Here is a compilation of my thoughts regarding the week’s most interesting games, along with helpful stats and what to watch for this weekend! Each matchup has a score prediction with reasoning. Skip to the end to learn about the most intriguing game this weekend.
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Dolphins at Ravens
Sunday | 1:00 ET
The red-hot Ravens will host the Dolphins this week in a game that is monumental in determining the number one seed in the AFC. The Ravens are riding a six-game winning streak, and just dominated the 49ers in what could have been a Super Bowl preview in last week’s edition of Monday Night Football. Miami also had a big win last week, theirs against the Cowboys. Baltimore currently sits atop the AFC conference at 12-3, but the Dolphins are only one game back at 11-4. If Miami wins, they will be tied with Baltimore and hold the tiebreaker due to head-to-head record. This is a very important game when it comes to first round byes in the playoffs.
QB Tua Tagovailoa has led the Dolphins offense to score the most points in the NFL this season. He leads the league in passing yards and completion percentage. WR Tyreek Hill is an MVP candidate, leading the NFL with 1,641 receiving yards on the season. However, this passing attack may not find as much success this week compared to previous games due to the absence of WR Jaylen Waddle and the difficult matchup against the Ravens defense. Baltimore has given up the least points in the NFL this season, and is best against the pass. The Ravens have allowed the least net yards per pass attempt and have given up the least passing touchdowns this season. Safety Kyle Hamilton, arguably the best secondary player for the Ravens, is “uncertain at best” for this week’s game, which will hurt. But still, S Marcus Williams, and CB Marlon Humphrey will hold it down on the back side. Star linebackers Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen are both also very good in coverage. None of Baltimore’s players are fast enough to run with Tyreek Hill though, so he’ll still get his yards.
Although it’s very difficult to stop Hill, the Dolphins may have trouble getting the ball to any other pass catchers. The Ravens also have a fantastic pass rush, ranking first in sacks this season. Luckily, Miami has is magnificent at running the ball, ranking first in yards per carry (5.0) and rushing touchdowns (26). Baltimore gives up the 11th-most yards per carry, so the Dolphins have an advantage here on paper. However, it should be noted how Miami’s two previous contest have went. Albeit against better run defenses, the Dolphins ran for only 3.5 yards per carry last week, and 2.8 yards per carry in Week 15. I expected RBs Mostert and Achane to have massive games against Dallas, but there was nowhere for them to run. If the Dolphins can’t run the ball well this week in Baltimore, they will not come out with the win.
Both teams are also strong on the other side of the ball. The Ravens are fourth in total points and the Dolphins give up the fifth-least yards per play. Baltimore can do anything on offense, but especially excels at running the ball. The Ravens sit only behind the Dolphins in rushing touchdowns and net yards per rush attempt. However, they also rank first in rushing attempts. If the Ravens can get by just pounding the rock, they will. The Dolphins give up the seventh-least yards per carry. The run defense is solid, but is no where near as effective as the pass rush, which ranks second in both sacks and pressure percentage. All signs point towards the Ravens employing a heavy running strategy against this week. Led by MVP frontrunner QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore is seventh in net yards per pass attempt. However, his rushing abilities combined with the injury to WR Zay Flowers, and the strength of the Dolphins pass rush and secondary suggests a lot of running plays on Sunday.
Ultimately, I see the Ravens winning at home on Sunday afternoon. The recent lack of ability to run the ball by the Dolphins (which used to be a major strength) worries me, as I don’t see Tua being able to win the game solely through the air against the best secondary in the NFL. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s offense is a well-oiled machine that just put up 33 points on the 49ers last week. Add in the home field advantage, and you have a Ravens win on your hands.
Score Prediction: Ravens 30 Dolphins 21
Lions at Cowboys
Saturday | 8:15 ET
In a standalone Saturday Night matchup, the nation will be treated to a high-octane battle between the Detroit Lions and the Dallas Cowboys. The Lions come in at 11-4 after clinching the NFC North division title last week in Minneapolis. Detroit is tied for first place in the NFC and has a real shot at the number one seed. Dallas comes in at 10-5 and as losers of two straight. Both were tough-to-swallow road losses (for different reasons), so the Cowboys will be glad to head back to Jerry’s World to host another top-level team.
