Sunday | 1:00 ET
Justin Fields and the Bears will head to Cleveland to take on the Browns this Sunday. Fields’ first NFL start came in the Dawg Pound, and it wasn’t pretty (sacked eight times). He’ll look to improve upon that performance and keep the Bears winning streak alive. The Bears still have an outside chance of making the playoffs, so this is a meaningful game.
Cleveland will come in at 8-5, in playoff position. However, there are six teams one game behind them, tied at 7-6. The Browns need to keep their foot on the pedal. With injuries stacking up, this could be difficult. The fourth-string quarterback, Joe Flacco, will be starting. Starting safety Grant Delpit was just placed on IR, stud DE Ogbannia Okoronkwo may be out for the season, and the Browns Wednesday injury report consists of RB Jerome Ford, RB Kareem Hunt, OL Ethan Pocic, CB Denzel Ward, and S Juan Thornhill (all DNPs except for Thornhill).
The Browns defense is the strength of the team. It’s one of the best units in the league, giving up the third lowest yards per play. It is particularly strong against the pass (third-lowest net yards allowed per pass attempt). The secondary is beat up, but it seems like star cornerback Denzel Ward may return for this game. That would be a major boost to a group that also consists of Greg Newsome II and Martin Emerson Jr. (fourth in interceptions). Myles Garrett plays a massive role on this defense. The Browns rank fifth in pressure percentage this season, although losing Okoronkwo will hurt this number. Still, Myles Garrett is probably the best defensive player in the NFL. He has 13 sacks this season (seventh in NFL) and has forced four fumbles (tied third in NFL).
Cleveland is also solid against the run (12th-lowest yards/carry given up). Linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is third in tackles for loss this season with 16. Still, the Bears offense will have to attack this aspect of the Browns defense. Chicago is ninth in yards per carry, and fourth in both rush attempts and rushing yards. QB Justin Fields is dynamic on the ground and has been the Bears’ leading rusher in three straight contests. Considering the amount of man coverage that Cleveland employs, I would expect another big rushing game from Fields.
When the Bears do pass, I would expect them to attack the deep part of the field. Cleveland’s corners are elite (especially if Ward is healthy), but safety Grant Delpit is out for the year and safety Juan Thornhill is not fully healthy. D’Anthony Bell, whose only played 45 defensive snaps this year, will likely be thrust into heavy action. DJ Moore has been one of the best wide receivers in the NFL with Justin Fields under center, so it will be interesting to see what he can do against the Browns secondary. This will also be a massive litmus test for QB Justin Fields. He’s been playing well lately; now it’s time to see what he looks like against a top-level defense.
Switching sides, the Browns offense has undergone a major change in the past two weeks. With Joe Flacco thrust into action, an offense that is first in rushing attempts despite ranking 16th in yards per carry has abandoned the run game. In two games with Flacco under center, Cleveland has made 89 pass attempts and only gained 169 rushing yards, despite playing with the lead for almost the entirety of Week 14. This is an offense that has heavily relied on the rushing game this season. However, I expect them to air it out against against the Bears, who have given up the second-least yards per carry, fourth least rushing yards, and have faced the fourth-least rushing attempts in the NFL.
The Bears coverage stats aren’t great, but the entire defense (secondary included) has played fantastically over the past several weeks. Turnovers, which used to be a rarity, have been plentiful. The Bears have 11 takeaways in the last three games. Meanwhile, the Browns are first in turnovers on offense, including three last week. CB Jaylon Johnson ranks first in PFF grade out of 119 qualified CBs. Edge rusher Montez Sweat is a force, and could have a monster game lined up against Browns RT James Hudson III (ranks 84th out of 84 qualified RTs in PFF grade).
In all, everything expect for the team records suggests a Bears upset. It is never easy to win in the Dawg Pound, and the Browns are 6-1 there in 2023. However, injuries are stacking up and the Bears will come in with a newfound confidence and swagger. Chicago’s defense is on a heater, and the Browns surrender the most turnovers in the league. They won’t be able to run it, and will be forced to pass into a secondary that is playing very well. I also think that Montez Sweat plays a big role.
The Bears could have a tough time scoring on offense, but I think that Justin Fields and the running backs will be able to do just enough work on the ground to get it done. The Bears win a close one.