Sunday | 4:25 ET
In what projected to be a battle with first-round-bye implications before the season, the 6-6 Bills will head to Kansas City to take on the 8-4 Chiefs. The Bills are two weeks removed from firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Since he’s left, Buffalo has put up 32 points on a very good Jets defense and 34 points against the 10-2 Eagles. Unfortunately, it’s probably too late for them. Buffalo probably can’t lose another game and face a gauntlet to finish out the season. Kansas City, though its record is much better, may be playing worse than Buffalo right now. The Chiefs will come into Week 14 fresh off of a loss to the Jordan Love-led Packers, and still haven’t figured it out on offense. Still, Kansas City is in play for the 1 seed in the AFC and has major incentive to win this game.
The Bills offense is one of the most efficient in the NFL. It averages the third-most yards per play. Led by MVP candidate quarterback Josh Allen, Buffalo is fourth in net yards per pass attempt. Allen is second in the NFL with 24 touchdown passes and has added nine more on the ground. WR Stefon Diggs is one of the best in the league. Meanwhile, the Chiefs defense has been very strong in 2023. It gives up the second-least net yards per pass attempt. CB Trent McDuffie ranks seventh out of 117 qualified CBs in PFF grade. Diggs versus McDuffie is a matchup that I will be watching for. Both McDuffie and CB L’Jarious Sneed have great PFF pass rush grades. Kansas City loves to blitz its corners off of the edge and usually finds success with it multiple times per game. This is something that Josh Allen will have to be conscious of.
The run game is where the Bills should make their hay on Sunday. Buffalo averages the seventh-most yards per carry and is third in rushing first downs. Kansas City gives up the fifth-most yards per carry. Bills RB James Cook has a great opportunity to put the team on his back. Josh Allen should also be involved in the rushing attack. If the Bills move off of the status quo and focus on the run game, I think they could find success.
Switching sides, the Chiefs offense has been more efficient than it feels. Kansas City is tenth in both net yards per pass attempt and yards per carry. QB Patrick Mahomes is tied for fifth in passing touchdowns (22). Still, this offense has been held under 20 points in four of its last five games. The lack of reliable wide receivers is holding it back. The Bills have given up the eighth-least net yards per pass attempt and total passing yards this season, so I don’t expect the Chiefs to be too successful through the air.
Buffalo is not good against the run. Despite linebacker Tyrel Dodson ranking fifth in PFF run defense among LBs, the Bills have given up the fourth-highest yards per carry. Edge Gregory Rousseau is also a plus in this category, but DL Jordan Phillips and edge rusher Leonard Floyd are two of the worst in the NFL in this department. Similar to the Bills, the Chiefs will probably find the most success by running the football.
From the outside, Chiefs-Bills looks like a barn burner. You might think that Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen will be trading shots and deep touchdown passes. However, all signs point towards a run-heavy offensive gameplan from both teams. Unlike previous iterations of this matchup, I think that it could be gritty and even a bit ugly.
Turnovers had been the Achilles heel of the Bills offense, but it’s only surrendered two in its past two games. Winning the turnover battle allowed Buffalo to to crush New York and nearly defeat the Eagles. On the other side, Patrick Mahomes has thrown the fourth-most interceptions in the NFL. If Buffalo wins the turnover battle again, which I think it will, they’ll escape Arrowhead with a massive upset win.