With the Wildcard Round in our rearview mirrors, let’s hope the Divisional Round brings some more competitive contests. Either way, there are going to be some very good teams that get eliminated this weekend. Here’s a deep-dive and in-depth look into several of this week’s most intriguing games.
Texans at Ravens
Saturday | 4:30 ET
Texans rookie QB sensation CJ Stroud will lead the Texans into Baltimore to take on likely-MVP Lamar Jackson and the daunting Ravens to kick off this round of the playoffs. Baltimore is fresh off of its bye week, and many of its key starters haven’t played in three weeks. Houston hosted the Browns last week, and won convincingly, 45-14. The two teams will collide on Saturday and hopefully give us an entertaining game.
When CJ Stroud is playing, this Texans offense is fantastic. Stroud had one of the best season that a rookie quarterback has ever had this season. He managed to drag his team (who picked 2nd in last year’s draft) to the playoffs, and put up 45 points in his first playoff game, leading his team to victory with 3 touchdowns, 274 passing yards, and no turnovers. WR Nico Collins had a 90-yard first half, TE Brevin Jordan too a simple drag route to the house, and Stroud took zero sacks. He is so good at making the right decision quickly. RB Devin Singletary also rushed for 5.1 yards per carry and scored a touchdown. Everything was clicking last week.
If any defense can rain on Houston’s parade, it’s Baltimore’s. The Ravens have stars everywhere you look on the defense. S Marcus Williams, S Kyle Hamilton, LB Roquan Smith, and DE Jadeveon Clowney are just a few. All but three starters rank at least within the top third of their respective positions on PFF, several of them much better. One of the exceptions is CB Marlon Humphrey, a three-time Pro-Bowler. The Ravens were the best team against the pass this year, giving up the least net yards per pass attempt. Baltimore has also allowed the second-least passing touchdowns in 2023. The defense also finished third in interceptions this year. Houston is the fifth-least efficient team on the ground, so a matchup against the best secondary in the NFL is not ideal. The thing is, they just destroyed the second-best secondary in the NFL last week, Cleveland. Can they do it two weeks in a row, this time on the road?
Switching sides, the Ravens offense is unbelievable. It finished the season fourth in points, fifth net yards per pass attempt, first in interceptions (lowest amount), third in yards per carry, and second in rushing touchdowns. Its quarterback is heavy-MVP favorite Lamar Jackson, who finished the season with over 800 rushing yards ranking first in yards per carry in the NFL (5.5). Now, Houston is very good against the run. The Texans gave up the second-least yards per carry this season (3.5), and held the Browns to only 2.8 y/c last week. Even if the Ravens are stifled in the run game, they should be able to move the ball through the air with relative ease. The Texans are a bottom-third team against the pass this year. Oddly enough though, they don’t allow many passing touchdowns (although they do allow a high amount of rushing touchdowns, despite good efficiency numbers). I expect that the Ravens will be able to move the ball through the air and punch it in through the running game.
This should be a fun game to watch, with studs on all four units. Ultimately, I can’t pick against the Ravens at home. CJ Stroud is really good, but he’ll have to score a lot of points against a very good defense to keep up with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.
Score Prediction: Ravens 33 Texans 24
Player Predictions: Gus Edwards TD (could be two), Lamar Jackson 226+ passing yards
Packers at 49ers
Saturday | 8:15 ET
Fresh off of a surprisingly dominant victory in Dallas, the Packers will head to Santa Clara on Saturday to take on the 49ers. Jordan Love and Green Bay looked fantastic last week so nothing is off of the table, even against the first-seed 49ers.
Packers QB Jordan Love has been nothing short of amazing this season. In his first season as a starter, he finished second in the NFL with 32 touchdown passes. He looks confident on the field and is aided by great offensive designs by head coach Matt LeFleur and a cast of talented young receivers surrounding himself. Over his last nine games, he’s thrown 21 touchdowns compared to only one interception, leading the team to a 7-2 record. Veteran running back Aaron Jones is also playing a massive role right now. He’s run for at least 110 yards in four straight contests, including a three-touchdown performance last week against the Cowboys. It seems like missing much of the season with an injury is actually working in Jones’ favor, as he is the only player on the field with fresh legs at this time of year.
