After three Thursday games and another one on Friday, eight teams have already played this week. With every team in action this week, there’s still plenty of action left to unfold on Sunday. Here is a compilation of my thoughts regarding the week’s most interesting games, along with helpful stats and what to watch for this weekend! Each matchup has a score prediction with reasoning. Skip to the end to learn about the most intriguing game this weekend.
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Bills at Eagles
Sunday | 4:25 ET
The Bills will head to Philadelphia to take on the 9-1 Eagles in a high-octane Sunday matchup. Philly is coming in off of two massive wins against the Cowboys and Chiefs. They’re in the middle of a gauntlet of matchups, and have shown no signs of slipping up. Meanwhile, the Bills have had some troubles. After firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, Buffalo dismantled the defensive-minded Jets, 32-6. A loss to the Eagles this week would put the team at 6-6, and in danger of falling out of the last AFC wildcard spot.
By most statistics, the Bills have a top-flight NFL offense. They are third in yards per play, second in total yards, and fourth in total points. Many believe OC Ken Dorsey didn’t deserve to be fired, but the Bills needed a changeup and a scapegoat. The Bills have been great at moving the ball up until a certain point; they always seem to stall out just before hitting field goal range. Josh Allen is having a very good year. Rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid is also really coming on.
The Eagles defense is pretty tough. Rookie defensive tackle Jalen Carter has been phenomenal. He ranks second in PFF grade out of 125 qualified DTs. He has been the catalyst for a defensive line that is second in the NFL in QB pressures. The pass rush is the strength of defense. If Josh Allen has some time in the pocket, he should be able to exploit the Eagles secondary. Interestingly enough, the Josh Allen has only been sacked 12 times all year, which is second-least in the NFL. Philly has given up the eighth-most passing yards in 2023. They are most susceptible to the deep pass, which is what Josh Allen and star wide receiver Stefon Diggs thrive upon. Buffalo is tied for first in the NFL in passing touchdowns. I think the Bills offense could put up big numbers.
Switching sides, the Eagles offense is also pretty efficient. It is fifth in yards per play this year and sixth in PFF offensive grade. The offensive line is the best in the league, and it enables the rest of the offense to thrive. QB Jalen Hurts’ legs are just as much of a threat as his arm is. WR AJ Brown is has been one of the best receivers in the league this season. He should see a lot of CB Rasul Douglas this week, who is third in PFF coverage grade among 114 qualified CBs.
It will be interesting to see what the Bills pass rush can do against the Eagles offensive line. Buffalo is second in the NFL with 39 sacks. However, the Bills struggle in stopping the run. Though the defense is strong against the pass, the group gives up the fifth-most yards per carry this season. Expect to see a lot of RB D’Andre Swift for the Eagles. Philadelphia has shown that is has no problem with pounding the rock with Swift if that is what the defense gives it. The Eagles have shown the ability to score in a plethora of different ways, so expect them to solve the Bills defense to a certain extent.
In all, I think that this is a good matchup for the Bills. Josh Allen lives and dies on the deep pass, and that is where the Eagles struggle. I have the Bills stealing the upset win in a tight game.
Score Prediction: Bills 31 Eagles 28
49ers at Seahawks
Thursday | 8:20 ET
Thanksgiving’s nightcap should be a fun one as the 49ers will head to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. San Fransisco is back. They have responded to a three-game losing streak with two emphatic victories. Quarterback Brock Purdy is cooking and his playmakers are performing at a high level. Seattle will come in after a tough loss to the Rams. Kicker Jason Meyers missed a potential game-winning 55 yard field goal attempt as time expired. Running back Kenneth Walker III sustained an oblique injury in the contest. Though it doesn’t seem serious, he will probably not be healthy in time for this matchup.
When the 49ers have the ball, they are one of the most efficient teams in football. The offense is second in yards per play and first in net yards per pass attempt. QB Brock Purdy is more than a game manager. He is able to make tough passes downfield now. WR Brandon Aiyuk had a massive game last week recording 156 receiving yards and a touchdown. RB Christian McCaffrey also grabbed another touchdown, perhaps starting a new streak. Luckily for Seattle, their defense is no slouch. Led by veteran linebacker Bobby Wagner (3rd in PFF grade among 80 qualified linebackers) the unit allows the 10th lowest net yards per pass attempt. The unit is average against the run. I could see 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan eating up the Seahawks on the ground. McCaffrey is one of the best runners in the game. He should be able to produce at a high level against a middle-of-the-pack Seattle run defense.
