The Chicago Bears come into the 2024 NFL season with a good bit of hype. Before diving into record predictions, it’s important to better understand the team by identifying its strengths and weaknesses.
Defense
Secondary
Starters: CB Jaylon Johnson, CB Tyrique Stevenson NCM Kyler Gordon, S Jaquon Brisker, S Kevin Byard
Notable Backups: S Jonathan Owens, CB Terrell Smith
Starting things off on a high note, this secondary could blossom into one of the best in the league. The raw 2023 numbers aren’t great, but don’t get it twisted. The group finally gelled by about Week 12 and churned out high-quality results from then until the conclusion of the season. It posted its 4 highest PFF coverage grade games in the final 6 weeks (posting 3 interceptions in one of the unincluded games, a win against Detroit). This group also led the Bears defense to finish tied for first in interceptions last year.
Specifically, 2nd round rookie cornerback Tyrique Stevenson came vastly improved throughout the season, even posting his first mutli-interception game against the Falcons in Week 17. It also nearly goes without saying, but this secondary might boast the best cornerback in the NFL in Jaylon Johnson. Johnson finished 2nd among CBs in PFF coverage grade in 2023, only finishing behind Jets phenom Sauce Gardner. With him locking down number one wide receivers weekly, it gives Stevenson, Gordon and Brisker more opportunities to make plays.
With the only new addition to the projected starters being respected veteran Kevin Byard, this unit shouldn’t have much more shaping out in store. Instead, I expect it to carry forward its play from the end of 2023 and be a top five secondary in the NFL.
Linebackers
Starters: MLB Tremaine Edmunds, WLB TJ Edwards, SLB Jack Sanborn
Backups: LB Noah Sewell, LB Amen Ogbongbemiga
As it should be, Chicago’s linebacking core is another one of its strengths heading into 2024. There’s not much to say here; after bolstering the unit with Edmunds and Edwards last offseason, there has been nothing to complain about (even with Edmunds finishing with the lowest PFF grade of his career). Edwards finished 2023 7th in tackles, and the duo combined for 7 interceptions throughout the course of the season. With Edmunds bound to bounce back, and dependable strong side linebacker Jack Sanborn popping in for 10-20 snaps per game, the linebacking core is as solid as they come.
Defensive Line
Projected Starters: DE Montez Sweat, DE Demarcus Walker, DT Andrew Billings, DT Gervon Dexter Sr.
Notable Backups: DE Austin Booker, DE Dominique Robinson, DE Darrell Taylor
I see this front four as the team’s most glaring weakness. Despite finishing 2023 31st in sacks and 32nd in PFF pass rush grade, the projected starters remain the same. GM Ryan Poles improved the team greatly in other areas, but ignored the defensive line for the most part. He did select DE Austin Booker in the fifth round of the draft, who had a very promising preseason. If Booker turns out to be a diamond in the rough, it would be a tremendous value to the team. Montez Sweat is a star; with another above-average pass rusher opposite of him, the front four could be a lot more productive.
Overall, I think that Sweat- aided by the additions of Booker and Darrell Taylor (5.5 sacks last season)- will be able to pick up enough slack to keep the unit serviceable. Luckily, that may be all that Chicago needs. With such a talented back-seven working behind them, the pressure is off of the defensive line. If they make a play: great. If they don’t make a play, the secondary or linebackers will step up. As a whole, the defense finished off last season very strong with these same players rushing the quarterback. While I do worry about the prospect of an injury or two derailing this group, I don’t think the line will decimate the talented defense.
Offense
Quarterback
Starter: Caleb Williams
Backup: Tyson Bagent
With number one overall pick Caleb Williams coming into the fold this season, I think it’s safe to expect the offense to look quite a bit different than last year. I already feel confident that the Bears have upgraded at the quarterback position, despite Williams’ rookie status. He’s going to make mistakes, throw bad interceptions, and make some bad decisions. However, he’s also going to make incredible plays and learn from his mistakes. I have full confidence in both his ability and his mental makeup. Plus, with the weapons at his disposal, he won’t be tainted by the players around him like previous Chicago quarterbacks.
Tyson Bagent is also a high quality backup and a player that I would be comfortable plugging in for a few games if needed. He showed that he is a competent NFL quarterback last year in his short stint towards the back half of the season.
Skill Positions:
Projected Starters: RB D’Andre Swift, TE Cole Kmet, WR DJ Moore, WR Keenan Allen, WR Rome Odunze
Notable Backups: RB Khalil Herbert, RB Roschon Johnson, TE Gerald Everett, TE Marcedes Lewis, WR Tyler Scott
If the secondary isn’t the team’s biggest strength, the skill position group is. With star WR Keenan Allen and the ultra-talented rookie in Rome Odunze added during the offseason, Chicago unarguably possesses a top-five wide receiver room. Khalil Herbert was serviceable at running back last year, but Poles kicked off free agency with a splash by signing D’Andre Swift almost immediately. His ability to catch passes from the half back position will add a new wrinkle to the offense.
