The playoffs are nearing! Here is a compilation of my thoughts regarding the week’s most interesting games, along with helpful stats and what to watch for this weekend! Each matchup has a score prediction with reasoning. Skip to the end to learn about the most intriguing game this weekend.
Jump to any game!
Bears at Browns
Sunday | 1:00 ET
Justin Fields and the Bears will head to Cleveland to take on the Browns this Sunday. Fields’ first NFL start came in the Dawg Pound, and it wasn’t pretty (sacked eight times). He’ll look to improve upon that performance and keep the Bears winning streak alive. The Bears still have an outside chance of making the playoffs, so this is a meaningful game.
Cleveland will come in at 8-5, in playoff position. However, there are six teams one game behind them, tied at 7-6. The Browns need to keep their foot on the pedal. With injuries stacking up, this could be difficult. The fourth-string quarterback, Joe Flacco, will be starting. Starting safety Grant Delpit was just placed on IR, stud DE Ogbannia Okoronkwo may be out for the season, and the Browns Wednesday injury report consists of RB Jerome Ford, RB Kareem Hunt, OL Ethan Pocic, CB Denzel Ward, and S Juan Thornhill (all DNPs except for Thornhill).
The Browns defense is the strength of the team. It’s one of the best units in the league, giving up the third lowest yards per play. It is particularly strong against the pass (third-lowest net yards allowed per pass attempt). The secondary is beat up, but it seems like star cornerback Denzel Ward may return for this game. That would be a major boost to a group that also consists of Greg Newsome II and Martin Emerson Jr. (fourth in interceptions). Myles Garrett plays a massive role on this defense. The Browns rank fifth in pressure percentage this season, although losing Okoronkwo will hurt this number. Still, Myles Garrett is probably the best defensive player in the NFL. He has 13 sacks this season (seventh in NFL) and has forced four fumbles (tied third in NFL).
Cleveland is also solid against the run (12th-lowest yards/carry given up). Linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is third in tackles for loss this season with 16. Still, the Bears offense will have to attack this aspect of the Browns defense. Chicago is ninth in yards per carry, and fourth in both rush attempts and rushing yards. QB Justin Fields is dynamic on the ground and has been the Bears’ leading rusher in three straight contests. Considering the amount of man coverage that Cleveland employs, I would expect another big rushing game from Fields.
When the Bears do pass, I would expect them to attack the deep part of the field. Cleveland’s corners are elite (especially if Ward is healthy), but safety Grant Delpit is out for the year and safety Juan Thornhill is not fully healthy. D’Anthony Bell, whose only played 45 defensive snaps this year, will likely be thrust into heavy action. DJ Moore has been one of the best wide receivers in the NFL with Justin Fields under center, so it will be interesting to see what he can do against the Browns secondary. This will also be a massive litmus test for QB Justin Fields. He’s been playing well lately; now it’s time to see what he looks like against a top-level defense.
Switching sides, the Browns offense has undergone a major change in the past two weeks. With Joe Flacco thrust into action, an offense that is first in rushing attempts despite ranking 16th in yards per carry has abandoned the run game. In two games with Flacco under center, Cleveland has made 89 pass attempts and only gained 169 rushing yards, despite playing with the lead for almost the entirety of Week 14. This is an offense that has heavily relied on the rushing game this season. However, I expect them to air it out against against the Bears, who have given up the second-least yards per carry, fourth least rushing yards, and have faced the fourth-least rushing attempts in the NFL.
The Bears coverage stats aren’t great, but the entire defense (secondary included) has played fantastically over the past several weeks. Turnovers, which used to be a rarity, have been plentiful. The Bears have 11 takeaways in the last three games. Meanwhile, the Browns are first in turnovers on offense, including three last week. CB Jaylon Johnson ranks first in PFF grade out of 119 qualified CBs. Edge rusher Montez Sweat is a force, and could have a monster game lined up against Browns RT James Hudson III (ranks 84th out of 84 qualified RTs in PFF grade).
In all, everything expect for the team records suggests a Bears upset. It is never easy to win in the Dawg Pound, and the Browns are 6-1 there in 2023. However, injuries are stacking up and the Bears will come in with a newfound confidence and swagger. Chicago’s defense is on a heater, and the Browns surrender the most turnovers in the league. They won’t be able to run it, and will be forced to pass into a secondary that is playing very well. I also think that Montez Sweat plays a big role.
The Bears could have a tough time scoring on offense, but I think that Justin Fields and the running backs will be able to do just enough work on the ground to get it done. The Bears win a close one.
Score Prediction: Bears 17 Browns 13
Ravens at Jaguars
Sunday | 8:20 ET
Two potential playoff teams will face off on Sunday Night Football this week in the Ravens and Jaguars. Jacksonville is on a two game losing streak and is in danger of losing its hold on the NFC South. Meanwhile, the Ravens are winners of three straight and have sole possession of the top seed in the AFC.
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is having one of the most impressive seasons in the NFL this year, and is coming off of a 316 passing yard, three touchdown, 70 rushing yard performance. He has led Baltimore to great efficiency both on the ground and through the air this season. The Ravens are sixth in net yards per pass attempt and second in yards per carry this year. Despite their efficiency through the air, the Ravens have the fourth-least pass attempts this season due to almost always playing with the lead. They are first in rushing yards and second in rushing attempts. Running the ball so much with RB Gus Edwards has allowed Jackson to avoid turnovers; the Ravens have thrown the second-least interceptions this season (6). Edwards is not a special talent, but he is able to be efficient due to a good offensive line and the added threat of Lamar’s rushing ability. Defenses also have to respect the success that Jackson had had through the air this season, which spreads the defense even thinner.
