Sunday | 4:25 ET
Both the Dolphins and Cowboys will head into Week 16 at 10-4, second place in their conference. Each team is holding out hope of securing a first round bye in its respective conference, so a win this week is vital. The Cowboys are fresh off of a worrying loss in Buffalo. The Bills ended a five game Cowboys winning streak with a dominant 31-10 win last week. While Josh Allen had a quiet day, Buffalo running back James Cook logged 179 rushing yards on the Cowboys defense. Meanwhile, the Dolphins spent Week 15 bludgeoning the New York Jets, 30-0. Without Tyreek Hill (who I expect to return this week), Miami was able to lean on WR Jaylen Waddle and RB Raheem Mostert for an easy win. Notably, the Dolphins held Jets RB Breece Hall to 12 rushing yards on six carries.
This matchup features two of the best offenses in the NFL. The Dolphins are first in the league in total points. Miami is elite in both the passing and rushing attack. The offense is first in passing yards (QB Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL) and second in net yards per pass attempt. It features the best wide receiver in the league, Tyreek Hill. Hill is first in both receiving yards (1542) and receiving touchdowns (12). After missing last week’s game due to injury, I expect him to suit up against the Cowboys. Considering the prowess of the Miami passing attack, the Cowboys defense is one of the only units that could slow it down. Dallas has allowed the fifth-least points this season, and allows the eighth-least net yards per pass attempt. Its secondary is so good that the defense has faced the second-least pass attempts in the NFL. Cornerback DaRon Bland has an NFL-record five pick sixes on the year. I can’t wait to see what the Dolphins can do through the air. I’d bet that Hill still finds a way to get his 100+ yards.
While things could come to a stalemate through the air, the Dolphins offense has a clear advantage on the ground. Led by running back Raheem Mostert, rookie RB Devon Achane, and head coach Mike McDaniel’s infinite knowledge of the running game, the Dolphins sit at first in yards per carry, fourth in rushing yards, and first in rushing touchdowns. Mostert leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 18. The Dolphins have the best rushing attack in the NFL, and will be a handful for the Dallas run defense. The Cowboys have allowed the 13th-most yards per carry this season. Last week, the unit was able to hold Josh Allen to only 94 passing yards, but it didn’t matter. RB James Cook was able to dominate the Dallas defense through the running game, racking up 179 rushing yards. Going up against the most efficient rushing attack in the league, I fear that the Cowboys may see the same fate this week.
Switching sides, the matchup is just as interesting. The Cowboys are second in total points, led by QB Dak Prescott and star WR CeeDee Lamb. Prescott was the MVP frontrunner heading into last week, and is second in the NFL in passing touchdowns. Dallas ranks sixth in net yards per pass attempt and sixth in passing yards. It will face a good Miami secondary that has given up the seventh-least net yards per pass attempt this season. Safety Jevon Holland ranks second in PFF grade out of 94 qualified safeties. Former Pro-Bowlers Xavien Howard and Jalen Ramsey fill out the cornerback room. This is a good Dolphins secondary, but I do expect Prescott to find some success through the air based on his level of play this season.
On the ground, the Cowboys are solid. They rank 11th in yards per carry and 12th in rushing yards. Unfortunately for them, the Dolphins are fantastic against the run. Miami allows the fourth-least yards per carry. Big DT Christian Wilkins is a good run stopper, and LB David Long Jr. ranks first in PFF run defense grade among 77 qualified linebackers. I don’t expect Cowboys RB Tony Pollard to find success on the ground.
After doing the research, I find myself leaning towards a Dolphins victory this week. The Dolphins are the best in the league at running the football, and the Cowboys lost last week because of the massive amount of rushing yards that the Bills (a less efficient running team) put up. Mostert and Achane will feast, and Tyreek Hill is too good to stay quiet. I do think that the Cowboys will score a decent amount of points, but Dak won’t be able to keep up with Miami. The Dolphins are also third in pressure percentage, so (forced to pass) Prescott will be under fire. Dolphins win.