Sunday | 4:25 ET
This one’s a dousy. The Bears will head to Green Bay to conclude their 2023 season this week with Tony Romo and Jim Nantz on the call. Chicago is eliminated from playoff contention, but the situation for the Packers is different: win, and you’re in. After getting blown out by Green Bay all the way back in Week 1, there is nothing that the Bears would love better than to spoil the Packers’ playoff chances (in what would be eerily similar to the way that the 2022 season concluded with Detroit defeating Green Bay at home and knocking them out of the playoffs). There is also some drama between WR DJ Moore and CB Jaire Alexander after Alexander belittled Moore after shutting him down in Week 1. Even more, Justin Fields and his teammates are well aware that this could his last game in a Bears uniform. Chicago is going to leave it all on the field in Week 18. Both teams are hot right now, each having won five of its last seven games. Green Bay’s offense has led the way, while Chicago’s defense has turned into one of the best in the NFL during this stretch.
The marquee matchup is the Packers offense versus the Bears defense. Green Bay has scored 33 points in each of its last two games, while Chicago has only allowed more than 20 points in a game once since Week 10. Packers QB Jordan Love has begun to click with his young receiver group and he is throwing the ball very well. He’s led the Packers to rank 11th in total points this season and third in passing touchdowns. In addition to the touchdowns through the air, the Packers have the sixth-least turnovers this year. Green Bay is actually more efficient on the group comparatively (14th in net yards per pass attempt, 10th in yards per carry), but rank only 22nd in rushing attempts. They’ve only accumulated ten rushing touchdowns this season, compared to 30 by pass. This is not good news for Chicago, who majors in stopping the run.
The Bears defense is playing like a whole new group compared to these two teams’ first meeting. Chicago has allowed the fifth-least yards per carry, second-least rushing touchdowns, and very least rushing yards in the NFL this season. Unsurprisingly, they’ve faced the second-least rushing attempts; teams have given up trying to run against them. This is partially due to the way opponents have found success passing the ball.
Over the course of the whole season, the Bears have allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns. However, net yards per pass attempt against has been steadily decreasing each week after a horrid start to the season. This secondary has really stepped up its game, including stacking up an insane amount of interceptions over the last two months or so. After sitting at the bottom of the league in turnovers nearly halfway through the season, the defense has managed to catapult to first in interceptions after usurping San Francisco last week in a four-pick performance.
Green Bay does most of its work through the air, but RB Aaron Jones has paved the way to the teams’ last two victories, running for 120+ yards in each of them. That will not happen this week, so Jordon Love will have to sling the ball. With all of the throwing, I definitely expect the Packers to bust some long pass plays and touchdowns. However, this will also come along with multiple interceptions. Love will play aggressively, but he’ll have to make sure that this leads to more good than harm.
Switching sides, we have two lesser units. The Bears rank 25th in net yards per pass attempt, 22nd in passing touchdowns, and tenth in turnovers. However, it is very good on the ground. Aided by QB Justin Fields incredible rushing ability, the offense is sixth in yards per carry and second in rushing yards and attempts. It is much more balanced than Green Bay’s offense in terms of scoring, with 19 passing touchdowns compared to 16 rushing touchdowns on the year.
The Packers defense has struggled this year. It’s given up the ninth-most yards per play, including the 12th-most net yards per pass attempt and 11th-most yards per carry. The unit is 31st in interceptions (only seven). It will have a difficult time with Chicago on offense, especially on the ground. The Packers have allowed the fifth-most rushing touchdowns this year. It will be interesting to see what Justin Fields can contribute on the ground. The Packers have not faced one good running quarterback this season besides Fields in Week 1. Over his last two games, Fields has run for 142 yards and two touchdowns. He also threw for 268 yards last week against a good Falcons secondary. With clear advantages both on the ground and through the air, I think that the Bears offense could have a very nice day in Lambeau Field.
In all, this is going to be a great game. I see the Packers offense and Bears defense cancelling each other out to an extent, but the Bears offense could feast on a poor Packers defensive group. The Bears win juicy one in Week 18.