Sunday | 1:00 ET
The Jags will visit the Texans in Houston on Sunday in a game that is integral in determining the AFC South divisional champion. Jacksonville comes in at 7-3, Houston at 6-4. The Texans crushed the Jaguars in Week 3 in rookie wide receiver Tank Dell’s breakout game. Jacksonville could take a commanding lead in the division with a win. Texans rookie sensation quarterback CJ Stroud will look for the season sweep, which would put the Texans in prime position to take the South.
2nd overall draft pick CJ Stroud has been unbelievable this season. Only ten games into his NFL career, he is second in the NFL in passing yards, first in passing yards per game, and tied for tenth in passing touchdowns (with Patrick Mahomes). In Week 10 he went head-to-head with Joe Burrow and was able to out-duel him in a shootout, winning the game 30-27. He is on pace to put together arguably the most impressive season a rookie quarterback has ever had.
Surrounding Stroud is a mixture of solid veterans and young talent. He has done an amazing of spreading the ball out across his receiving core. Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Noah Brown each have multiple 140+ receiving yard games this season. Collins was Stroud’s favorite target early in the season, but Dell has emerged recently as a phenomenal talent. Veterans Robert Woods and TE Dalton Schultz provide two more safety valves for Stroud. The Texans trust Stroud to throw at a high clip (tenth most pass attempts in NFL) and he has proven that he is extremely accurate and can already complete difficult passes down the field. The Jaguars defense will have its hands full.
Jacksonville has a solid unit that excels against the run. It gives up the tenth-least yards per rushing attempt. Meanwhile, the Texans are 30th in the NFL in yards per carry. They will be forced to pass. This is something that they have been accustomed to, but that doesn’t make things any easier. The Jags are tied for fourth in the league in interceptions and rank fourth in PFF coverage grade. Cornerback Darious Williams is especially potent in coverage, ranking fourth out of 114 qualified CBs in PFF coverage grade. This will be the toughest secondary CJ Stroud has faced since Week 3… against the Jaguars. I expect the Texans offense to break through a bit, but not to the tune of 30+ points like it has been.
Switching sides, we find another young quarterback. 2021 first overall pick Trevor Lawrence is trying to find some consistency. He is coming off of a great four-touchdown performance against Tennessee. Oddly similar to the Texans, the Jaguars offense almost entirely relies upon the passing game. Jacksonville is 28th in yards per carry, yet tenth in rushing attempts. They have won a couple of blowouts and some grind-it-out games, which is what has led to this. To move the ball most efficiently, they pass. The Jags are 13th in net yards per pass attempt and seventh in PFF passing grade.
The Texans are even better against the run than the Jaguars are, giving up the fifth-least yards per carry this season. Jacksonville will also be forced to pass the ball. WRs Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk provide two solid options for Lawrence, and RB Travis Etienne also is a big factor in the passing game. Houston gives up the eighth most net yards per pass attempt. CBs Steven Nelson and Tavierre Thomas grade out well on PFF, but has still given up solid numbers to opposing passing attacks.
The Texans and Jaguars are almost mirror images of each other. Both have a weak running game saved by a great passing attack. Both also do a fantastic job of stopping the run. Because of this, both teams allow high amounts of passing yards despite possessing what I see as strong secondaries because of opposing teams’ need to pass the ball. Ultimately, it comes down to the quarterback play. Oddly enough, I trust rookie QB CJ Stroud more than Trevor Lawrence, who already has a couple of seasons under his belt. No matter who comes out on top, this should be an entertaining, close game with a lot of passing.