Here is a compilation of my thoughts regarding the week’s most interesting games, along with helpful stats and what to watch for this weekend! Each matchup has a score prediction with reasoning. Skip to the end to learn about the most intriguing game this weekend.
Jump to any game!
Broncos at Texans
Sunday | 1:00 ET
I never would have expected Broncos-Texans in Week 13 to be an intriguing matchup, but here we are. After a 1-5 start to the season, Denver has won five straight and is tied with the Texans and Colts at 6-5 in the last AFC wildcard spot. Their defense has been leading the way, allowing 22 points or less in each of the last five games (including a 24-9 victory over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs). The Texans are in the same position as the Broncos; they just have gotten there a little less dramatically. Rookie quarterback CJ Stroud is having an amazing year and is trying to squeak into the playoffs. With both teams vying for the same playoff spot, this is a must-win game for both parties.
The most interesting matchup is definitely the Texans offense versus the Broncos defense. Nearly every defensive metric hates the Broncos. They rank dead last in PFF defensive grade and have given up the second-most yards per play over the course of the season. However, these stats are skewed by the first half of the season, especially the historic 70-point outburst by the Dolphins in Week 3. Despite what the season-long numbers say, this defense (especially the secondary) is playing at a very high level now. Consider these opposing quarterback stat lines from the winning streak: Patrick Mahomes, 240 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT; Josh Allen, 177 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, Dorian Thompson Robinson, 134 yards, 1 TD. Led by star cornerback Pat Surtain II and safety Justin Simmons, Denver is a no-fly zone. However, they will be put to the test.
Texans QB CJ Stroud has been surgical in the passing game. He has established great connections with his wide receivers already, especially fellow rookie Tank Dell. Houston is fourth in passing yards and third in net yards per pass attempt. I can’t wait to see how this battle shakes out. Surtain II can only shadow one receiver, and the Texans have several viable receiving options in Dell, Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and Dalton Schultz.
While Houston’s passing attack is its strength and Denver’s coverage is its, neither group has similar prowess on the ground. The Broncos give up the most yards per carry in the NFL (5.4), while the Texans gain the fourth-least yards per carry (3.7). I would expect things to lean the Houston’s way. Though the season-long numbers are not good, Texans running back Devin Singletary has recorded two 100+ rushing yard games in the last three weeks. I think that we will have another great game and allow the passing game to open up.
Switching sides, it’s tough to tell who has the upper hand. The Texans defense gives up the eighth-most yards per play. Still, rookie edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. is having a good rookie year (6th in PFF run defense grade among edge rushers) and linebacker Blake Cashman is having a breakout season. Led by Anderson Jr. and Cashman, Houston has allowed the fourth-least yards per carry this season. The Broncos are barely above average in rushing this season, so I’d expect them to have trouble on the ground. QB Russell Wilson will need to step up and make some big throws against a Texans defense that allows the fourth-most net yards per pass attempt. He certainly could, but I don’t like that fact that he will be relied upon so heavily.
This is a really difficult decision, but I’ll take the Texans. Devin Singletary will need to have a big game, and I think he will. On the other side, I still don’t trust Wilson to put the team on his shoulders and throw his way into a win.
Score Prediction: Texans 23 Broncos 17
Seahawks at Cowboys
Thursday | 8:15 ET
The floundering Seahawks will visit the surging Cowboys in Dallas on Thursday Night Football this week. Seattle comes in at 6-5 in the midst of a two-game losing streak. Every game matters as they try to hang onto an NFC wildcard spot. Unfortunately for them, they may run into a buzzsaw this week in Dallas. The Cowboys are winners of three in a row, and have outscored opponents by exactly 100 points in this stretch. They are absolutely obliterating teams. The Seahawks, though, will provide some stiffer competition.
The Cowboys defense is its strength. Dallas allows the third-least yards per play in the NFL, and the fourth-least net yards per pass attempt. Cornerback Daron Bland is having a historic season. Last week, he recorded his fifth pick-six of the 2023 season, breaking the NFL single-season record. He ranks first in PFF grade out of 120 qualified cornerbacks. Veteran CB Stephon Gilmore is having a nice season as well. Led by defensive player of the year-candidate Micah Parsons (third in PFF grade out of 106 qualified edges) and Dexter Lawrence (eighth in PFF grade out of 106 qualified edges), the pass rush has boosted the secondary’s numbers by creating pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Dallas ranks third in PFF pass rush grade.
Geno Smith and the Seahawks will be tasked with scoring against this fantastic defense. This offense should be good. It ranks 10th in PFF offensive grade, and is lined with talent in WRs DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and RB Kenneth Walker III. However, it only ranks 15th in net yards per pass attempt and 22nd in yards per carry. In my opinion, it all comes down to quarterback Geno Smith. When the Seahawks were winning, it was usually behind big efforts from Geno. When he throws for over 250 passing yards this season, the team has a record of 4-1. When he goes under, the team is 2-4. Especially with Walker’s injury, it all comes down to the passing attack. Against Daron Bland and the Cowboys’ stingy coverage, this will be a monumental challenge. Even though Seattle hasn’t been efficient on the ground, expect them at least try to pound the rock early. Don’t expect much out of any skill position players this week.
