Here is a compilation of my thoughts regarding the week’s most interesting games, along with helpful stats and what to watch for this weekend! Each matchup has a score prediction with reasoning. Skip to the end to learn about the most intriguing game this weekend.
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Lions at Bears
Sunday | 1:00 ET
The Bears will host the Lions on Sunday in a rematch of a wild Week 11 matchup. The last time these two teams met, the Bears dominated the game, doubling Detroit’s time of possesion and winning the turnover battle 4-1. The Lions erased a 12 point deficit with only four minutes remaining and were able to avoid the upset. Since then, Detroit lost on Thanksgiving to the Packers and nearly blew a 21 point lead to the Saints. They are still trying to right the ship from Week 11, while the Bears come in off of a win at Minnesota and their bye week. The Lions will surely take the Bears more seriously this time around, but Chicago will be hungry for a while considering the way the first game played out.
The Lions offense is fantastic. It is able to gain considerable yardage through both the run and pass games. It is fourth in yards per play and net yards per pass attempt, and fifth in yards per carry. It has accumulated the fourth most passing yards, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns (19) in the NFL (odd, I know). Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is the focal point of the offense, but the running back duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery is arguably the strongest in the league, and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta is a viable receiving option.
The Bears defense is very good against the run, but susceptible against the pass. It gives up the fourth-least yards per carry, yet the ninth-most net yards per pass attempt. For this reason, Chicago is eighth in pass attempts against compared to 29th in rush attempts against. Teams don’t even try to run the ball against the Bears.
On paper, this wouldn’t faze the Lions. They are just as, if not more, efficient through the air as they are on the ground. However, QB Jared Goff threw three interceptions the last time these teams met. Every time he released the ball, it felt like it was going to be caught by a Bears defender. The Bears secondary has gotten a lot better since getting fully healthy, and racked up another four interceptions against the Vikings in Week 12. The Lions may struggle again.
Switching sides, the Bears offense, similar to its defense, is strong in the running game, but not as much in the passing game. Chicago is 24th in net yards per pass attempt, but seventh in yards per carry. However, I think that both numbers would be higher had QB Justin Fields not missed time.
In his first game back from injury against the Lions, Fields had arguably the most encouraging game of his career. Fields was small and decisive with his passes and dynamic on the ground (104 rushing yards). OC Luke Getsy called a plethora of rushing plays for him against a Lions defense that struggles against running QB and got him out on the run, and it payed dividends (some would argue that that type of gameplan should always be employed with Justin Fields at quarterback, but I digress). I’d expect a similar strategy this time around. It utilizes Fields’ strengths, and also helps negate Detroit’s pass rush.
The Lions have not racked up the sacks, but do rank seventh in pressure percentage. DT Alim McNeil’s injury, however, is a major blow to the unit. Fields should have plenty of time behind an offensive line that has really found its footing.
The Lions defense has struggled mightily lately. It gives up the sixth-least yards per carry, which is not good news for Chicago. Luckily, it can get its rushing yards through the quarterback. The Lions have given up the sixth most passing TDs in the NFL, so expect it to be TE Cole Kmet or WR DJ Moore cashing in the Chicago touchdowns.
Ultimately, I think this will be another close game. Because of their last meeting, both teams will be jacked up for this game. The Bears know that they should’ve won last time, and the Lions know that they were outplayed. In the end, I think that Justin Fields will find more success on the ground and will be able to throw a couple of touchdowns against this Detroit secondary. As long as the Bears can avoid a large, early deficit, I think they come out on top.
Score Prediction: Bears 27 Lions 24
Bills at Chiefs
Sunday | 4:25 ET
In what projected to be a battle with first-round-bye implications before the season, the 6-6 Bills will head to Kansas City to take on the 8-4 Chiefs. The Bills are two weeks removed from firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Since he’s left, Buffalo has put up 32 points on a very good Jets defense and 34 points against the 10-2 Eagles. Unfortunately, it’s probably too late for them. Buffalo probably can’t lose another game and face a gauntlet to finish out the season. Kansas City, though its record is much better, may be playing worse than Buffalo right now. The Chiefs will come into Week 14 fresh off of a loss to the Jordan Love-led Packers, and still haven’t figured it out on offense. Still, Kansas City is in play for the 1 seed in the AFC and has major incentive to win this game.
The Bills offense is one of the most efficient in the NFL. It averages the third-most yards per play. Led by MVP candidate quarterback Josh Allen, Buffalo is fourth in net yards per pass attempt. Allen is second in the NFL with 24 touchdown passes and has added nine more on the ground. WR Stefon Diggs is one of the best in the league. Meanwhile, the Chiefs defense has been very strong in 2023. It gives up the second-least net yards per pass attempt. CB Trent McDuffie ranks seventh out of 117 qualified CBs in PFF grade. Diggs versus McDuffie is a matchup that I will be watching for. Both McDuffie and CB L’Jarious Sneed have great PFF pass rush grades. Kansas City loves to blitz its corners off of the edge and usually finds success with it multiple times per game. This is something that Josh Allen will have to be conscious of.
