With the 2023 regular season coming to a close, it’s finally playoff time! Wildcard weekend is bound to be a good time with three days worth of playoff football. Here’s a deep-dive and in-depth look into several of this week’s most intriguing games.
Browns at Texans
Saturday | 4:30 ET
Before the season, this would’ve looked like a typo. Sure, the Browns had some positivity surrounding the team, but with QB DeShaun Watson only suiting up for five games, no one would’ve blamed Cleveland for collapsing. But alas, their elite defense and the emergence of 38-year-old Joe Flacco has pitted the Browns in the first round of the playoffs against the Houston Texans. After finishing with the second-worst record in the NFL last season, rookie QB sensation CJ Stroud has led Houston to host a playoff game at home in his first NFL season. He led the Texans to a huge win last week, on the road in Indianapolis in what was an ipso facto playoff game. The way that both the Browns and Texans have gotten themselves into this position is extremely impressive, and it’s a shame that one of them will be eliminated.
The marquee matchup on Saturday is CJ Stroud and the Texans offense against Myles Garrett and the Browns defense. Cleveland is very, very good in all aspects of defensive play. They’ve allowed the second-least net yards per pass attempt and the second-least yards per carry this season (which combines for the lowest yards per play allowed). Cleveland is also tied for third in takeaways, 11th in sacks, and first in PFF pash rush grade. It is filled with elite defenders including DE Myles Garrett (14 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 1st in PFF grade among edge rushers), LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koamoah (4th in tackles for loss), CB Greg Newsome (T-8th in passes defended), and CB Martin Emerson Jr. (T-8th in passes defended, T-7th in interceptions).
While the Texans will clearly face a tough challenge, they are a tough challenge themselves. CJ Stroud is first in passing yards per game. On top of that, he also has the lowest pass interception percentage in the NFL (1%). He and WR Nico Collins have a great rapport, and TE Dalton Schultz provides another good target. However, though great in all aspects, the Browns defense thrives against the pass. It’s given up the least passing yards in the NFL. This is very concerning for the Texans, a team that is significantly more successful passing the ball than running it. In addition to ranking 28th in yards per carry compared to ninth in net yards per pass attempt, Houston has only ten rushing touchdowns on the year compared to 27 through the air.
If Stroud gets shut down by Cleveland’s suffocating secondary, it’s a wrap. Texans RB Devin Singletary is averaging only 62.3 rushing yards over his last three games, including a 44 yard performance against the Browns. Singletary does seem to randomly blow up every few weeks, however. If this is one of those weeks, the Texans will have a chance to put up some points. However, I don’t see Houston doing much on offense if they can’t do anything on the ground.
On the other side of the ball, we find the miraculous story of Joe Flacco. In five games as Cleveland’s fourth-string QB signing off of the street, the former Super Bowl champion has averaged 323 passing yards per game and led the Browns to a 4-1 record. He’s thrown 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He’s thrown a pick in every game he’s played in, but that’s what you’re going to get with 42+ pass attempts an all but one of his starts. The Texans secondary is not good. It does have good players in Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley Jr., but it allows the ninth-most net yards per pass attempt and has surrendered the sixth-most passing yards. Oddly enough, Houston has also allowed the least passing touchdowns this season (17, even less than the Browns at 20). Still, I think that Joe Flacco, Amari Cooper, and David Njoku could tear apart the Texans defense. Though the Browns are now a pass-heavy offense, they don’t have trouble punching it in with their running backs (they had two rushing touchdowns against Houston in Week 16).
In all, I see Joe Flacco leading the Browns into the Divisional Round. Neither team will be able to run the ball, so this will come down to the quarterbacks. Although both quarterbacks are playing very well, the Browns secondary is simply so much better than the Texans’. I wouldn’t be too surprised if Stroud pulled some magic on Saturday (especially considering that Cleveland’s defense has played a lot worse on the road this season), but I think that Joe Flacco and the Browns will prove too difficult to keep up with.
Score Prediction: Browns 33 Texans 28
Player Predictions: Jerome Ford TD, David Njoku TD, Joe Flacco 300+ yards
Dolphins at Chiefs
Saturday | 8:00 ET
The Miami Dolphins will limp into the frigid confines of Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the first round of the playoffs on Saturday. While “Dolphins-Chiefs” may sound like a barnburner, this is going to be a low-scoring affair. The Chiefs never found their footing offensively this season, so I wouldn’t expect much to change now. The Dolphins offense has been dealing with injuries to every key skill position player (Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, Devon Achane) besides the quarterback. They’ll be challenged with a rock solid Kansas City defense. To me, the main story of this game is Miami’s injuries. With Hill banged up, Waddle and Mostert’s availability up in the air, and without Jaelan Phillips, Jerome Baker, Andrew Van Ginkel, Bradley Chubb, and more on defense, the Dolphins are going to have to overcome a lot to win on the road this week.
