Sunday | 6:30 ET
After a full season’s worth of NFL football, one game is all that stands between the league crowning a champion. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Andy Reid are back the the Super Bowl yet again (along with Taylor Swift), this time to face off against the star-studded San Francisco 49ers again in a rematch of 2019’s big game. Kansas City comes in as defending Super Bowl Champions, looking to be the first team to go back-to-back since Tom Brady and the Patriots in ’03 and ’04. San Francisco has lost in each of its last two Super Bowl appearances, and hasn’t won one since 1994 with Steve Young at quarterback. After falling to the Chiefs in the 2019 Super Bowl, many 49ers players will have extra motivation (not that it’s needed). Notably, the Chiefs have lost WR Tyreek Hill in the passed time, while the 49ers have added RB Christian McCaffrey. Will the tables turn in this edition of Chiefs-49ers?
The 49ers had the best offense in the NFL this season. Propelled by offensive genius head coach Kyle Shanahan, RB Christian McCaffrey, TE George Kittle, WR Deebo Samuel, WR Brandon Aiyuk, and LT Trent Williams, it averaged the most net yards per pass attempt (8.4, second place was 7.6), fourth-most yards per carry, threw for the second-most passing touchdowns, and rushed for the most rushing touchdowns in the league. QB Brock Purdy threw four more touchdowns and 97 more passing yards than Patrick Mahomes on 153 less pass attempts in 2023. San Francisco has the most efficient offense in the NFL.
On defense, the Chiefs have been fantastic all season long. They allowed the second-least total points this season. This unit has a major strength against the pass, allowing the third-least net yards per pass attempt this year. While they greatly struggled to get interceptions (only eight), they allowed just 19 passing touchdowns (T-3rd). Discounting Week 18, last week Lamar Jackson was the first quarterback to throw for over 200 yards against Kansas City since Week 13. Still, he only managed one touchdown and a 54% completion percentage. In the Super Bowl, I could see Kansas City slowing down the 49ers passing game. However, I don’t see how this group would be able to hone in the running game at the same time. San Francisco is also extremely lethal in the rushing attack, while Kansas City’s defense takes a huge drop off in this departement. It allowed the eighth-most yards per carry this season. While it has held running backs in check recently, this defense hasn’t had to deal with CMC yet, who finished as the NFL’s leading rusher this season. If the Chiefs stack the box to try to limit the run game, I think that Purdy will be able to get the pass game going. If not, then CMC will run up and down the field. Kansas City’s defense is really good, but the 49ers offense is too balanced.
Switching sides, the Chiefs offense has really picked up the slack recently. Now that the playoffs have rolled around, Travis Kelce is back to his full form. He and Patrick Mahomes looked like supervillains against Baltimore last week as they made several miraculous plays en route to an 11 catch, 116 yard and a TD performance out of Kelce (after two-TDs in Buffalo the week prior). Against the best secondary in the league, Mahomes managed 241 yards, a 76% completion percentage, and no interceptions against the defense that finished third in picks in the regular season. The 49ers, whom he will face in the Super Bowl, finished second in interceptions. After facing arguably the best defense in the NFL last week, things won’t get much easier for Kansas City.
The 49ers allowed the third-least points this season, finished fifth in takeaways, allowed the fifth-least net yards per pass attempt, and third-least rushing yards in the 2023 regular season. The group did allow 31 points last week to Detroit, but the Lions have a much more efficient offense than the Chiefs. In addition, the Niners held the Lions to zero points in the second half until a very late Detroit touchdown. While Travis Kelce has been great, he’ll have to deal with two of the best coverage linebackers in the NFL in Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. Both Kansas City’s offense and San Francisco’s defense are average in the running game, so I’d expect Chiefs RB Isaiah Pacheco to have a decent showing. But in all, I don’t expect Kansas City to put up more than the 17 points they scored last week.
In the end, the 49ers win this game. For the first half of the season, they clearly felt like the league’s strongest team. After some difficulty in the middle of the season, they are right back to feeling unstoppable on offense. I think that the strength of both the run and pass game will be too much for Kansas City’s defense. On top of that, I don’t think Purdy and co. will even need to put up crazy numbers. With Kelce in a tough matchup, the Chiefs offense could really struggle. Now, because it’s Patrick Mahomes, I know he’ll pull some magic tricks off. But still, it shouldn’t be enough.