Sunday | 1:00 ET
The red-hot Ravens will host the Dolphins this week in a game that is monumental in determining the number one seed in the AFC. The Ravens are riding a six-game winning streak, and just dominated the 49ers in what could have been a Super Bowl preview in last week’s edition of Monday Night Football. Miami also had a big win last week, theirs against the Cowboys. Baltimore currently sits atop the AFC conference at 12-3, but the Dolphins are only one game back at 11-4. If Miami wins, they will be tied with Baltimore and hold the tiebreaker due to head-to-head record. This is a very important game when it comes to first round byes in the playoffs.
QB Tua Tagovailoa has led the Dolphins offense to score the most points in the NFL this season. He leads the league in passing yards and completion percentage. WR Tyreek Hill is an MVP candidate, leading the NFL with 1,641 receiving yards on the season. However, this passing attack may not find as much success this week compared to previous games due to the absence of WR Jaylen Waddle and the difficult matchup against the Ravens defense. Baltimore has given up the least points in the NFL this season, and is best against the pass. The Ravens have allowed the least net yards per pass attempt and have given up the least passing touchdowns this season. Safety Kyle Hamilton, arguably the best secondary player for the Ravens, is “uncertain at best” for this week’s game, which will hurt. But still, S Marcus Williams, and CB Marlon Humphrey will hold it down on the back side. Star linebackers Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen are both also very good in coverage. None of Baltimore’s players are fast enough to run with Tyreek Hill though, so he’ll still get his yards.
Although it’s very difficult to stop Hill, the Dolphins may have trouble getting the ball to any other pass catchers. The Ravens also have a fantastic pass rush, ranking first in sacks this season. Luckily, Miami has is magnificent at running the ball, ranking first in yards per carry (5.0) and rushing touchdowns (26). Baltimore gives up the 11th-most yards per carry, so the Dolphins have an advantage here on paper. However, it should be noted how Miami’s two previous contest have went. Albeit against better run defenses, the Dolphins ran for only 3.5 yards per carry last week, and 2.8 yards per carry in Week 15. I expected RBs Mostert and Achane to have massive games against Dallas, but there was nowhere for them to run. If the Dolphins can’t run the ball well this week in Baltimore, they will not come out with the win.
Both teams are also strong on the other side of the ball. The Ravens are fourth in total points and the Dolphins give up the fifth-least yards per play. Baltimore can do anything on offense, but especially excels at running the ball. The Ravens sit only behind the Dolphins in rushing touchdowns and net yards per rush attempt. However, they also rank first in rushing attempts. If the Ravens can get by just pounding the rock, they will. The Dolphins give up the seventh-least yards per carry. The run defense is solid, but is no where near as effective as the pass rush, which ranks second in both sacks and pressure percentage. All signs point towards the Ravens employing a heavy running strategy against this week. Led by MVP frontrunner QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore is seventh in net yards per pass attempt. However, his rushing abilities combined with the injury to WR Zay Flowers, and the strength of the Dolphins pass rush and secondary suggests a lot of running plays on Sunday.
Ultimately, I see the Ravens winning at home on Sunday afternoon. The recent lack of ability to run the ball by the Dolphins (which used to be a major strength) worries me, as I don’t see Tua being able to win the game solely through the air against the best secondary in the NFL. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s offense is a well-oiled machine that just put up 33 points on the 49ers last week. Add in the home field advantage, and you have a Ravens win on your hands.