Only four teams remain alive after the Divisional Round last week, which means that there are only three games remaining in the 2023 NFL season. While everyone is curious to see which team will hoist the Lombardi Trophy on February 11th, that team will have to make it through conference championship weekend first. Here is a preview to both the AFC and NFC Conference Championship games.
Chiefs at Ravens
Sunday | 3:00 ET
The first-seeded Baltimore Ravens will host- you guessed it- Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday for a chance at a Super Bowl appearance. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens destoyed the young Texans last week, while the Chiefs put together arguably their best performance of the season in a difficult victory out in Buffalo. Even though this was the ‘worst’ Chiefs season in a while, they still find themselves playing for a chance at the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City are simply inevitable. However, Baltimore has been a wrecking ball this season. In 2023, they finished first in points allowed and fourth in points scored. QB Lamar Jackson is almost certainly the MVP. Will he be able to lead the Ravens to Las Vegas?
Baltimore’s offense versus Kansas City’s defense is going to be a treat to watch. Kansas City gave up the second-least points this season (only behind Baltimore). It is particularly strong against the pass, allowing the third-least net yards per pass attempt. CBs Trent McDuffie and L’Jarious Sneed form a lethal combo, and CB Joshua Williams has also been lock-down this season. In five of its last six games, the Chiefs have held its opponent to under 200 passing yards (the only exception was Week 18, will starters resting), including matchups against the Bills and Dolphins. The Ravens are really good at passing the ball (fifth in net yards per pass attempt), but they will probably have to focus to the run game (KC allowed eighth-most yards per carry). Luckily for Ravens fans, this is something that Baltimore is extremely comfortable with. The Ravens ranked third in yards per carry, second in rushing touchdowns, first in rushing yards, and first in rushing attempts this regular season (while also finishing 30th in passing attempts). Lamar Jackson and RB Gus Edwards both logged over 800 rushing yards, and Lamar ranked first in yards per carry in the NFL in 2023. Jackson racked up another 100 yards on the ground in last week’s playoff matchup, while the Chiefs allowed 72 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns to QB Josh Allen in their matchup. Lamar Jackson is going to have to take over this game with his legs, and I think he will.
Switching sides, the Ravens have a very similar defense to the Chiefs. It also majors against the pass, allowed the very least net yards per pass attempt in 2023. Unlike the the Chiefs, this unit also gets interceptions (T-3rd). The Chiefs passing attack was good this year, finished fifth in net yards per attempt and sixth in passing yards. However, I worry about its chances this week against a phenomenal Ravens secondary, headlined by safeties Marcus Williams, Kyle Hamilton, and Geno Stone. The Chiefs should also find more efficiency on the ground, with the Ravens allowing the seventh-most yards per carry in 2023. Kansas City, however, doesn’t have quite the same running game to fall back onto. The Chiefs were middle-of-the-pack in most rushing stats, except for rushing touchdowns, where they finished sixth-worst (only nine). Baltimore allowed the very least rushing touchdowns this season (only six), so do not expect RB Isaiah Pacheco to find pay dirt.
One way that the Chiefs can keep themselves in this game is by limiting the Ravens pass rush. Baltimore finished first in sacks, but Kansas City took the second-least sacks. This is a major strength for both teams, so it’s notable if one side gains a weakness here.
In all, this is going to be a close game. The Ravens are unbelievable, but the Chiefs are experienced. For this reason, they will be able to keep it close until the end. Ultimately though, I think that this is Baltimore’s year. Lamar will have another big game on the ground and lead the Ravens to another Super Bowl appearance.
Score Prediction: Ravens 26 Chiefs 20
Player Predictions: Lamar Jackson 70+ rushing yards, Lamar Jackson rushing TD, Lamar Jackson under 200 passing yards, Patrick Mahomes INT, Harrison Butker 2+ FG, Chiefs 3+ sacks
Lions at 49ers
Sunday | 6:30 ET
Dam Campbell and the Detroit Lions will head to Santa Clara to take on the 49ers this Sunday with a chance at making history. A win would mean a trip to the Super Bowl, something that the Lions have never achieved as a franchise. Both offenses in this matchup are top-tier, but San Francisco has the advantage on the defensive side of things. Still, the Lions are on a cinderella run, and have a real chance at punching a ticket to Las Vegas for the Super Bowl.
The Lions offense versus the 49ers defense is the most intriguing matchup. Detroit finished fifth in points this season. It is extremely effective both through the air and on the ground, finishing fifth in yards per carry, tied-first in rushing touchdowns, third in net yards per pass attempt, second in passing yards, and fifth in passing touchdowns. QB Jared Goff is fantastic in good weather, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is a superstar, the RB tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery is the best in the NFL, and the offensive line is not far off of that mark either. The Lions take a sack on only 4.9% of their dropbacks (fifth-lowest in NFL). I can’t wait to see what this phenomenal offense can do against the daunting 49er defense.
San Fransisco is star-studded on both sides of the ball, defense included. LB Fred Warner ranked first out of 83 qualified linebackers in PFF grade this year, while edge rusher Nick Bosa ranked second out of 118 qualified edges in the same stat. The starting eleven only features two players that are not in the top 30% percentile in PFF grade among their respective position (many are even much better). PFF grades don’t mean everything, but the 49ers obviously have the hard stats that prove its talent. San Francisco finished fifth-best in net yards per pass attempt allowed, first in interceptions, and gave up the third-least rushing yards in 2023. Last week, this defense forced Jordan Love’s first (and second) interception since Week 14, and held him under 200 passing yards for the first time since Week 6. Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown can not be stopped, but they will certainly be slowed down by this great pass defense this week.
As long as Detroit doesn’t get down big early, I think that it will be able to find success on the ground. The 49ers were only slightly above average in terms of yards per carry allowed in 2023, while the Lions finished fifth in yards per carry and tied for first in rushing touchdowns.
Switching sides, the 49ers offense was the best in the league this year. San Francisco finished third in points, first in net yards per pass attempt, fourth in passing yards, second in passing touchdowns, fourth in yards per carry, third in rushing yards, and tied for first in rushing touchdowns. RB Christian McCaffrey is unbelievable, and TE George Kittle, WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, and LT Trent Williams are each among the best in their positions.
Now, Detroit’s defense is very good against the run. No running back has run for over 69 yards in a single game against the Lions this season. CMC has hit that mark in eight of his last nine games, so I’m interesting to see how it all shakes out this week. Either way, the 49ers won’t need to rely on the run. The Lions allowed the third-most net yards per pass attempt this year. In two playoff games, Detroit has allowed over 700 passing yards and five passing touchdowns. Mike Evans racked up 147 receiving yards last week, while Puka Nacua had 181 the week before. If Deebo is out this week, Brandon Aiyuk would be set to go off. If he’s good to go, it could be either receiver.
In all, I expect this to be a close game. The Lions offense will face some resistance, but I think that it’s good enough to break through, especially in the running game. On the other side of the ball, the 49ers may initially have issues running the ball. However, Aiyuk (and possibly Samuel) is going to have an absolute field day with Detroit’s cornerbacks. Once the 49ers get a lead, the running game could also open up. If Detroit gets an early lead, the 49ers could still climb back through the passing game, but San Francisco gets up early, I think it’s a wrap.