Week 11 is already here. This week features several games that already have playoff implications. Here is an AFC North-heavy compilation of my thoughts regarding the week’s most interesting games, along with helpful stats and what to watch for this weekend! Each matchup has a score prediction with reasoning. Skip to the end to learn about the most intriguing game this weekend.
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Steelers at Browns
Sunday | 1:00 ET
It feels like we get a great AFC North matchup every week now, and Week 11 is no exception. In fact, we get two greats ones this week! Both the Steelers and Browns come into this one at 6-3. They are similar teams in that they both heavily lean on their defense. With starting Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson now out for the year, Cleveland could struggle mightily on offense to finish out 2023. As for Pittsburgh, offensive coordinator Matt Canada’s offense has drastically underperformed. QB Kenny Pickett has only thrown six touchdowns compared to four interceptions, and the offense ranks 30th in the NFL in total yards. Still, both team’s defenses have been good enough to put themselves in the playoff picture, so this game does have major post-season implications.
With backup QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center, the Browns will have a tough time against a ferocious Steelers defense. Pittsburgh’s unit passes the eye test with flying colors. Edge rushers TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith are both fantastic. Watt ranks third in the NFL with 10.5 sacks. The Steelers have only given up more than 22 points twice, out of nine games this season. The defense is tied for first in the league in takeaways with 18. It is the reason that the Steelers are 6-3.
However, the yardage stats are mind-blowing. Somehow, Pittsburgh has managed to give up the eighth most total yards in the NFL so far, as well as the sixth highest yards per play allowed. The offense has the third lowest average drive time, so the Steelers defense has had to play more than almost any other defense in the NFL. Still, these numbers are surprising. Either way, the unit is certainly dangerous enough to give DTR trouble. The Browns have been extremely run-heavy in 2023, and this will certainly not change with Watson out. Cleveland is third in the NFL in rushing yards. RBs Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt will both see a lot of work on Sunday. This works to Cleveland’s advantage in multiple ways. Running the ball will limit Pittsburgh’s opportunities to create sacks and interceptions, the two factors it runs on. For this reason, I don’t expect the Steelers defense to completely dominate the Browns.
On the other side of the ball, the situation is similar. The Steelers offense is awful, ranking 30th in total yards. The passing game is the main issue. The team comes in with the sixth lowest net yards per pass attempt. Kenny Pickett and co. will be lined up across Myles Garrett and Cleveland’s terrifying defensive group. Garrett is first in sacks and fumbles forced in 2023. He is arguably the best defensive player in the NFL and is surrounded by several other top-level defenders. Linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is third in the NFL in tackles for loss, and the secondary is loaded with talent. Safety Grant Delpit (eighth in PFF coverage grade among safeties) and CBs Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome II headline a group that has allowed the least passing yards in the NFL this season. I don’t see a way that the Steelers offense gets anything going on Sunday.
In all, I expect both offenses to struggle greatly. In Pittsburgh’s favor, it has won all year with little to no production from its offense. Still, I lean towards Cleveland in this matchup. I think that its offense will be able to scrape up at least one touchdown and couple field goals; throw in a late pick-six and things will be looking good. The defense will dominate Kenny Pickett. The Steelers lose a close game in the Dawg Pound.
Score Prediction: Browns 22 Steelers 16
Bengals at Ravens
Thursday | 8:15 ET
Last week, the NFL saw a record-high amount of last second game-winning field goals (5). Two of the unfortunate victims of the wild week will face off on Thursday Night Football. Both teams had four game winning streaks broken by a last-second field goal. The Bengals, who seemed to be back on track, come into this matchup sitting in last place in the AFC North after a tough loss to the surging Houston Texans. Things don’t get much easier for Cincinnati, as they’ll head to Baltimore to face an angry Ravens team. The Ravens were up 24-9 last week against the Browns, but managed to let the game slip away. Both teams are explosive and very entertaining. Thursday Night should present an AFC North classic.
The Bengals offense, even without wide receiver Tee Higgins and a hobbled Ja’Marr Chase, stayed hot last week. Chase was clearly not 100%, but still put up 124 yards and a touchdown on five catches. He’ll only be more healthy by the time Thursday comes around, but Higgins is not expected to play.
Burrow will face a tough challenge in the Ravens secondary. Baltimore has allowed the least passing touchdowns in the NFL this year. 14 of the Bengals’ 18 touchdowns in 2023 have come through the air. Ravens safety Geno Stone has been a revelation this year, ranking first in PFF coverage grade among safeties. S Kyle Hamilton also showed how dynamic he is in Week 10 with a pick-six on the opening drive of the game. CB Marlon Humphrey is having yet another good season, and will probably be locked onto Ja’Marr Chase. This will be a big matchup to watch for. If Chase is kept quiet, the Bengals will be in trouble.
