Sunday | 1:00 ET
Though the spread says Baltimore -6, I think that Browns-Ravens will be an entertaining matchup to watch on Sunday. Divisional AFC North games are always hard-fought, gritty games. I expect the same this week, especially with arguably the best two defenses in the league. The Ravens come in at 7-2, winners of four straight. They have a strong case for being the best team in the NFL. The way that they dismantled both the Lions and Seahawks (combined records of 11-5) by more than 30 points is immensely impressive. Cleveland is sitting at 5-3, only trailing Baltimore in the division. They lost big to the Ravens in Week 4 without QB Deshaun Watson, 28-3, and will look to gain back some pride. The defense is still top-tier and will need to perform to the height of its abilities to get a win on Sunday.
The Ravens offense is phenomenal. There is nothing it can’t do. Against Detroit, they rode QB Lamar Jackson’s arm to the win. He threw for 357 yards and 3 touchdowns. Typically, the rushing attack is the focal point. Just last week, RB Keaton Mitchell ran for 138 yards while Gus Edwards accounted for 52 yards and 2 touchdowns all against a good Seahawks defense. In addition, the quarterback obviously runs very well, and the Ravens even have a top-3 receiving tight end in the NFL in Mark Andrews. Baltimore is first in the NFL in rushing yards, first in rushing touchdowns, and second in yards per carry. They are also fifth in yards per pass attempt.
The Cleveland Browns defense will be tasked with slowing down this beast of an offense. This group started of the season on a generational run (especially in terms of rush defense), but have come back to Earth. Still, it is a top unit with a lot of talent. They rank first in PFF pash rush grade. Edge rusher Myles Garrett is a top-five player in the NFL and already has 9.5 sacks (second in NFL). In addition, Cleveland has given up the least passing yards in the league (by over 100 yards). CB Denzel Ward and S Juan Thronhill headline the secondary.
I expect Mark Andrews to play a huge factor. Though linebackers Anthony Walker Jr. and Jeremiah Owusa-Koramoah are great against the run, they do not grade out well in coverage.
Flipping sides, the Ravens have a major advantage. Headlined by star linebacker Roquan Smith (fourth in PFF grade among LBs) and a fantastic secondary, Baltimore has given up the least points in the league in 2023 (just ahead of Cleveland in second place). They allowed just six points to a potent Lions offense earlier in the year. The secondary ranks second in PFF coverage grade and has allowed the least net yards per pass attempt (again, just ahead of Cleveland in second place). Safety Kyle Hamilton is so dynamic and is used in a multitude of different ways. He ranks 11th in coverage grade and second in pass rush grade for his position.
The Browns have relied on the rushing attack in 2023. They rank third in rushing attempts and fifth in total rushing yards. The team hasn’t had much success passing the ball, but not many teams have against Baltimore. The Ravens are much more susceptible against the run, so Cleveland will almost certainly lean on RBs Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt.
In the end, I see the Ravens winning by multiple scores. Cleveland has a great defense, but I think that Baltimore is a buzz saw. Jackson and Andrews will break through and lead the way to another win.