Sunday | 1:00 ET
Bears quarterback Justin Fields will finally return under center this week in a tough road matchup in Detroit. It will be interesting to see the Chicago offense with him back at quarterback. He’ll face a difficult, but not daunting, challenge in the Lions defense. Ben Johnson’s offense is what drives Detroit. The Lions have one of the most well-run offenses in the NFL, and come into this matchup at 7-2 because of it. This is a must win game against the 3-7 Bears if the Lions want a chance at a first round bye in the playoffs.
The Lions offense has been fantastic in 2023. It ranks first in PFF overall offensive grade. Detroit can move the ball efficiently both on the ground and through the air. The offense ranks fifth in net yards per pass attempt and seventh in yards per carry. It has 14 passing touchdowns and 14 rushing touchdowns. This balance makes it difficult for defenses to slow the unit down. If you home in on the pass, running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs will eat you up. If you home in on the run game, QB Jared Goff will pick you apart with star wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. In addition, the Lions offensive line- particularly the right side- is arguably its strongest asset. The group does a great job of both protecting Goff and executing gap-scheme runs. They make it easy on Goff, Montgomery, and Gibbs.
The Bears defense is the best in the NFL against the run. It allows the least yards per carry (3.2) and has only given up four rushing touchdowns. However, Chicago also gives up the ninth-most net yards per pass attempt and has allowed the second-most passing touchdowns. The secondary was very beaten up at the beginning of the year, but is finally fully healthy. Still, the unit is gelling and Ben Johnson will definitely find ways to exploit it. One matchup that I’m particularly looking forward to watching is that between Amon-Ra St. Brown and nickel cornerback Kyler Gordon. Gordon is coming off of easily the best game of his young career and will be faced with a great test.
Though Chicago’s pass rush got home last week against the Panthers, I don’t anticipate the same this week. Detroit’s offensive line is too good. I think that it will allow Jared Goff more than enough time to throw the ball down the field. Though I don’t expect the running backs to get much on the ground, Goff will have a big stat-line including several passing touchdowns.
Flipping sides, the Bears offense should look drastically different compared to the last month’s worth of games. With Tyson Bagent out and Justin Fields in, the group immediately becomes more explosive. Detroit’s use of man coverage tends to allow for big games out of scrambling quarterbacks. Last year, Fields was able to rip off several long runs against the Lions. He’s yet to have a long one this year, so it’d be great to see one this week.
The Bears offense ranks eighth in yards per carry (just behind the Lions) and second in total rushing yards. It hasn’t found the same success through the air, coming in at 23rd in net yards per pass attempt. However, Fields was on a heater when he got injured. In the two games before his injury, he threw for a combined 617 yards, 8 touchdowns and only 1 interception. He’ll have to keep this up, as Detroit is very stout against the run. The Lions allow the sixth-least yards per carry. The Bears rely on their run game, so OC Luke Getsy will be put in an uncomfortable situation. In his first game back, Fields will need to have a big game through the air for Chicago to have a chance.
Luckily for Chicago, the Lions secondary is beatable. They are middle of the pack in net yards allowed per pass attempt, but have given up the seventh-most passing touchdowns. Star WR DJ Moore will see a lot of CBs Cam Sutton and Jerry Jacobs, neither of whom grade out very well in PFF grade this year.
Lastly, Detroit’s pass rush has been solid in 2023. This will be the first game of the season in which Chicago’s entire offensive line is healthy. In Week 10, the Bears allowed zero sacks. I don’t expect Aiden Hutchinson and the Lions pass rush to have too much of an impact.
In all, the Lions offense will prove too lethal. I think Chicago will shut down the run game, but Goff and Amon-Ra are going to have huge games. However, I don’t expect Chicago to go down without a fight. Matt Eberflus has yet to lose the locker room. The Bears are hungry, and the insertion of Fields back into the lineup will create a surge of energy and excitement. I expect a 100+ receiving yards out of DJ Moore and a good line for Justin Fields.