Keys to the Game
Ravens
- Lean Into Run Game (and stick to it)
- Limit Mahomes Deep Ball
If the Ravens plan on spoiling Kansas City’s opening night festivities, they better be planning on leaning on the 6’3″, 250-pound beast of a running back that they signed in the offseason. Last season, Baltimore’s Super Bowl hopes were ended by the Chiefs in uncharacteristic fashion in the AFC Championship Game. After racking up the most rushing yards in the NFL over the course of the regular season, offensive coordinator Todd Monken and the Ravens only opted to rush the ball 16 times in the 17-10 loss.
If things are going to end differently on Thursday night, newly acquired running back Derrick Henry, who finished second in rushing yards last season, will need a heavy dose of usage. Despite its defensive prowess in 2023, the Chiefs defense did not grade out well against the run. None of Kansas City’s defensive lineman are particularly skilled at defending the run, while the secondary’s coverage stats are phenomenal. While it is important to note the Chiefs’ loss of star cornerback L’Jarious Sneed, and the several new faces on the Baltimore offensive line, I still believe that the Ravens need to focus on the run game in what could be an early-season, grind-it-out type game.
On defense, the Ravens will be tasked with slowing down the best quarterback on the planet. While stopping him entirely is impossible, Baltimore at least needs to limit the deep ball. The 2023 season was Kansas City’s worst offensive showing in several years. The team finished 15th in the NFL in total points. With a consistent deep threat, the offense wasn’t near as explosive as prior years. However, with the addition of speed-burner Xavier Worthy in the draft this year, the deep ball could reemerge as a major threat. It will be important for Baltimore to limit these home-run plays and force Mahomes to move down the field slowly, allowing more opportunities for mistakes.
Chiefs
- Ensure a Balanced Offensive Attack
- Get off to Early Lead
Even as the two-time defending Super Bowl Champion, Kansas City will have its hands full in the 2024 NFL season’s initial battle. Despite ultimately getting knocked out by Chiefs, the Ravens were the best regular-season team last year in many’s eyes. Littered with star players on each level such as S Kyle Hamilton, LB Roquan Smith, and DE Nnamdi Madubuike, the defensive group was the team’s strength. Baltimore only allowed 280 points last season, first in the NFL.
With such a talented defense to deal with, it will be important for Kansas City to lead a balanced offensive attack this week. Despite adding new weapons in the passing game, the Chiefs will not have much success if they abandon the run. If they start leaning towards a particular tendency, Baltimore will be able to adjust accordingly. With talented players within each defensive skill group, it is important to keep them guessing.
Kansas City’s other key to the game is to get off to an early lead. This, of course, is always a good strategy. But, it is especially important this week for the Chiefs. Grabbing the lead will keep the playbook open for Andy Reid and the Kansas City offense. If playcalling becomes one-dimensional against a defense as dominant and Baltimore’s, it becomes extremely difficult to come back. In addition, playing with the lead may encourage Ravens defenders to make uncharacteristic mistakes. Patrick Mahomes feasts on those types of opportunities.
What’s the Move?
DraftKings: +130 Ravens Moneyline
Not only do I have the Ravens covering the +3 spread, I see them winning outright. The Ravens have been stewing in their AFC Championship loss for the past 8 months. I think that their desire for revenge combined with their stellar defense and new offensive addition will prove to be enough in Week 1.