The 49ers defense will face the tough task of slowing down Green Bay’s hot offense. This unit, one of the very best in the league, is up for the challenge. San Fransisco benefits from elite pass rushers, elite linebackers, and an elite cornerback. The Niners allowed the fourth-least net yards per pass attempt this season, and ranked third in PFF pass rush grade. Most notably, Joey Bosa ranked second out of 118 qualified edge rushers in PFF grade, and Fred Warner ranked first out of 83 qualified linebackers (third in run defense grade). Charvarious Ward is phenomenal at cornerback, and is a big reason for San Francisco’s success against the pass. The 49ers are first in interceptions this season, so it will be interesting to see if they get one from Love.
Though I expect Love to be generally hampered through the air, Aaron Jones could keep his impressive run going. The Niners are middle-of-the-pack against the run in terms of yards per carry, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a productive Aaron Jones on Sunday. Potentially, this could open up the passing game for Love. As long as Green Bay’s offensive line is able to hold up (they’ve allowed the third-least sacks in 2023), Jordan Love and the Packers could put some great drives together.
Switching sides, the 49ers averaged the most yards per play this season (6.6). This includes coming first in net yards per pass attempt and third in yards per carry. RB Christian McCaffrey finished first in all purpose yards (2,023), rushing yards (1,459), and non-passing touchdowns (21). This offense had four starters finish in the top-two of their respective position in overall PFF grade this season (LT Trent Williams, TE George Kittle, WR Brandon Aiyuk, and RB Christian McCaffrey). QB Brock Purdy finished just behind Jordan Love in passing touchdowns with 31. The Packers defense shouldn’t provide much resistance against this passing attack. With the exception of CB Jaire Alexander, the secondary is not good. It gave up the 12th-most net yards per pass attempt this year. Against the run, the Packers gave up the tenth-most yards per carry and fifth-most yards. There is no reason not to expect yet another huge game out of Christian McCaffrey and Brock Purdy. Even in last week’s win, the Packers gave up 4.9 yards per carry and 400 passing yards.
In all, this is going to be a lot closer than some may think. The Niners are obviously going to feast upon the Green Bay defense, but I think that the Packers may give San Francisco a taste of its own medicine for a little while. I’m expecting a shootout early, with the 49ers eventually taking over.
Score Prediction: 49ers 36 Packers 27
Player Predictions: Aaron Jones 80+ rushing yards, George Kittle 65+ receiving yards, George Kittle TD, Christian McCaffrey TD, Brock Purdy 2+ TDs, Christian McCaffrey 131+ all purpose yards
Buccaneers at Lions
Sunday | 3:00 ET
The Lions get to host another playoff game on Sunday as the Bucs head to Detroit. Tampa Bay is coming off of a dominant win in Philadelphia against the reeling Eagles. They’ve won six of their last seven games. Meanwhile, the vibes have never been higher in Detroit. Ticket prices for this game have reached record levels, and the Lions are looking to build off an an emotional victory last week.
This is going to be an offensive game. The Lions have one of the best in the league, finishing fifth in points, third in net yards per pass attempt, and fifth in yards per carry. Detroit is also tied for first in rushing touchdowns and fifth in passing touchdowns. A phenomenal offensive line headed by C Frank Ragnow and RT Penei Sewell enables QB Jared Goff to have have ample time to makes reads downfield, as well as it allows the fantastic running back duo or David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to be their best selves. Now, they will face off against a solid Tampa defense on Sunday. The Bucs gave up the seventh-least points in 2023, but also allowed the fourth-most passing yards. The unit is good against the run (eighth-lowest yards per carry), but can give up big numbers in the passing game. Detroit has a versatile offense that can move the ball in a multitude of different ways. I expect Goff to have a good day throwing the ball. Just don’t expect many long touchdown passes with star safety Antoine Winfield Jr. surveying the secondary.
