Sunday | 1:00 ET
The New Orleans Saints will host the Chicago Bears on Sunday in what could be a lopsided affair. Chicago hasn’t won in the Superdome since 2005, and things may stay this way with quarterback Justin Fields already ruled out due to an injury to his throwing thumb. Rookie Tyson Bagent will make his third career start against a fantastic Saints defense. Chicago’s season is already a lost cause, but the Saints come in at 4-4, still very much in contention for the NFC South title. They can not afford to drop a game at home to team like the Bears.
On offense, the Bears have looked very different in the last few weeks with Tyson Bagent under center. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy has almost exclusively drawn up quick passes that allow for Bagent to get the ball out of his hands and into his playmakers’. I worry about if this will bode well for him and the Bears this week, as New Orleans has two very scary corners in Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo. These two will be expecting wide receiver screens and quick passes and will probably blow up several of these plays. The Saints have given up the third least yards per pass attempt in the NFL this season (5.3).
In addition, they have the sixth highest average depth of target against. This means that teams typically try to go deep on them, probably for the previously listed reasons. Luke Getsy has clearly shown that he doesn’t trust Bagent to throw deep passes. Don’t expect Bagent to improve upon last week’s stat line (232 yards, two interceptions).
For the Bears offense to work, the rushing game needs to lead the way. The Saints rank 6th in PFF run defense grade as a whole. Linebacker Demario Davis ranks 6th in PFF run defense grade in his position. Edge rushers Cam Jordan and Carl Granderson also grade out well against the run. Granderson is also a player to watch in terms of rushing the passer; he leads the team with 5.5 sacks. He could give Bears left tackle Larry Borom a difficult time.
On the other side of the ball, both the Bears defense and Saints offense have had rough seasons thus far. The Saints, however, may be finally coming around. The team put up 38 points last week. Running back Alvin Kamara is on a tear, doing much of his work in the passing game. WR Chris Olave is a great talent, but has been underwhelming this season. WR Rasheed Shaheed has produced almost as many receiving yards in just under half of the targets that Olave has gotten. QB Derek Carr has thrown for 300 yards in three straight games and will look to continue the streak against the Bears.
Newly acquired edge rusher Montez Sweat seems likely to suit up for his first game as a Chicago Bear. The Bears have not been able to create any sort of pressure on opposing quarterbacks this season. They rank dead last in PFF pass rush grade. Getting pressure with four rushers is essential to head coach Matt Eberflus’ system, and Sweat will look help the issue.
The Saints should win this game easily. With the defense that they have, Tyson Bagent would be lucky to avoid another multi-interception outing. I correctly predicted that CJ Stroud would throw his first NFL interception against the Saints a couple of weeks ago, and I feel much less confident in Tyson Bagent’s decision-making. As long as the Saints can muster up a couple of touchdowns, they’ll acquire an easy win.