Here is a deep dive into Week 16’s two blockbuster matchups. Each matchup has a score prediction with reasoning. With arguably the top four teams all facing off against each other this week, there will be lots to talk about around the Christmas tree.
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Cowboys at Dolphins
Sunday | 4:25 ET
Both the Dolphins and Cowboys will head into Week 16 at 10-4, second place in their conference. Each team is holding out hope of securing a first round bye in its respective conference, so a win this week is vital. The Cowboys are fresh off of a worrying loss in Buffalo. The Bills ended a five game Cowboys winning streak with a dominant 31-10 win last week. While Josh Allen had a quiet day, Buffalo running back James Cook logged 179 rushing yards on the Cowboys defense. Meanwhile, the Dolphins spent Week 15 bludgeoning the New York Jets, 30-0. Without Tyreek Hill (who I expect to return this week), Miami was able to lean on WR Jaylen Waddle and RB Raheem Mostert for an easy win. Notably, the Dolphins held Jets RB Breece Hall to 12 rushing yards on six carries.
This matchup features two of the best offenses in the NFL. The Dolphins are first in the league in total points. Miami is elite in both the passing and rushing attack. The offense is first in passing yards (QB Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL) and second in net yards per pass attempt. It features the best wide receiver in the league, Tyreek Hill. Hill is first in both receiving yards (1542) and receiving touchdowns (12). After missing last week’s game due to injury, I expect him to suit up against the Cowboys. Considering the prowess of the Miami passing attack, the Cowboys defense is one of the only units that could slow it down. Dallas has allowed the fifth-least points this season, and allows the eighth-least net yards per pass attempt. Its secondary is so good that the defense has faced the second-least pass attempts in the NFL. Cornerback DaRon Bland has an NFL-record five pick sixes on the year. I can’t wait to see what the Dolphins can do through the air. I’d bet that Hill still finds a way to get his 100+ yards.
While things could come to a stalemate through the air, the Dolphins offense has a clear advantage on the ground. Led by running back Raheem Mostert, rookie RB Devon Achane, and head coach Mike McDaniel’s infinite knowledge of the running game, the Dolphins sit at first in yards per carry, fourth in rushing yards, and first in rushing touchdowns. Mostert leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 18. The Dolphins have the best rushing attack in the NFL, and will be a handful for the Dallas run defense. The Cowboys have allowed the 13th-most yards per carry this season. Last week, the unit was able to hold Josh Allen to only 94 passing yards, but it didn’t matter. RB James Cook was able to dominate the Dallas defense through the running game, racking up 179 rushing yards. Going up against the most efficient rushing attack in the league, I fear that the Cowboys may see the same fate this week.
Switching sides, the matchup is just as interesting. The Cowboys are second in total points, led by QB Dak Prescott and star WR CeeDee Lamb. Prescott was the MVP frontrunner heading into last week, and is second in the NFL in passing touchdowns. Dallas ranks sixth in net yards per pass attempt and sixth in passing yards. It will face a good Miami secondary that has given up the seventh-least net yards per pass attempt this season. Safety Jevon Holland ranks second in PFF grade out of 94 qualified safeties. Former Pro-Bowlers Xavien Howard and Jalen Ramsey fill out the cornerback room. This is a good Dolphins secondary, but I do expect Prescott to find some success through the air based on his level of play this season.
On the ground, the Cowboys are solid. They rank 11th in yards per carry and 12th in rushing yards. Unfortunately for them, the Dolphins are fantastic against the run. Miami allows the fourth-least yards per carry. Big DT Christian Wilkins is a good run stopper, and LB David Long Jr. ranks first in PFF run defense grade among 77 qualified linebackers. I don’t expect Cowboys RB Tony Pollard to find success on the ground.