When the Dolphins have the ball, we used to expect explosiveness. However, WR Tyreek Hill, who provided the majority of it, was injured a few weeks back and is clearly not playing at 100%. Over his last two games, he’s put up 158 receiving yards. There were five times this season in which he put up at least 157 yards in a single game. While averaging 29 points per game over the course of the season, the Dolphins averaged 18.3 points over their last three games, all against playoff teams. This week’s opponent, the Chiefs, have just as good of a defense (if not, better) as Miami’s recent opponents. Kansas City hasn’t given up more than 20 points since Week 13.
The one thing that Miami’s offense has going for itself is the run game. It is first in the NFL in terms of yards per carry, though it plateaued in the final quarter of the season. Still, the Chiefs are very good against the pass, but give up the seventh-most yards per carry. With Tua’s passing game shut down by the conditions and stout Chiefs secondary, Miami will live and die on Mostert and Achan’s ability to get yards on the ground. Based on the past few weeks (and Mostert’s questionable status) I wouldn’t count on it.
On the other side of the ball, the surprisingly underwhelming Chiefs offense will face the heavily beaten-down Dolphins defense. Luckily for Vic Fangio and Miami, the defensive group is so star-studded that there are still talented players healthy. Safety Jevon Hollard, cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard, defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, and linebacker David Long Jr. are all top-of-the-line starters that are good to go for the Wildcard Round. Specifically, there are still some run-stoppers manning this defense. The Dolphins gave up the eighth-least yards per carry and sixth-least rushing yards in 2023. This strength may keep them in this game.
One thing that I worry about with the Dolphins is the pass rush. Throughout the season, it was the strength of the defense. Miami was finished first in QB knockdown percentage this season and third in pressure percentage. However, I don’t think that this will continue into the playoffs. The Dolphins have backups in at both edge positions (down Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips). Losing Andrew Van Ginkel, who was hurt only last week, is also a massive blow the pass rush. Van Kinkel had a 90.6 PFF pass rush grade this season (which is elite) and racked up eight sacks. To make matters even worse, Patrick Mahomes doesn’t take sacks. The Chiefs are second in sack percentage and sacks taken. With a clean pocket, Mahomes will have ample time to wait for routes to develop. Whether or not his poor wide receiver group will be able to get open remains to be revealed.
Overall, I’m afraid that this could be a pretty ugly game. I think that both teams will struggle to score. But in the end, Miami’s injuries will prove too difficult to overcome.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 24 Dolphins 20
Player Predictions: Tua Tagovailoa under 240 passing yards, Travis Kelce 50+ yards and a TD, Rashee Rice 80+ yards
Rams at Lions
Sunday | 8:00 ET
The NFL script writers really hit the nail on the head on this one. The Matthew Stafford-led LA Rams will head to Detroit to take on the Jared Goff-led Lions to cap off Sunday night. The contest will mark Detroit’s first home playoff game since 1994. Ford Field is going to be an absolute madhouse, and I honestly expect the crowd to make a bit of a difference in the game. LA comes in on a four-game winning streak, although three of these wins were one-score victories over non-playoff teams (Saints, Commanders, Giants) and the other was a game of backups against the 49ers in Week 18. Nonetheless, they’ve been getting it done, thanks to the impressive play of QB Matt Stafford, RB Kyren Williams, and WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. The Lions’ play deteriorated towards the end of the season, and the team most likely will be without star rookie TE Sam LaPorta this week. Still, Detroit played a tight game at Dallas a few weeks ago, and will be amped up for this massive playoff game.
This game is going be a ‘defense-optional’ shootout. The offenses are fifth and eighth, respectively in points for, while the defenses are 23th and 19th in points allowed. Starting with Detroit, its offense has been one of the most efficient in the NFL. The Lions were third in net yards per pass attempt and fifth in yards per carry this season. It’s always very dangerous when a team can beat you on the ground (with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs) or through the air (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta). Detroit is tied for first in rushing touchdowns (27), and fifth in passing touchdowns (30). Importantly, Sam LaPorta- who accounted for ten of these passing touchdowns– will most likely not play. We’ve yet to see what this offense looks like without him, but he is certainly a key cog.
In terms of efficiency, the Rams defense is average both against the run and the pass. It’s 30th in takeaways and 24th in sacks, so Detroit won’t have to worry on those fronts. One thing that LA’s defense has done great job of is limiting rushing touchdowns. It’s given up only 12 rushing TDs compared to 23 passing TDs. Without LaPorta, the Lions will lose their go-to guy in the endzone. If LA can turn usual-touchdowns drives into field goals, that could be a recipe for success.
Flipping sides, the Rams offense ranks seventh in net yards per pass attempt and ninth in yards per carry. It gets the majority of its touchdowns through the air. Rookie WR Puka Nacua grabbed six of them this year, in addition to breaking both the single-season reception and receiving yard rookie records. Second-year RB Kyren Williams also had a phenomenal year. Despite missing five games with injury, he racked up 1,144 rushing yards (third in NFL) and 15 total touchdowns.
Everything gets tied together by veteran QB Matt Stafford and head coach Sean McVay. McVay has done a fantastic job with this young team and has taylored the offense to Stafford’s strengths. Stafford still is going strong and makes insane throws every week. He’ll shine this week against a Detroit defense that gave up the fifth-most net yards per pass attempt this year and the seventh-most passing touchdowns. The Lions have a major issue at cornerback and I have on doubt that McVay will figure out how to exploit this with Kupp and Nacua.