The run game is where the Bills should make their hay on Sunday. Buffalo averages the seventh-most yards per carry and is third in rushing first downs. Kansas City gives up the fifth-most yards per carry. Bills RB James Cook has a great opportunity to put the team on his back. Josh Allen should also be involved in the rushing attack. If the Bills move off of the status quo and focus on the run game, I think they could find success.
Switching sides, the Chiefs offense has been more efficient than it feels. Kansas City is tenth in both net yards per pass attempt and yards per carry. QB Patrick Mahomes is tied for fifth in passing touchdowns (22). Still, this offense has been held under 20 points in four of its last five games. The lack of reliable wide receivers is holding it back. The Bills have given up the eighth-least net yards per pass attempt and total passing yards this season, so I don’t expect the Chiefs to be too successful through the air.
Buffalo is not good against the run. Despite linebacker Tyrel Dodson ranking fifth in PFF run defense among LBs, the Bills have given up the fourth-highest yards per carry. Edge Gregory Rousseau is also a plus in this category, but DL Jordan Phillips and edge rusher Leonard Floyd are two of the worst in the NFL in this department. Similar to the Bills, the Chiefs will probably find the most success by running the football.
From the outside, Chiefs-Bills looks like a barn burner. You might think that Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen will be trading shots and deep touchdown passes. However, all signs point towards a run-heavy offensive gameplan from both teams. Unlike previous iterations of this matchup, I think that it could be gritty and even a bit ugly.
Turnovers had been the Achilles heel of the Bills offense, but it’s only surrendered two in its past two games. Winning the turnover battle allowed Buffalo to to crush New York and nearly defeat the Eagles. On the other side, Patrick Mahomes has thrown the fourth-most interceptions in the NFL. If Buffalo wins the turnover battle again, which I think it will, they’ll escape Arrowhead with a massive upset win.
Score Prediction: Bills 24 Chiefs 20
Game of the Week
Eagles at Cowboys
Sunday | 8:20 ET
The Eagles (10-2) and Cowboys (9-3) will face off on Sunday Night Football in a game with massive NFC East implications which will shape the NFC playoff picture. With the Eagles big loss to the 49ers in Week 12, Dallas is now only one game behind them in the division. Philadelphia won the first matchup in Week 7, despite a 191 receiving yard game from Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb.
Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has put himself into the MVP conversation and has the Cowboys offense looking the best it has in years. Over his last seven games, he has a phenomenal touchdown-interception ratio of 21-2. Dallas has scored the most total points in the NFL this season and have put up at least 40 points in four of its last six games.
The left side of the offensive line is elite which has allowed Dak to benefit from a low team sack percentage. This will be important against the Eagles defensive line that is lined with stars such as Hassan Reddick, Josh Sweat, and Jalen Carter. This group hasn’t put up an insane amount of sacks this year, but they rank first in the NFL in QB pressures. Putting pressure on Prescott could be the way to disrupt his impressive run. In fact, the Eagles are in trouble if they aren’t able to do so.
Philadelphia has given up the third most passing yards and second most passing touchdowns in the NFL this year. CeeDee Lamb had a field day against this defense in Week 7, and I see no reason why he doesn’t do the same this week. If the Cowboys offense is allowed ample time for deep routes to develop, it could be well on its way to another 30 point game.
The good news for the Eagles defense is that it does have the upper hand in the rushing game. Cowboys running back has struggled to get going this year and the Eagles are solid against the run. Dak will have to shoulder the load.
Switching sides, the Jalen Hurts and the Eagles will face a tough challenge in the Cowboys defense. Dallas gives up the fourth least yards per play, and is especially strong against the pass. Cornerback Daron Bland, despite a rough performance against DK Metcalf on Thursday Night Football this past week, has been fantastic this year. Things won’t get any easier this week, however, as Bland will see a lot of WRs AJ Brown and Devonta Smith.
The pass rush is another terrifying aspect of the Dallas defense. The defense ranks seventh in sacks and is headlined by Micah Parsons off of the edge and Dexter Lawrence up the middle. The Eagles offensive line is strong. Each player in unit is ranked at least 19th in PFF grade for their respective position, three of which are top-ten. However, they oddly give up a lot of sacks. They’ve given up the 12th-most sacks in the NFL this season, along with the 12th-highest sack percentage.
If the Cowboys secondary looks to be back on track early in this game, or the pass rush is getting home, I would expect the Eagles to rely on RB D’Andre Swift and Jalen Hurts in the rushing game. The Cowboys are only a bit above average against the run and can’t pressure the quarterback on running plays. Still, I worry about how the Eagles rushing attack might look when trailing.
In all, I see the Cowboys evening out the season series and handing the Eagles their second straight loss. Dak and CeeDee are playing at such a high level right now, and the Eagles are the most vulnerable in the passing game. I also think that the Cowboys pass rush will be an issue and the Eagles will not be able to run while trailing. This will cause them to force the ball into the teeth of the Cowboys defense, its secondary.