On the other side of the ball, the Lions defense has had its fair share of issues. It allowed the tenth-most points in 2023, the fourth-most net yards per pass attempt, and sixth-most passing touchdowns. Tampa will focusing on exploiting this, as Detroit is very good against the run (third-lowest yards per carry allowed). The Buccaneers will be forced to hammer the passing game, but this is something that they are comfortable with. The Bucs finished 2023 dead last in both rushing yards and yards per carry. Baker Mayfield has thrown for 300+ yards in three of his last five games, and he’ll certainly have a chance to reach that marker again this week. The Buccaneers will live and die by Baker’s ability to get the ball into WR Mike Evans and Chris Godwin’s hands.
Overall, both defenses will probably struggle a bit on Sunday afternoon in the pass game. Both offenses will be “bombs away” which makes me think that Tampa Bay may have a better than than most may think. Baker has a lot of weapons and has put together some big games this year. Still, I’ll side with the Lions. Their offense is still better than Tampa’s, and it will find a way to outscore the Buccaneers’. I also expect home field advantage to play a large role in this game.
Score Prediction: Lions 26 Buccaneers 23
Player Predictions: Jared Goff 2+ TDs, Amon-Ra St. Brown TD, Baker Mayfield 280+ yards
Chiefs at Bills
Sunday | 6:30 ET
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will be faced with a rare road playoff game this week in Buffalo. Kansas City won a freezing cold game against the Dolphins last week to advance, while Josh Allen led the Bills to a dominating win over the Steelers. Allen was incredible, using both his arm and legs to rack up 277 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns. Over in Kansas City, the Chiefs defense held the Dolphins in check, and WR Rashee Rice along with RB Isaiah Pacheco had impressive offensive performances.
The Bills offense versus the Chiefs defense is the most interesting matchup to me. The Bills finished eighth in yards per carry and fourth in net yards per pass attempt in 2023. QB Josh Allen was one of the best players in the league over the course of the entire season, and he is playing at a very high level right now. He’ll face off against a Chiefs defense that allowed the second-least total points this regular season. It gave up the third-least net yards per pass attempt and fifth-least passing touchdowns. CBs La’Jarious Sneed and Trent McDuffie make it very hard to pass against the Chiefs. This makes Sunday’s matchup very interesting because both units’ strengths are in the passing game. Kansas City is not as good against the run, allowing the eighth-most yards per carry this year (4.5). The Bills were efficient on the ground last week, averaging 5.3 yards per carry (including 9.3 yards per carry for Josh Allen). It seems that even if Buffalo’s passing game gets shut down, the Bills will have a chance to get yardage via the rushing attack.
It will also be interesting to see which offensive or defensive line prevails. The Chiefs are second in both sacks (57) and pressure percentage this year, while Josh Allen and the Bills have taken the least sacks (only 24). Whoever loses their strength in the trenches will be at a massive disadvantage, losing a major strength that they are used to having.
Switching sides, we have Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense against the Bills’ impressive defense. Buffalo hasn’t allowed more than 22 points in a game since Week 12, including a 20-17 victory over Kansas City. It’s given up the sixth-least net yards per pass attempt this year, second-least passing touchdowns and accounted for the fourth-most sacks. Second-year CB Christian Benford is having a breakout season and LB Tyrel Dodson has been the third-best linebacker in football this year according to PFF. On the other hand, the Chiefs have not been special on offense this year. Kansas City finished 2023 13th in net yards per pass attempt and 12th in yards per carry. Last week, however, they managed 26 points in horrible conditions. They were forced to settle for four field goals.
Through the air, I expect the Chiefs to have trouble. However, they may be able break through on the ground. The running game has been hit and miss this year, but RB Isaiah Pacheco has grabbed 89+ rushing yards in three of his last five games, adding in five touchdowns as well. Buffalo allowed the fifth-most yards per carry this season (4.6) and surrendered 106 yards on 23 carries (exactly 4.6 yards per carry) to a below-average Steelers rushing attack last week. Importantly, the Bills still won handily despite Pittsburgh’s rushing efficiency.
This game is tough to flesh out. Both teams could struggle through the air, forcing them to the resort to the run. However, in Week 14’s meeting between these two teams, both continued airing it out, despite decent successes on the ground. Both QBs went over 42 pass attempts. If that happens again, we’ll have another low scoring game on our hands. Either way, I do expect a defensive battle. Take the under and give me Bills at home.