Switching sides, the Seahawks have a fun offense as well. They rank 10th in overall offensive PFF grade. Both quarterback Geno Smith and running back Kenneth Walker III were injured in last week’s contest. Smith should play on Thanksgiving, but rookie Zach Charbonnet will probably be the lead back. Luckily for Seattle, the passing game with wide receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett is the way that they Seahawks gain most of their yards. However, San Francisco’s defense will prove difficult to score against. It allows the sixth least net yards per pass attempt. The pass rush is also daunting; the 49ers rank second in PFF pass rush grade. Edge rusher Joey Bosa ranks first in PFF grade out of 105 qualified edges. He’ll give the banged-up Seahawks offensive line some issues.
In all, the 49ers have the clear edge on paper. I see them winning easily. The Seahawks home field advantage could make things a bit more interesting than they would be otherwise, but San Fransisco will win behind a big effort from Christian McCaffrey.
Score Prediction: 49ers 31 Seahawks 24
Game of the Week
Jaguars at Texans
Sunday | 1:00 ET
The Jags will visit the Texans in Houston on Sunday in a game that is integral in determining the AFC South divisional champion. Jacksonville comes in at 7-3, Houston at 6-4. The Texans crushed the Jaguars in Week 3 in rookie wide receiver Tank Dell’s breakout game. Jacksonville could take a commanding lead in the division with a win. Texans rookie sensation quarterback CJ Stroud will look for the season sweep, which would put the Texans in prime position to take the South.
2nd overall draft pick CJ Stroud has been unbelievable this season. Only ten games into his NFL career, he is second in the NFL in passing yards, first in passing yards per game, and tied for tenth in passing touchdowns (with Patrick Mahomes). In Week 10 he went head-to-head with Joe Burrow and was able to out-duel him in a shootout, winning the game 30-27. He is on pace to put together arguably the most impressive season a rookie quarterback has ever had.
Surrounding Stroud is a mixture of solid veterans and young talent. He has done an amazing of spreading the ball out across his receiving core. Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Noah Brown each have multiple 140+ receiving yard games this season. Collins was Stroud’s favorite target early in the season, but Dell has emerged recently as a phenomenal talent. Veterans Robert Woods and TE Dalton Schultz provide two more safety valves for Stroud. The Texans trust Stroud to throw at a high clip (tenth most pass attempts in NFL) and he has proven that he is extremely accurate and can already complete difficult passes down the field. The Jaguars defense will have its hands full.
Jacksonville has a solid unit that excels against the run. It gives up the tenth-least yards per rushing attempt. Meanwhile, the Texans are 30th in the NFL in yards per carry. They will be forced to pass. This is something that they have been accustomed to, but that doesn’t make things any easier. The Jags are tied for fourth in the league in interceptions and rank fourth in PFF coverage grade. Cornerback Darious Williams is especially potent in coverage, ranking fourth out of 114 qualified CBs in PFF coverage grade. This will be the toughest secondary CJ Stroud has faced since Week 3… against the Jaguars. I expect the Texans offense to break through a bit, but not to the tune of 30+ points like it has been.
Switching sides, we find another young quarterback. 2021 first overall pick Trevor Lawrence is trying to find some consistency. He is coming off of a great four-touchdown performance against Tennessee. Oddly similar to the Texans, the Jaguars offense almost entirely relies upon the passing game. Jacksonville is 28th in yards per carry, yet tenth in rushing attempts. They have won a couple of blowouts and some grind-it-out games, which is what has led to this. To move the ball most efficiently, they pass. The Jags are 13th in net yards per pass attempt and seventh in PFF passing grade.
The Texans are even better against the run than the Jaguars are, giving up the fifth-least yards per carry this season. Jacksonville will also be forced to pass the ball. WRs Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk provide two solid options for Lawrence, and RB Travis Etienne also is a big factor in the passing game. Houston gives up the eighth most net yards per pass attempt. CBs Steven Nelson and Tavierre Thomas grade out well on PFF, but has still given up solid numbers to opposing passing attacks.
The Texans and Jaguars are almost mirror images of each other. Both have a weak running game saved by a great passing attack. Both also do a fantastic job of stopping the run. Because of this, both teams allow high amounts of passing yards despite possessing what I see as strong secondaries because of opposing teams’ need to pass the ball. Ultimately, it comes down to the quarterback play. Oddly enough, I trust rookie QB CJ Stroud more than Trevor Lawrence, who already has a couple of seasons under his belt. No matter who comes out on top, this should be an entertaining, close game with a lot of passing.