Sunday | 8:20 ET
The Bears will face off against the Chargers on Sunday Night Football this week, in a surprisingly intriguing matchup. With quarterback Justin Fields still dealing with a dislocated right thumb, the Bears will trot out undrafted rookie QB Tyson Bagent. Last week, in his first NFL start, Bagent led the Bears to their first home win in over a year. If he can scrape together another win, this time in primetime, Justin Fields’ future in Chicago could be in serious danger. Meanwhile, the Chargers are sitting a half of a game ahead of the Bears at 2-4. They are coming off of an unsurprising loss to Kansas City. Once again, their star-studded roster is simply not getting it done. If LA finds a way to lose to the Bears, head coach Brandon Staley will be firmly on the hot seat (if he isn’t already).
On offense, Chicago has actually been generally good in 2023. The Bears rank third in PFF run grade, and have scored the 11th most points in the NFL. Justin Fields was on fire before he got injured, and Tyson Bagent stepped in last week and looked good. The offense looked much more crisp with him under center. The gameplan was heavily focused on quick passes. Bagent was extremely decisive with the football, which allowed the Bears to stay consistently ahead of the sticks and avoid taking sacks. Since Bagent is still inexperienced and last week’s gameplan led to a win, I expect a very similar against the Chargers. Getting the ball out quickly would help to limit Khalil Mack’s presence off of the edge (although the Chargers only rank 22nd in PFF pash rush grade). Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy wants his offense to be YAC (yards after the catch) based, and Bagent allows them to lean into this. LA has given up the fifth most YAC this year, so Getsy’s plan just may work again.
Also, Travis Kelce decimated the Charger defense last week from the tight end position (179 yards and one touchdown on 12 catches). Kelce is a future first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, and Bears TE Cole Kmet is nowhere near his level. However, look for Kmet to catch a few balls (he had zero catches last week) and maybe find the endzone.
On the other side of the ball, Chargers QB Justin Herbert has been struggling over the past couple of weeks. However, this is only due to the caliber of defenses he’s been facing off against (Cowboys and Chiefs). He should be able to get back on track against the Bears, who rank 25th in PFF coverage grade. This feels a little low, especially considering that Chicago’s secondary dealt with injuries to 4 out of its 5 starting defensive backs over the first seven weeks. Everyone is healthy now, and the unit did a great job last week, albeit against Brian Hoyer. Still, Justin Herbert should have a much easier time moving the ball through the air compared to the last couple of weeks.
CB Jaylon Johnson is the strong-point of the unit, ranking 1st out of 117 qualified cornerbacks in PFF coverage grade. Fortunately for Herbert, Johnson has only played 2.5% of his snaps in the slot this year, where his favorite target, Keenan Allen, mainly resides. Second year nickelback Kyler Gordon will be seeing the most of Allen, and will have to step up if the Bears want to avoid a big day for the veteran wide receiver.
The Bears have given up the fourth most passing yards in the NFL this year, compared to the eighth least rushing yards. Look for a big day out of Justin Herbert, and another quiet game from running back Austin Ekeler in terms of rushing.
Overall, I think that SNF will bring America a close game. Even though I see Tyson Bagent putting together another solid performance against a weak defense, this is too important of a game for the Chargers and their coaching staff. If Brandon Staley can’t find a way to scheme Justin Herbert to victory over an undrafted former D-II QB, he’ll be one foot out of the door.