The struggles will come in the running game. Detroit is very good in run defense, having allowed the third-least yards per carry this year. The Rams are a different team with Kyren Willams healthy. When healthy, the Rams were 8-4 this season; they were 2-3 without him. He went over 100 rushing yards in half of his games (6/12). The balance he creates in LA’s offense is vital. In 7/9 Rams wins (not counting Week 18 in which starters rested), Kyren Williams rushed for 88+ yards. Meanwhile, Detroit never allowed 88 rushing yards to a running back this season. The only player to hit that mark was Bears QB Justin Fields (104) in Week 11. Vikings RB Ty Chandler came the closest just last week with 69 rushing yards. In games where Kyren Williams was active and rushed for less than 69 yards, the Rams were 1-3. Simply put: the Rams rely upon good yardage on the ground from Kyren Williams. The Detroit Lions simply do not give up big (or even solid) days on the ground. Stafford will probably have to do all the work in Sunday.
In all, this should be a very entertaining football game. Detroit’s offense will be dampered by LaPorta’s injury, but the phenomenal offensive line combined with the running back and Amon-Ra will be able to do some damage against the Rams. LA will be able to create some fireworks through the air, but I don’t expect Kyren Williams to do much on the ground. Since this seems to be a key ingredient in LA’s winning recipe, I’ll take Detroit to come away with its first playoff win since the 1991 season.
Score Prediction: Lions 33 Rams 27
Player Predictions: Cooper Kupp TD, Amon-Ra St. Brown TD, Matt Stafford 280+ passing yards, Kyren Williams under 82 rushing yards
Packers at Cowboys
Sunday | 4:30 ET
This just feels like a classic NFC playoff matchup. The Green Bay Packers, led by rookie QB phenom Jordan Love and his ensemble of young, solid receivers the Packers somehow squeaked into the playoffs and will head to Dallas to take on America’s Team in Super Wildcard Weekend. The Cowboys finished the season at 12-5. The narrative that they can’t beat good teams generally does ring true, but only on the road. While Dallas lost away games to the Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, and 49ers this season, they also took care of business the two times that they hosted elite team (Lions, Eagles). We’ll see if that rings true on Sunday.
The Cowboys scored the most points in the NFL this year (509). QB Dak Prescott had a NFL-caliber season, finishing first in touchdown passes and third in passing yards. He enabled WR CeeDee Lamb to realize his full potential. Lamb put up 1749 receiving yards (second in NFL) and 12 touchdowns (second in NFL) on 135 catches (first in NFL). He will be Green Bay’s first order of business on defense. CeeDee primarily works out of the slot. Green Bay’s nickel cornerback Keisean Nixon has a below-average PFF coverage grade, which tilts things in Lamb’s favor. They only way that the Packers could hope to slow CeeDee down is to bracket him, which will only create more opportunities for WR Brandin Cooks and TE Jake Ferguson, both of which have established themselves as viable pass catchers in this offense. The Packers finished about average in most pass defense stats in 2023 (passing touchdowns, net yards per pass attempt, passing yards) but average doesn’t cut it against the Cowboys passing attack this year.
On the ground, the Cowboys have surprisingly been a bit below average this year. While the Packers allowed the fifth-most rushing yards this season, they held a very efficient rushing team in the Bears to only 75 yards on 25 carries last week (only 3.0 yards per carry). I don’t think Tony Pollard will have a big day in the running game.
Flipping sides, the Packers offense has really come on in the second half of the season. After a slow start, Jordan Love managed to put up 32 passing touchdowns (second in NFL) and over 4,000 passing yards. He had a fantastic season, especially considering his receiving core. WR Christian Watson was expected to take a big step this year, but missed much of the season due to injury. 2023 second-round-pick Jayden Reed led the team in receiving yards, followed by second-year WR Romeo Doubs, and then 2023 fifth-round-pick Dontayvion Wicks. The fact that the offense is running so smoothly reflects very well on both heach coach Matt LeFleur and Jordan Love. Though Dallas is solid in coverage this year, I still have confidence in Green Bay’s passing attack. Dallas ranks seventh in PFF coverage grade, allows the eighth-least net yards per pass attempt, and the fifth-least passing yards per game. CB Daron Bland had a phenomenal season, and veteran Stefon Gilmore held it down on the other side of the field. However, it’s not like Green Bay has one or even two main pass catchers. They have a group of several players who have chemistry with Love and have shown ability to get open.
In the running game, Aaron Jones should have a good chance at an efficient day. The Cowboys are average against the run, while the Packers rank 12th in yards per carry. Jones has rushed for 110+ yards in each of his past three games, and will look to keep up this streak running. If the Packers can manage to dominate the running game on both sides of the ball, they will give themselves a solid chance of winning this game.
In all, I expect a high scoring battle this Sunday in Dallas. Green Bay has run the ball very well recently, and the passing game is going so well that a stingy Cowboys secondary will only slow it down to a certain extent. However, Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb could simply tear apart Green Bay’s defense. Dallas plays like a different team at home, and it’s tough to pick against them in a situation like this.