This game will feature two great offenses. The Cowboys are second in total points this year. The offense is also last in turnovers, which has certainly improved its efficiency. QB Dak Prescott and the passing game is Dallas’ strength on offense. The Cowboys are sixth in net yards per pass attempt and tied for first in passing touchdowns. WR CeeDee Lamb is the focal point; he leads the NFL in receptions (109) and is second in receiving yards (1424). He will primarily be lined up against Lions rookie CB Brian Branch in the slot. Branch is having a very nice rookie season, and ranks 21st in PFF grade out of 123 qualified cornerbacks. It will be fun to see what he can do in a major challenge against Lamb. As a whole, the Lions defense does not excel against the pass, which has led to the Lions giving up the ninth-most points this season. It gives up the eighth-most net yards per pass attempt and has allowed the eighth-most passing touchdowns. Detroit has the third-highest DADOT (average depth of target against), which means that teams prefer to throw deep passes when facing them. Expect this to ring true on Saturday, especially considering the strength of Detroit’s run defense.
Dallas has a perfectly average rushing attack, ranking 16th in both yards per carry and rushing touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Lions are very strong in this department. The Detroit defense allows the sixth-least yards per carry and fourth-least rushing yards per game. Oddly enough, it has also allowed the ninth-most rushing touchdowns. So, RB Tony Pollard could definitely stumble into the endzone, but he won’t be the reason the team made it that far down the field.
Another interesting aspect of this battle is penalties. The Lions defense has committed the fourth-least penalties this season, while the Cowboys offense has committed the second-most. Detroit should have a real advantage in that department; we’ll see how much that affects things.
Flipping sides, the Lions are very well-rounded on offense. Detroit is fifth in total points, fourth in net yards per pass attempt, and fifth in yards per carry. The unit has somehow managed to rank fifth in passing touchdowns and fourth in rushing touchdowns. RBs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are dynamic in the backfield, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the best receivers in the NFL, and rookie TE Sam LaPorta is superseding anyone’s wildest expectations. This week, I expect Montgomery and Gibbs to be the focal points against a Dallas defense that is very good against the pass. The Cowboys give up the tenth-least net yards per pass attempt, and have allowed the fifth-least passing yards. Even though the team is 10-5 (usually with the lead), it has faced the second-least passing attempts. Even when teams are trailing Dallas, they refuse to pass the ball.
One reason for this is the monsters that the Cowboys unleash in the pass rush. Edge rusher Micah Parsons ranks first out of 114 qualified edges in PFF grade, and edge rusher Dexter Lawrence ranks eighth. Dallas ranks second in PFF pass rush grade as a unit. Now, despite all of the playmakers, Detroit’s offensive line is its strongest asset. Center Frank Ragnow and tackle Penei Sewell both rank first in their respective positions in PFF grade. Right guard Graham Glasgow isn’t far behind at fifth among guards in the NFL. Because of these players, the Lions allow a low sack percentage. While most teams find it beneficial to stick to the run game to avoid being torn apart, the Lions are one of the only teams that could have a chance at limiting this pass rush. It will be interesting to see how this trench battle unfolds.
In terms of the running game, that big Detroit offensive line really helps. The Lions are third in rushing yards and fifth in yards per carry. Meanwhile, the Dallas defense is 15th in yards per carry allowed and 16th in rushing yards allowed. Detroit should be able to exploit this, although it should be noted that the Dolphins (the most efficient rushing attack in the NFL) had real trouble getting yards on the ground last week against the Cowboys.
In all, this should be a very evenly-matched, entertaining matchup. Dallas shouldn’t find much efficiency on the ground, but will shred the Detroit secondary. The Lions face a tough challenge in the Dallas secondary, but are just as happy getting yards on the ground. I expect a very tight game, but I have Detroit coming out on top. Tua put up 293 passing yards last week against the Cowboys, and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has a phenomenal matchup against Jourdan Lewis (123rd out of 124 qualified CBs in coverage grade) in the slot. If the secondary shuts things down, Jahmyr Gibbs is breaking out and will be able to get good yardage. The Lions are just too balanced.