After doing the research, I find myself leaning towards a Dolphins victory this week. The Dolphins are the best in the league at running the football, and the Cowboys lost last week because of the massive amount of rushing yards that the Bills (a less efficient running team) put up. Mostert and Achane will feast, and Tyreek Hill is too good to stay quiet. I do think that the Cowboys will score a decent amount of points, but Dak won’t be able to keep up with Miami. The Dolphins are also third in pressure percentage, so (forced to pass) Prescott will be under fire. Dolphins win.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 34 Cowboys 24
Game of the Week
Ravens at 49ers
Monday | 8:15 ET
In the matchup of the year, the 11-3, AFC leading Ravens will head to Santa Barbara to take on the 11-3, NFC leading 49ers. This is a potential Super Bowl preview. You can find both of these teams at the top of nearly every single important team stat. The Ravens have won four straight, while the 49ers have won six in a row. Both teams have a top-five offense and a top-five defense.
Led by QB Lamar Jackson, the Ravens offense is one of the best in the NFL. It is fourth in total points this season. Its rushing attack is lethal. The Ravens are second in yards per carry, first in total rushing yards, first in rushing attempts, and tied for second in rushing touchdowns. Baltimore usually grabs the lead early, and pounds the rock for the rest of the game. Like the Ravens, the 49ers are also usually winning. For this reason, the San Fransisco defense has faced the least rushing attempts and given up the sixth-least rushing touchdowns. Notably, it allows the 12th highest yards per carry. Considering that stat and the strength of the Ravens rushing game, RB Gus Edwards might be able to find some success.
In terms of passing, the Ravens are seventh in net yards per pass attempts. Emphasizing the run, they are 31st in pass attempts. This has allowed the Ravens to limit interceptions (thrown second least in NFL this season). WR Odell Beckham Jr. is in the midst of a career resurgence, and TE Isaiah Likely has been stepping up in the wake of Mark Andrews’ injury. However, Niners defense could rain on this parade. San Fransisco has given up the second-least total points this season, and the main reason for this is the way that it defends the pass. The 49ers allow the seventh-least net yards per pass attempts and are first in interceptions. Despite facing the second-most pass attempts in the NFL this season, this defense has given up the fourth-least passing touchdowns. It is fourth in passes deflected (CB Charvarious Ward leads the NFL), second in QB hits, and seventh in sacks. It does a great job of getting to the quarterback and affecting pass attempts. I don’t see the Ravens doing much through the air.
Switching sides, there are many similarities between each team’s respective unit. The 49ers offense is third in points, while the Ravens defense has given up the least points this season. San Fransisco is first in net yards per pass attempt, second in passing yards, and has thrown the second-least interceptions this season (7). Despite ranking last in pass attempts, QB Brock Purdy has thrown the most passing touchdowns in 2023. Purdy is currently the MVP frontrunner, but his teammate Christian McCaffrey also has a case. He leads the NFL in all purpose yards, and is tied for first in rushing touchdowns. While the Niners have the most efficient passing offense, the Ravens have the most stifling pass defense. Baltimore has allowed the least net yards per pass attempt and least passing touchdowns despite facing the third-most pass attempts this season. It’s also first in the league in sacks, led by Justin Madibuke with 11. Though, the 49ers have taken the third-least sacks this season. Both teams are fantastic at everything; I can not wait to see how the league’s best passing attack fares against the league’s best pass defense.
It doesn’t stop there; the Niners are fifth in yards per carry, third in rushing yards, and tied for second in rushing yards. McCaffrey is first in rushing yards, and it’s not even close (1292, second place has 968). The Ravens are normally leading, so the defense has only faced the fourth-least rush attempts. It’s given up the least rushing yards. However (similar to the 49ers), it gives up the 11th-highest yards per carry.
In all, both teams are obviously fantastic. Both pass defenses are phenomenal. Even with the strength of the Niners passing attack, I think that both teams will have to focus on the rushing attack. It will be a weird change-up for both defenses, which each have faced limited rushing attempts. Despite the running game being the identity of the Ravens offense, I think that McCaffrey and the 49ers have the slight edge in this department, especially with RB Keaton Mitchell’s recent injury. CMC will have a massive game on the ground and lead San Fransisco to a massive victory.