The Jaguars will have a tough time slowing down the impressive Baltimore offensive attack. They’ve allowed 30+ points in two straight games, to third-string QB Joe Flacco with the Browns and the Bengals with backup QB Jake Browning under center. Lamar Jackson is playing like a top-three quarterback right now, so I can’t imagine what he’ll do on Sunday. Jacksonville allows the fifth-most net yards per pass attempt. Impressively, the defense has allowed the fourth-least rushing yards. They are tough against the run, so it will be interesting to see what Baltimore tries to do on Sunday, considering its prowess in the running game. The bad news for the Jaguars is that the Ravens offense can score in any way it wants to. Though the strength is the rushing attack, Jackson is perfectly capable of putting up big passing numbers against stout run defenses (357 passing yards vs. Lions in Week 7, 316 vs. Rams in Week 14).
Flipping sides, its tough to project what we’ll see out of the Jaguars offense. QB Trevor Lawrence, to my surprise, felt good enough to suit up last week against a very good Browns defense. He threw three TDs and three INTs on a whopping 50 passing attempts. Possibly not fully healthy, he was forced to air it out against arguably the best secondary in the league because of Jacksonville’s inability to run the ball. This led to three interceptions. Unfortunately for the Jaguars, nothing gets easier this week against the Ravens.
The reason the Browns have “arguably” the best secondary in the NFL is because the Ravens exist. Baltimore allows the least net yards per pass attempt and has given up the least passing touchdowns in the NFL. Its run defense numbers are average to below average, but it won’t matter. The Jaguars can’t run the ball; they average the third-least yards per carry in the NFL. Just like last week against Cleveland, the Jaguars will be forced to rely on Trevor Lawrence’s arm against a phenomenal secondary. He may hit on a couple of home run balls, but this is not a sustainable gameplan against the defense that has given up the second-least total points in the NFL this year.
In all, the Jaguars’ inability to run the ball will lead to trouble on the offensive side of the ball. Meanwhile, the Ravens can do anything on offense and will eat the floundering Jaguars defense alive.
Score Prediction: Ravens 34 Jaguars 24
Game of the Week
Cowboys at Bills
Sunday | 4:25
The Dallas Cowboys are the hottest team in the NFL right now. They’ve won seven of their last eight games, and are fresh off of a dominating win over the previously NFC-leading Philadelphia Eagles. Dallas is now tied for the number one seed in the NFC with San Francisco, so every game is important. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys will head to Buffalo this week to take on the 7-6 Bills. After an underwhelming first half of the season, the Bills have turned things around and are playing good football. Last week they beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead. Every game is must-win if they want a chance at making the playoffs. So, both teams are fresh off of huge wins and have great incentive to keep the momentum going; this should be a fun game!
The Cowboys offense may be the best unit in the league. It’s put up at least 30 points in six of its last seven games (reaching 40 points in four of those). Quarterback Dak Prescott, currently the MVP frontrunner, is first in the NFL in passing touchdowns, second in passer rating, and fourth in passing yards. Superstar wide reciever CeeDee Lamb is third in receiving yards and receptions, and fourth in receiving touchdowns. As a result, the Cowboys rank fourth in net yards per pass attempt.
On defense, the Bills are solid against the pass. They give up the tenth-least net yards per pass attempt. CB Rasul Douglas is having a fantastic year (fourth in PFF grade out of 119 qualified CBs). Unfortunately, CeeDee Lamb usually lines up in the slot (Douglas rarely lines up there). CB Taron Johnson will see the most of him. Johnson is also an above average player, but not as dominating as Douglas. Still, he has a chance to give Lamb some issues.
The Cowboys offense doesn’t have much of a running game. It ranks 18th in yards per carry. RB Tony Pollard has not hit his stride. However, the Bills defense gives up the third-most yards per carry. I’m inclined to believe that the Cowboys rushing attack could find some success. At the very least, it will be competent. This will allow the Cowboys to stay two-dimensional, keeping the passing attack lethal.
Switching sides, the Bills offense always has a high ceiling with Josh Allen under center. Allen is second in passing touchdowns, only three behind Dak Prescott. However, he’s also added ten more on the ground. The Bills are fourth in net yards per pass attempt. WR Stefon Diggs is in a bit of a slump right now, but is still one of the best receivers in the league. Dallas will provide a challenge, though. Its defense gives up the fifth-least net yards per pass attempt. Cornerback Daron Bland ranks second out of 119 qualified cornerbacks in PFF grade, and has recorded an NFL record five pick-sixes this season. Josh Allen, a gunslinger, has thrown the most inteceptions in the NFL this year (14). As crazy as it is to say, there is a good chance Daron Bland records an interception in this game, and decent chance that it’s a pick-six.
In the run game, Buffalo has the edge. Part of this recent offensive success is due to the increased involvement of RB James Cook. However, this will only play a factor if the Bills are able to stay in the game. If they get down multiple scores, Josh Allen will be forced to air it out (even more than he usually does).
As much as I like the Bills right now (I picked them to win last week at Arrowhead), the Cowboys are too hot. I see no reason why Prescott doesn’t continue his insane season. Both the passing and rushing attack will be available and it will prove too much for the Buffalo defense. I think that Allen could keep things interesting for a while, but he’s certain to throw an interception or two. The Cowboys win another one.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 30 Bills 24