Keys to the Game
Vikings
- Keep Chicago One-Dimensional
Minnesota heads into this contest with the leg-up on paper. Its coaching staff vastly outshines Chicago’s, and has led it to trot out possibly the best defense in the NFL. The Vikings have allowed the 2nd-least points this season and are extremely difficult to run against. Since its defense leads the path to success, Minnesota’s singular key to this game is to keep Chicago one-dimensional on offense. Forcing rookie quarterback Caleb Williams into obvious passing situations would make matters much more difficult for him. The Bears offense looks significantly better when running back D’Andre Swift is being productive, so taking that away would be detrimental to their operation.
The Vikings are lined up well to achieve this objective. They rank 1st in PFF run defense, and have allowed the least rushing yards, 2nd-least yards per carry and 2nd-least rushing touchdowns in the NFL this year. Linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel ranks first in the league in tackles for loss. This is the best run-stopping unit in the league; Swift and Chicago will face a difficult challenge on Sunday.
Bears
- Handle Flores’ Blitzes
- Break Through in Run Game
The most important task for Chicago this week is to put together a solid plan to counteract Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ exotic defensive schemes. In addition to the creative ways he utilizes his secondary, Flores is an outlier in how often he sends an extra rusher. This season under Flores, the Vikings rank 1st in both blitz percentage (37%, median: 24%) and total blitzes. This strategy has shaped out extremely well for the Minnesota pass rush. It has posted the most pressures, most QB knockdowns, and 3rd-most sacks this season. Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Patrick Jones have each racked up 7+ sacks through 10 games.
Newly-appointed offensive coordinator Thomas Brown needs to have put together some sort of plan to limit the effects of the blitz-heavy pass rush whether it be utilizing the quick game, using 12 and 21 personnel (2 running backs or 2 tight ends) more often, or something else entirely. Early in the season, Williams and the Chicago offensive line struggled mightily against a blitz-heavy Texans defense. Hopefully they can learn and grow from those mistakes.
Minnesota has managed to win 8 of its first 10 contests this season, only falling to the Lions and Rams. Its NFL-leading run defense is a major factor into this 8-2 record. If Chicago is going to hand the Vikings their third loss on Sunday, it needs to follow in Detroit and LA’s footsteps. Despite its prowess against the run, Minnesota allowed big numbers to running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and Kyren Williams in its two losses. Gibbs grabbed 2 touchdowns on 116 rushing yards in week 7, while Williams racked up 97 rushing yards in week 8. If D’Andre Swift is able to break off a few big runs and put up a similar statline, Chicago would be be put in a significantly better position to win.