry this season (4.6) and surrendered 106 yards on 23 carries (exactly 4.6 yards per carry) to a below-average Steelers rushing attack last week. Importantly, the Bills still won handily despite Pittsburgh’s rushing efficiency.
This game is tough to flesh out. Both teams could struggle through the air, forcing them to the resort to the run. However, in Week 14’s meeting between these two teams, both continued airing it out, despite decent successes on the ground. Both QBs went over 42 pass attempts. If that happens again, we’ll have another low scoring game on our hands. Either way, I do expect a defensive battle. Take the under and give me Bills at home.