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I never would have expected Broncos-Texans in Week 13 to be an intriguing matchup, but here we are. After a 1-5 start to the season, Denver has won five straight and is tied with the Texans and Colts at 6-5 in the last AFC wildcard spot. Their defense has been leading the way, allowing 22 points or less in each of the last five games (including a 24-9 victory over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs). The Texans are in the same position as the Broncos; they just have gotten there a little less dramatically. Rookie quarterback CJ Stroud is having an amazing year and is trying to squeak into the playoffs. With both teams vying for the same playoff spot, this is a must-win game for both parties.
The most interesting matchup is definitely the Texans offense versus the Broncos defense. Nearly every defensive metric hates the Broncos. They rank dead last in PFF defensive grade and have given up the second-most yards per play over the course of the season. However, these stats are skewed by the first half of the season, especially the historic 70-point outburst by the Dolphins in Week 3. Despite what the season-long numbers say, this defense (especially the secondary) is playing at a very high level now. Consider these opposing quarterback stat lines from the winning streak: Patrick Mahomes, 240 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT; Josh Allen, 177 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, Dorian Thompson Robinson, 134 yards, 1 TD. Led by star cornerback Pat Surtain II and safety Justin Simmons, Denver is a no-fly zone. However, they will be put to the test.
Texans QB CJ Stroud has been surgical in the passing game. He has established great connections with his wide receivers already, especially fellow rookie Tank Dell. Houston is fourth in passing yards and third in net yards per pass attempt. I can’t wait to see how this battle shakes out. Surtain II can only shadow one receiver, and the Texans have several viable receiving options in Dell, Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and Dalton Schultz.
While Houston’s passing attack is its strength and Denver’s coverage is its, neither group has similar prowess on the ground. The Broncos give up the most yards per carry in the NFL (5.4), while the Texans gain the fourth-least yards per carry (3.7). I would expect things to lean the Houston’s way. Though the season-long numbers are not good, Texans running back Devin Singletary has recorded two 100+ rushing yard games in the last three weeks. I think that we will have another great game and allow the passing game to open up.
Switching sides, it’s tough to tell who has the upper hand. The Texans defense gives up the eighth-most yards per play. Still, rookie edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. is having a good rookie year (6th in PFF run defense grade among edge rushers) and linebacker Blake Cashman is having a breakout season. Led by Anderson Jr. and Cashman, Houston has allowed the fourth-least yards per carry this season. The Broncos are barely above average in rushing this season, so I’d expect them to have trouble on the ground. QB Russell Wilson will need to step up and make some big throws against a Texans defense that allows the fourth-most net yards per pass attempt. He certainly could, but I don’t like that fact that he will be relied upon so heavily.
This is a really difficult decision, but I’ll take the Texans. Devin Singletary will need to have a big game, and I think he will. On the other side, I still don’t trust Wilson to put the team on his shoulders and throw his way into a win.