Keys to the Game
Jaguars
- Attack Chicago’s Injury-Stricken Secondary
- Have the Running Backs Set the Tone
With Chicago’s injuries, the first thing that Jacksonville needs to do to emerge victorious this Sunday morning is attack the secondary. While the Bears are tied for 4th in interceptions, have given up only 2 passing touchdowns (T-2nd), and allow the 5th-least net yards per pass attempt this season, they have been bitten by the injury bug. Starting safety Jaquan Brisker is ruled out after sustaining a concussion in last week’s contest, starting cornerback Tyrique Stevenson is doubtful with a calf injury, and his would-be replacement Terrell Smith has been dealing with a hip injury since the start of the season and is ruled out for Week 6.
While Jacksonville has struggled passing the ball this year (18th in passing yards, 22nd in net yards per attempt), they need to attack this talented defense’s new potential weakness. Last week, quarterback Trevor Lawrence broke the mold of the first 4 weeks and threw for 371 yards. He and talented rookie WR Bryan Thomas Jr. have a chance to have another big day this week.
While the Jaguars need to take advantage of the Bears’ defensive injuries, they also need to make sure that they maintain a balance between the run and pass. Jacksonville is 2nd in yards per carry this year, and the Bears actually give up the 10th-most yards per carry. The Jags should be able to find some success on the ground and use it to make matters even more difficult for the secondary over the course of the game.
Bears
- Punish Awful Jaguars Secondary
- Take Advantage of Turnover Ratio
Similar to last week, the Bears will face a team that struggles mightily to contain the pass. The Jaguars have allowed the most passing yards in the NFL up to this point, as well as the 2nd-most passing touchdowns (10) and 4th-most net yards per pass attempt, all while recording zero interceptions in the process. Considering the unit has also been stiff against the run this year, it will be important for Caleb Williams and the offense to gain yardage through the air this week. Coming off of his second 300-yard, multi-TD game of his 5 game career, I think that Williams is in line for a productive Sunday morning.
Another key to victory this week for Chicago is to take advantage of the turnover margin. If the first 5 games of the season are any indicator, the Bears should have the the upper hand in the turnover category. 18.3% of opponent drives end in a turnover for the Chicago defense (3rd in NFL), while only 1.9% do for Jacksonville (32nd). Chicago needs to not only win the turnover battle, but actually take advantage of it. If the defense gives the offense a short field, it needs to be converted. This is an area where the Bears could grab an upper hand.
What’s the Move?
OVER 43.5 (ESPNBet)
After diving into the stats, I think that this game could be a barn-burner. Things always get a bit weird with overseas games, but I still think that the ‘over’ is the best bet. The Bears defense is elite, but will have to deal with injuries for the first time this season. On the other side of the ball, Caleb Williams and Shane Waldron’s offense seem to have found their stride and will face a poor Jaguars defense.