Switching sides, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is on a heater this year. He has thrown the second most passing touchdowns (23) and led the Cowboys to ranking fourth in net yards per pass attempt. WR CeeDee Lamb is reaping the benefits. He is third in receiving yards on the year. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are slightly below average against the pass this year. They have good players, but don’t grade out well in any passing stats against. Rookie CB Devon Witherspoon is having an amazing season. He ranks fourth out of 120 qualified cornerbacks in PFF grade. It will be interesting to see how much he can slow down CeeDee Lamb in the slot.
The Seahawks pass rush has been effective this year. Seattle is top-ten in both hurry and pressure percentage. Unfortunately for them, Dallas has allowed the eighth-least sacks. Left tackle Tyron Smith leads an offensive line that has consistently protected Prescott this season.
The Cowboys are going to win this game easily. Two of their three losses were on the road against top NFC powers (49ers and Eagles), the other a slip-up against the Cardinals. Dallas is still undefeated at home this year and are the hottest team in the NFL. Seattle will run into a buzz saw on Thursday Night.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 34 Seahawks 17
Game of the Week
Eagles at 49ers
Sunday | 4:25 ET
The Eagles and 49ers are two of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, and will provide the league an entertaining game in Week 13’s late afternoon slot. Philadelphia is fresh off of a thrilling overtime victory over Buffalo, and now sit at 10-1 after defeating the Cowboys, Chiefs and Bills all in a row. They are doing incredible things right now and always seem to find a way to come out on top. San Fransisco is 8-3 and winners of their last three contests. Each of those wins was in convincing fashion, two of them against teams in playoff position (Jaguars, Seahawks). In addition, this game is personal to the 49ers. After getting crushed by the Eagles in the NFC Championship game last season, they’ll leave it all out on the field this Sunday.
Quarterback Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense will face the monumental task of producing against the 49ers defense. The unit has allowed the second-least total points this season (despite still having its bye week in its pocket), allows the fourth-least yards per play, and is littered with star-power. Fred Warner ranks first out of 81 qualified linebackers in PFF grade, and Joey Bosa ranks second out of 105 qualified edge rushers in the same stat. Led by Bosa (8 sacks) and bolstered by Javon Hargrave (6 sacks) Arik Armstead (5 sacks), the 49ers defense ranks first in PFF pass rush grade. It will be fascinating to see what it can do against Philadelphia’s offensive line, which is probably the best the league has to offer.
The Eagles are ninth in net yards per pass attempt and 16th in yards per carry. They aren’t extremely efficient in either, but they always find a way to combat the defense that they are facing. After a slow first half against the Bills this past week, Philadelphia turned to D’Andre Swift in the run game and found success. San Fransisco’s defense is very good against both the run and the pass (the group has given up the second-least rushing yards and ranks second in PFF coverage grade), so there is no reason for the Eagles to stray from a balanced attack on offense. Strategy-wise, I expect the Eagles to hammer quick passes. Wide receiver AJ Brown is great in the slant game, although he will face a tough matchup in cornerback Charvarius Ward. This side of the ball is completely dependent on the battle in the trenches, however. Whomever wins that will have the upper hand.
Flipping sides, we have another great battle. The 49ers are the most efficient passing offense in the NFL, ranking first in net yards per pass attempt. With WR Deebo Samuel, TE George Kittle, and RB Christian McCaffrey, it relies upon yards after the catch (YAC). The Eagles defense has given up the 13th-most YAC this year. It has also allowed the fourth-most passing yards and second-most passing touchdowns. The 49ers could feast through the air.
However, the reason that the Eagles have been able to win with such poor coverage stats is behind its pass rush. DT Jalen Carter and co. have accounted for the most QB pressures in the NFL this year. While San Fransisco has a Hall of Famer in Trent Williams at left tackle, the rest of the line is far from perfect. The unit ranks 28th in PFF pass block grade, but has allowed the fourth-least sacks. If the numbers are any indicator, I’d expect the Eagles to force constant pressure upon 49ers QB Brock Purdy, but only get home a few times. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is aware of Phidelphia’s dangerous pass rush, and will scheme up many ways to get the ball out quickly. Even against other teams, this is a staple of the Shanahan offense. The way I see it, the 49ers won’t have to change their passing offensive attack too much.
Ultimately, I find myself leaning against the Eagles for the second week in a row. The 49ers are playing very well right now on both sides of the ball. In my opinion, whoever wins the battle in the trenches when the Eagles have the ball wins.