The 2023 NFL season is just around the corner. What better way to prepare for the new year than by getting in on the action? NFL season-long props are less up to chance, and therefore less stressful than single-game props as long as you are confident in your picks. To help out with that, here are five of the safest season-long NFL player props on the board this year.
These are all props that I have personally invested in.
Kirk Cousins
Over 28.5 Passing Touchdowns
When Quarterback was released on Netflix, Kirk’s calm, steady personality was presented to the world. His performance on the field could be described in a similar fashion. Throughout his career, Cousins has been the epitome of consistency. He’s hit 29+ passing touchdowns in 4 out of the last 5 seasons. The loss of wide receiver Adam Thielen will hardly be felt since the Vikings selected USC receiver Jordan Addison in the first round of this year’s draft. With Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, and Addison, Kirk’s production has no reason to fall off of its steady path.
Cam Akers
Over 750.5 Rushing Yards
Cam Akers is going to be a stud this season. In 2022, he finished with 786 rushing yards (35 over his number this year). All that has changed this year is positive for Akers. Darrell Henderson, who he was previously splitting reps with, is no longer on the roster. He is also an additional year removed from his surgery to repair a torn achilles. Akers is the clear lead back on an offense that is bound to improve simply based on the returns of Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp from injury. Head coach Sean McVay even told reporters that he is set to be “a huge part” of the Rams offense in 2023. Bet on him with confidence.
Justin Fields
Over 18.5 Passing Touchdowns
In 2022, Fields’ first season as the full-time starter, he threw 17 passing touchdowns. This was behind a poor offensive line in terms of pass blocking, and minimal weapons on offense. The Bears upgraded both this offseason, including the additions of WR DJ Moore, TE Robert Tonyan, and OT Darnell Wright. Most notably, the addition of DJ Moore presents Fields with his first bona fide number one receiver. Moore racked up 7 receiving touchdowns last year. In preseason week 1, Fields notched 2 passing touchdowns despite barely throwing the ball past the line of scrimmage. They will come much easier to him this season. All he needs to do is add two touchdowns; 19 is a smash.
Travis Kelce
Over 95.5 Receptions
In addition to co-hosting one of the most entertaining podcasts on the internet, Travis Kelce is the undisputed best tight end in the league. Although 95.5 is a steep number, it’s that high for a reason. He’s hit it in 4 of his last 5 seasons (103, 97, 105, 92, 110). After recording his career high in receptions last year in a Tyreek Hill-less Chiefs offense, there is no reason for anything to change this season. The offense will run through Travis Kelce, who will turn in another spectacular year.
Justin Herbert
Over 4625.5 passing yards
This number is set way too low. Herbert threw for 4,739 yards last year and 5,014 yards in 2021. He easily surpassed 4,625.5 yards last year despite playing through broken ribs for nearly the entire season. Wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both missed several games, and the Chargers drafted WR Quentin Johnston in the first round of the draft. New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore could elevate the Chargers offense even further, and Justin Herbert would be the beneficiary. Everything is looking up for Justin Herbert in 2023.