Sunday | 6:30 ET
Dam Campbell and the Detroit Lions will head to Santa Clara to take on the 49ers this Sunday with a chance at making history. A win would mean a trip to the Super Bowl, something that the Lions have never achieved as a franchise. Both offenses in this matchup are top-tier, but San Francisco has the advantage on the defensive side of things. Still, the Lions are on a cinderella run, and have a real chance at punching a ticket to Las Vegas for the Super Bowl.
The Lions offense versus the 49ers defense is the most intriguing matchup. Detroit finished fifth in points this season. It is extremely effective both through the air and on the ground, finishing fifth in yards per carry, tied-first in rushing touchdowns, third in net yards per pass attempt, second in passing yards, and fifth in passing touchdowns. QB Jared Goff is fantastic in good weather, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is a superstar, the RB tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery is the best in the NFL, and the offensive line is not far off of that mark either. The Lions take a sack on only 4.9% of their dropbacks (fifth-lowest in NFL). I can’t wait to see what this phenomenal offense can do against the daunting 49er defense.
San Fransisco is star-studded on both sides of the ball, defense included. LB Fred Warner ranked first out of 83 qualified linebackers in PFF grade this year, while edge rusher Nick Bosa ranked second out of 118 qualified edges in the same stat. The starting eleven only features two players that are not in the top 30% percentile in PFF grade among their respective position (many are even much better). PFF grades don’t mean everything, but the 49ers obviously have the hard stats that prove its talent. San Francisco finished fifth-best in net yards per pass attempt allowed, first in interceptions, and gave up the third-least rushing yards in 2023. Last week, this defense forced Jordan Love’s first (and second) interception since Week 14, and held him under 200 passing yards for the first time since Week 6. Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown can not be stopped, but they will certainly be slowed down by this great pass defense this week.
As long as Detroit doesn’t get down big early, I think that it will be able to find success on the ground. The 49ers were only slightly above average in terms of yards per carry allowed in 2023, while the Lions finished fifth in yards per carry and tied for first in rushing touchdowns.
Switching sides, the 49ers offense was the best in the league this year. San Francisco finished third in points, first in net yards per pass attempt, fourth in passing yards, second in passing touchdowns, fourth in yards per carry, third in rushing yards, and tied for first in rushing touchdowns. RB Christian McCaffrey is unbelievable, and TE George Kittle, WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, and LT Trent Williams are each among the best in their positions.
Now, Detroit’s defense is very good against the run. No running back has run for over 69 yards in a single game against the Lions this season. CMC has hit that mark in eight of his last nine games, so I’m interesting to see how it all shakes out this week. Either way, the 49ers won’t need to rely on the run. The Lions allowed the third-most net yards per pass attempt this year. In two playoff games, Detroit has allowed over 700 passing yards and five passing touchdowns. Mike Evans racked up 147 receiving yards last week, while Puka Nacua had 181 the week before. If Deebo is out this week, Brandon Aiyuk would be set to go off. If he’s good to go, it could be either receiver.
In all, I expect this to be a close game. The Lions offense will face some resistance, but I think that it’s good enough to break through, especially in the running game. On the other side of the ball, the 49ers may initially have issues running the ball. However, Aiyuk (and possibly Samuel) is going to have an absolute field day with Detroit’s cornerbacks. Once the 49ers get a lead, the running game could also open up. If Detroit gets an early lead, the 49ers could still climb back through the passing game, but San Francisco gets up early, I think it’s a wrap.