Keys to the Game
Colts
- Hammer Caleb Williams With Blitzes
- Get Michael Pittman Jr. Involved
As the Colts look to right the ship this week against the Bears, pressuring rookie quarterback Caleb Williams with the blitz is the first step. Chicago’s new-look offense has been abysmal thus far, and the Texans demonstrated the best way to disrupt it last week on Sunday Night Football. Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans uncharacteristically hammered the Chicago offensive line with extra rushers, and the Bears had no answer. Williams was pressured an NFL-leading 20 times last week (42% of his dropbacks). The 5th rusher was consistently getting to Williams, sometimes untouched. Until further notice, opposing defenses’ #1 priority should be to challenge the Bears with a healthy dose of blitzes.
Indianapolis’ second key to the game is to get wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. involved. After an extremely encouraging 2023 campaign, the Colts WR1 has been nearly invisible through the first 2 weeks. He’s got a measly 52 yards and 7 catches to his name in 2024. If the Colts are going to meet their expectations this season, Pittman Jr. needs to step up and continue to be the reliable, consistent receiver that he was last year.
Bears
- Get the Run Game Going
- Grab Early Lead
Chicago’s offense has been abysmal this young season, and the inability to run the ball effectively is at the forefront. Heading into Week 3, the Bears sit at 28th in rushing yards with just 155. Last week, starting running back D’Andre Swift only managed to squeak out 18 yards on 14 carries. It is important for a rookie QB like Caleb Williams to have the support of at least an average rushing attack. This would set up manageable 2nd and 3rd downs and keep the playbook open.
Luckily for the Bears, the Colts have been historically bad at defending the run this season. They’ve allowed the most rushing yards through the first 2 weeks, by far (474 yards; 2nd place is 399). To make matters worse, Indy will be without star defensive lineman DeForest Buckner for an extended period of time after he sustained a high ankle sprain last week in Green Bay. Buckner was going to cause Chicago’s poor interior offensive line massive issues, both in the passing and running games.
It would also be helpful from the Bears’ perspective to grab the lead early on Sunday. With Anthony Richardson under center, the Colts have a dangerous dual-threat rushing attack. By going down by multiple scores early in the contest, Indy began to focus more on passing the ball downfield last week against the Packers. RB Jonathan Taylor ran very efficiently (103 yards on 12 carries), but the Packers were willing to give that up knowing that the only way the Colts could come back was through the air. Chicago would love to force them into the same situation. Taking away Taylor and Richardson’s legs would encourage AR to force the ball into the dangerous Bears secondary.
What’s the Move?
Bears +1.5 (ESPNBet)
I think this is the week that Shane Waldon’s offense finally breaks through. Swift should finally be able to find some holes in Indianapolis’s abysmal run defense, which will create some breathing room for Williams. Without Bucker, the Colts defensive line isn’t daunting from a pass rush perspective, so the pressure number shouldn’t be as high as it was last week. Still, Chicago’s defense is the real reason behind this pick. It is one of the best in the league, and could give Richardson problems.