This star-studded group of offensive weapons will be exciting to watch this season. In addition to the highlight reel plays, they will make rookie QB Caleb Williams’ job much easier than it should be. These receivers will get open quicker and more often than most. Williams will be able to rely on his playmakers to make plays instead of feeling like everything rests upon his shoulders.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters: T Darnell Wright, T Braxton Jones, G Teven Jenkins, G Nate Davis, C Coleman Shelton
Notable Backups: C Ryan Bates, T Kiran Amegadjie
The offensive line could be another weakness for the Bears in 2023. Helmed by second-year tackle Darnell Wright and talented guard Teven Jenkins, the right side is strong. It’s the left side that gives me pause. Braxton Jones is servicable at left tackle, but projected starter Nate Davis hardly sees the field. Jenkins also has had massive issues with injury over the past couple of seasons. With new additions Coleman Shelton and Ryan Bates fighting for the center spot, I feel like there should be an improvement there compared to last year. But, the injury-prone players combined with the limited depth of this group worries me.
However, I don’t think that the offensive line will cause major issues this year. The reason is Caleb Williams and his receivers. Last year, the offensive line probably looked worse than it truly was, because of the quarterback. Justin Fields’ tendency to hold onto the ball for far too long was and remains his biggest flaw as a quarterback. With a more decisive ball handler, the line won’t have to protect for as long. In addition, Caleb’s receivers should, in theory, get open quicker and more often than the group last season. For these reasons, I think that the offensive line’s potential struggles will be mostly masked by the strong groups that it will be working beside.
Consensus
Overall, I am quite high on the team. Led by the secondary, I think that the defense will be one of the best in the league. With a rookie quarterback, I see the offense starting off slow. However, similar to the defense last year, I expect Williams to become acclimated and bring everything together towards the back half of the season. If that happens, Chicago could be one of the most dangerous teams by December.
Game-by-Game Predictions
Week 1: Tennessee Titans | Soldier Field
WIN \ (1-0)
Williams- with the help of his talented supporting cast- will kick the season off on the right foot Week 1 against the Titans, likely in a tight game.
Week 2: Houston Texans | NRG Stadium
LOSS \ (1-1)
This should be a fun game to watch, but it’s tough to see this new offense outplaying CJ Stroud and co. this early in the season.
Week 3: Indianapolis Colts | Lucas Oil Stadium
LOSS \ (1-2)
As long as QB Anthony Richardson stays healthy, I see the Colts as a dangerous team this season. On the road, this is a tricky matchup that I don’t see the Bears winning.
Week 4: Los Angeles Rams | Soldier Field
WIN \ (2-2)
The Bears get back on track at home here against the Rams. LA should only improve upon last season, where they qualified for the postseason, but I think that a Chicago team desperate for a win will prevail at home.
Week 5: Carolina Panthers | Soldier Field
WIN \ (3-2)
The Panthers don’t project to be good this year, and the Bears will take advantage and stack another home win.
Week 6: Jacksonville Jaguars | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
LOSS \ (3-3)
It’s always tough to face the Jaguars in England, as they have built a fan base there over the years. Since they play across the pond every season, Jacksonville’s squad is also experienced in dealing with the time change and logistics of the trip. The Bears probably lose this one.
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: Washington Commanders | Northwest Stadium
WIN \ (4-3)
Coming out of the bye week, the Bears will be ready to face Jayden Daniels and the Commanders, who are in rebuild-mode.
Week 9: Arizona Cardinals | State Farm Stadium
LOSS \ (4-4)
The Cardinals are a team that feels a little underrated to me. Kyler Murray is talented (and healthy) and should be able to lead an improved offense this year with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr.
Week 10: New England Patriots | Soldier Field
WIN \ (5-4)
The Patriots could be the worst team in the NFL this year; the Bears are too talented to drop this game.
Week 11: Green Bay Packers | Soldier Field
LOSS \ (5-5)
In Williams’ first go at the Packers, it will be an overwhelming week. I think that Jordan Love bests Caleb Williams in their first battle.
Week 12: Minnesota Vikings | Soldier Field
WIN \ (6-5)
The Bears will bounce back with a win against the Sam Darnold-led Vikings. The offense should be gelling around this point in the season.
Week 13: Detroit Lions | Ford Field
LOSS \ (6-6)
Week 13’s matchup at Ford Field marks the start of a very difficult two-game stretch. The Lions could make it to the Super Bowl this year; I can’t take the Bears over them in Detroit.
Week 14: San Francisco 49ers | Levi’s Stadium
LOSS \ (6-7)
The 49ers have been one of the best and most consistent teams in the NFL over the past few years. There is no reason for them to slow down this season. The Bears will have a tough time keeping up with them Week 14, and fall below .500.
Week 15: Minnesota Vikings | U.S. Bank Stadium
WIN \ (7-7)
With their backs against the wall, this Vikings game will kick off a much-needed winning streak for the Bears.
Week 16: Detroit Lions | Soldier Field
WIN \ (8-7)
The Bears have played well against Detroit recently despite their successes. A second shot at them, at home, will allow the Bears to even out the season series.
Week 17: Seattle Seahawks | Soldier Field
WIN \ (9-7)
While I believe that the Seahawks are being underrated heading into the season, I also think that the Bears could be one of the most dangerous teams in the league by Week 17. By this point, Caleb Williams will have nearly an entire season under his belt.
Week 18: Green Bay Packers | Lambeau Field
WIN \ (10-7)
In what could be a must-win game, I think that the surging Bears will grab a dramatic victory at Lambeau Field. The offense should be fully evolved and firing on all cylinders.