Saturday | 8:00 ET
The Miami Dolphins will limp into the frigid confines of Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the first round of the playoffs on Saturday. While “Dolphins-Chiefs” may sound like a barnburner, this is going to be a low-scoring affair. The Chiefs never found their footing offensively this season, so I wouldn’t expect much to change now. The Dolphins offense has been dealing with injuries to every key skill position player (Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, Devon Achane) besides the quarterback. They’ll be challenged with a rock solid Kansas City defense. To me, the main story of this game is Miami’s injuries. With Hill banged up, Waddle and Mostert’s availability up in the air, and without Jaelan Phillips, Jerome Baker, Andrew Van Ginkel, Bradley Chubb, and more on defense, the Dolphins are going to have to overcome a lot to win on the road this week.
When the Dolphins have the ball, we used to expect explosiveness. However, WR Tyreek Hill, who provided the majority of it, was injured a few weeks back and is clearly not playing at 100%. Over his last two games, he’s put up 158 receiving yards. There were five times this season in which he put up at least 157 yards in a single game. While averaging 29 points per game over the course of the season, the Dolphins averaged 18.3 points over their last three games, all against playoff teams. This week’s opponent, the Chiefs, have just as good of a defense (if not, better) as Miami’s recent opponents. Kansas City hasn’t given up more than 20 points since Week 13.
The one thing that Miami’s offense has going for itself is the run game. It is first in the NFL in terms of yards per carry, though it plateaued in the final quarter of the season. Still, the Chiefs are very good against the pass, but give up the seventh-most yards per carry. With Tua’s passing game shut down by the conditions and stout Chiefs secondary, Miami will live and die on Mostert and Achan’s ability to get yards on the ground. Based on the past few weeks (and Mostert’s questionable status) I wouldn’t count on it.
On the other side of the ball, the surprisingly underwhelming Chiefs offense will face the heavily beaten-down Dolphins defense. Luckily for Vic Fangio and Miami, the defensive group is so star-studded that there are still talented players healthy. Safety Jevon Hollard, cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard, defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, and linebacker David Long Jr. are all top-of-the-line starters that are good to go for the Wildcard Round. Specifically, there are still some run-stoppers manning this defense. The Dolphins gave up the eighth-least yards per carry and sixth-least rushing yards in 2023. This strength may keep them in this game.
One thing that I worry about with the Dolphins is the pass rush. Throughout the season, it was the strength of the defense. Miami was finished first in QB knockdown percentage this season and third in pressure percentage. However, I don’t think that this will continue into the playoffs. The Dolphins have backups in at both edge positions (down Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips). Losing Andrew Van Ginkel, who was hurt only last week, is also a massive blow the pass rush. Van Kinkel had a 90.6 PFF pass rush grade this season (which is elite) and racked up eight sacks. To make matters even worse, Patrick Mahomes doesn’t take sacks. The Chiefs are second in sack percentage and sacks taken. With a clean pocket, Mahomes will have ample time to wait for routes to develop. Whether or not his poor wide receiver group will be able to get open remains to be revealed.
Overall, I’m afraid that this could be a pretty ugly game. I think that both teams will struggle to score. But the end, Miami’s injuries will prove too difficult to overcome.