Sunday | 3:00 ET
The first-seeded Baltimore Ravens will host- you guessed it- Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday for a chance at a Super Bowl appearance. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens destoyed the young Texans last week, while the Chiefs put together arguably their best performance of the season in a difficult victory out in Buffalo. Even though this was the ‘worst’ Chiefs season in a while, they still find themselves playing for a chance at the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City are simply inevitable. However, Baltimore has been a wrecking ball this season. In 2023, they finished first in points allowed and fourth in points scored. QB Lamar Jackson is almost certainly the MVP. Will he be able to lead the Ravens to Las Vegas?
Baltimore’s offense versus Kansas City’s defense is going to be a treat to watch. Kansas City gave up the second-least points this season (only behind Baltimore). It is particularly strong against the pass, allowing the third-least net yards per pass attempt. CBs Trent McDuffie and L’Jarious Sneed form a lethal combo, and CB Joshua Williams has also been lock-down this season. In five of its last six games, the Chiefs have held its opponent to under 200 passing yards (the only exception was Week 18, will starters resting), including matchups against the Bills and Dolphins. The Ravens are really good at passing the ball (fifth in net yards per pass attempt), but they will probably have to focus to the run game (KC allowed eighth-most yards per carry). Luckily for Ravens fans, this is something that Baltimore is extremely comfortable with. The Ravens ranked third in yards per carry, second in rushing touchdowns, first in rushing yards, and first in rushing attempts this regular season (while also finishing 30th in passing attempts). Lamar Jackson and RB Gus Edwards both logged over 800 rushing yards, and Lamar ranked first in yards per carry in the NFL in 2023. Jackson racked up another 100 yards on the ground in last week’s playoff matchup, while the Chiefs allowed 72 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns to QB Josh Allen in their matchup. Lamar Jackson is going to have to take over this game with his legs, and I think he will.
Switching sides, the Ravens have a very similar defense to the Chiefs. It also majors against the pass, allowed the very least net yards per pass attempt in 2023. Unlike the the Chiefs, this unit also gets interceptions (T-3rd). The Chiefs passing attack was good this year, finished fifth in net yards per attempt and sixth in passing yards. However, I worry about its chances this week against a phenomenal Ravens secondary, headlined by safeties Marcus Williams, Kyle Hamilton, and Geno Stone. The Chiefs should also find more efficiency on the ground, with the Ravens allowing the seventh-most yards per carry in 2023. Kansas City, however, doesn’t have quite the same running game to fall back onto. The Chiefs were middle-of-the-pack in most rushing stats, except for rushing touchdowns, where they finished sixth-worst (only nine). Baltimore allowed the very least rushing touchdowns this season (only six), so do not expect RB Isaiah Pacheco to find pay dirt.
One way that the Chiefs can keep themselves in this game is by limiting the Ravens pass rush. Baltimore finished first in sacks, but Kansas City took the second-least sacks. This is a major strength for both teams, so it’s notable if one side gains a weakness here.
In all, this is going to be a close game. The Ravens are unbelievable, but the Chiefs are experienced. For this reason, they will be able to keep it close until the end. Ultimately though, I think that this is Baltimore’s year. Lamar will have another big game on the ground and lead the Ravens to another Super Bowl appearance.