It should also be noted that the Ravens are first in sacks this season by a wide margin (39, next closest is 33). Justin Madubuike already has 8.5. He’ll see a lot of guards Alex Cappa and Cordell Volson on Thursday Night, who rank 55th and 73rd in PFF pass block grade among 77 qualified guards, respectively. Madubuike has a good chance to put his stamp on this game.
Switching sides, I see the Ravens with a glaring advantage. As discussed in previous iterations of this article, Baltimore’s offense can do anything. It can move the ball and score in any way, whether it be through the wide receivers, the tight end, on the ground, or with the quarterback’s legs. However, its greatest strength is its rushing attack.
The Ravens have logged the most carries in the NFL, the most rushing touchdowns, the most yards by a wide margin, and are second in yards per carry. They run often and are very efficient at it. A great offensive line, headlined by center Tyler Linderbaum, along with the threat of quarterback Lamar Jackson keeping the ball, is what makes this possible.
Meanwhile, the Bengals’ defensive weakness is, you guessed it: stopping the run. They are allowing the second highest yards per carry in the NFL (5.0). The team has given up the 7th-most rushing yards despite only facing the 21st-most carries. Just last week, Cincinnati allowed 150 rushing yards to the Texans’ backup running back, Devin Singletary. Baltimore is going to run all over this defense with RBs Gus Edwards and hot rookie Keaton Mitchell.
The Bengals have aggressive cornerbacks which may give the Ravens receivers some trouble, but I’m afraid it won’t play much of a factor.
This is a bad matchup for the Bengals. Though I’m hoping for a good game, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ravens ran away with it. I expect big numbers on the ground for them, and Joe Burrow to struggle on the road with receiver injuries against a phenomenal secondary.
Score Prediction: Ravens 31 Bengals 23
Game of the Week
Eagles at Chiefs
Monday | 8:15 ET
NFL fans will be treated to a Super Bowl rematch on Monday Night Football this week. No Super Bowl hangover has been present as the Chiefs come at 7-2, the Eagles 8-1. For Philadelphia, this matchup comes marks the beginning of a brutal stretch of games (Kansas City is followed up by Buffalo, San Fransisco, Dallas, and Seattle). The Eagles will look to avenge their Super Bowl LVII loss.
The matchup I’m the most excited for is the Eagles offense versus the Chiefs defense. Philly has been riding on the coattails of wide receiver AJ Brown, whose streak of six straight 125+ receiving yard games finally came to an end last week. He’s already over 1000 yards on the season. Brown will be seeing a lot of cornerbacks Jaylen Watson and L’Jarious Sneed in Week 11, which could bode well for him. Both CBs rank in the bottom quarter of the NFL in PFF coverage grade.
However, the Kansas City defense as a whole has been phenomenal. It has allowed the least amount of points in the NFL this season. Despite giving up the sixth highest yards per carry, the unit has allowed the least rushing touchdowns in the league (3). The group excels against the pass. It has given up the fourth-least passing yards and the second-lowest net yards per pass attempt in the NFL this year.
The Eagles rank in the top-10 in both rushing and passing yards, so they are balanced. However, the are more efficient in the passing game, coming in at 8th in net yards per pass attempt and 19th in yards per carry. The Eagles will probably be inclined to lean on running back D’Andre Swift, who has not been running well lately (last four games: 2.4 Y/C, 3.6 Y/C, 4.1 Y/C, 1.8 Y/C, only one touchdown).
Also, the Chiefs haven’t been creating a lot of pressure, so I wouldn’t expect any this week against the amazing Philadelphia offensive line.
Switching sides, the Chiefs offense hasn’t been the machine that fans have grown accustomed to this year, but they’ve gotten the job done. With such a strong defense behind it, the offense hasn’t needed to score much. Still, the unit comes in at 7th in net yards per pass attempt, 7th in passing yards, and 7th in passing touchdowns. The running game with Isaiah Pacheco has been average. Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes. He’s thrown for 2,442 yards, 17 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He’ll face off against a great Eagles defense.
The Eagles rank first in QB pressures this year and fifth in sacks. The pass rush is something to be worried about. Philly has also given up the fourth-lowest yards per carry this season. They’ll easily be able to shut down Kansas City’s shaky rushing attack. However, they’ve given up the 7th most passing yards this season. Even with unreliable wide receivers, Patrick Mahomes should be able to exploit the Philadelphia secondary.
In the end, the Chiefs win this game. Their defense has been so good this year, especially against the pass. There is always a chance that AJ Brown has a monster game, but I think that the Kansas City secondary will contain him (for the most part). Mahomes will be able to move the ball through the air and ride his home-field advantage into another win over the Eagles.