Sunday | 8:20 ET
The Bills will face off against the Dolphins this week to cap off the 2023 regular season. While Miami is already locked into the playoffs, there is a decent chance that this will be a win-and-in game for Buffalo. As it stands now, the Bills could possibly secure the #2 seed in the AFC with a win, but face the possibility of missing the playoffs entirely with a loss. The winner of Bills-Dolphins wins the AFC East. Since Miami would lose home-field advantage to most teams with a loss this week, there is great incentives to win (or not lose) by both teams. The Bills come in winners of four straight, while the injury-ridden Dolphins will limp into the week after a 56-19 beatdown by the Ravens in Week 17.
On paper, the Dolphins offense versus the Dolphins defense is the hottest matchup. The Dolphins are first in total points, total yards, yards per carry, rushing touchdowns, and total passing yards. The unit is also second in net yards per pass attempt and fourth in passing touchdowns. However, the group is beat down. Star wide receiver Jaylen Waddle is likely to miss the game, running back Raheem Mostert missed last week’s game and is iffy for this week, and superstar WR Tyreek Hill is clearly not at full-strength, playing through injury. They’ll face off against a Bills defense that’s given up the fourth-least points, sixth-lowest net yards per pass attempt, least passing touchdowns, and forced the second-most turnovers. The only thing that Miami has going for themselves is the Bills run defense. The Bills give up the fourth-most yards per carry. However, they have been shutting down the rushing attack during their current four-game win streak, only allowing 93 yards per game in this stretch, on average (Miami’s offense averages 137.5 rushing yards per game), which would make it the sixth-best run defense in the league. I don’t feel great about the Dolphins offense this week, especially if Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle miss another week. Tyreek Hill will get his yards, but this won’t be the explosive offense that we are used to seeing in Miami.
On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins are even more decimated. After losing stud edge rusher Jaelan Phillips for the season a couple of weeks ago, cornerstone linebacker Bradley Chubb tore his ACL last week, and 4x Pro-Bowler CB Xavien Howard is likely to miss the contest. The injuries are accumulating, and it’s top-level players sustaining them. Miami had a ultra-talented defense heading into the year, and S Jevon Holland (3rd in PFF grade among 97 qualified safeties), Andrew Van Ginkel (7th in PFF grade among 114 qualified edge rushers) and Jalen Ramsey (26th in PFF grade among 125 qualified cornerbacks) are all still healthy. DT Christian Wilkins is also still a force against the run, and S Deshon Elliot is also having a great season against the run. The Bills are eighth in yards per carry this season, while the Dolphins have given up the eighth-least yards per carry.
Led by QB Josh Allen, the Bills passing game is elite. Buffalo is fifth in net yards per pass attempt and ranks third in PFF passing grade. The Dolphins are average against the pass this year, so Buffalo could exploit this. Miami’s pass rush is fantastic, ranking fourth in sacks and second in pressure percentage. However, the Bills have managed to take the least sacks in the NFL this season by a wide margin (only 21, next lowest is 27). This should not be a major issue for Buffalo, as it normally is for other Dolphins opponents.
In all, I think that the Dolphins are simply too beat-down. Miami’s defense will still be able to hold its own, but I don’t see Tua and the offense being able to produce enough. The Dolphins defense could hold them in the game, but the Bills-possibly in a must-win game- will come out on top.