Here is a compilation of my thoughts regarding the week’s most interesting games, along with helpful stats and what to watch for this weekend! Each matchup has a score prediction with reasoning. Skip to the end to learn about the most intriguing game this weekend.
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Bears at Packers
Sunday | 4:25 ET
This one’s a dousy. The Bears will head to Green Bay to conclude their 2023 season this week with Tony Romo and Jim Nantz on the call. Chicago is eliminated from playoff contention, but the situation for the Packers is different: win, and you’re in. After getting blown out by Green Bay all the way back in Week 1, there is nothing that the Bears would love better than to spoil the Packers’ playoff chances (in what would be eerily similar to the way that the 2022 season concluded with Detroit defeating Green Bay at home and knocking them out of the playoffs). There is also some drama between WR DJ Moore and CB Jaire Alexander after Alexander belittled Moore after shutting him down in Week 1. Even more, Justin Fields and his teammates are well aware that this could his last game in a Bears uniform. Chicago is going to leave it all on the field in Week 18. Both teams are hot right now, each having won five of its last seven games. Green Bay’s offense has led the way, while Chicago’s defense has turned into one of the best in the NFL during this stretch.
The marquee matchup is the Packers offense versus the Bears defense. Green Bay has scored 33 points in each of its last two games, while Chicago has only allowed more than 20 points in a game once since Week 10. Packers QB Jordan Love has begun to click with his young receiver group and he is throwing the ball very well. He’s led the Packers to rank 11th in total points this season and third in passing touchdowns. In addition to the touchdowns through the air, the Packers have the sixth-least turnovers this year. Green Bay is actually more efficient on the group comparatively (14th in net yards per pass attempt, 10th in yards per carry), but rank only 22nd in rushing attempts. They’ve only accumulated ten rushing touchdowns this season, compared to 30 by pass. This is not good news for Chicago, who majors in stopping the run.
The Bears defense is playing like a whole new group compared to these two teams’ first meeting. Chicago has allowed the fifth-least yards per carry, second-least rushing touchdowns, and very least rushing yards in the NFL this season. Unsurprisingly, they’ve faced the second-least rushing attempts; teams have given up trying to run against them. This is partially due to the way opponents have found success passing the ball.
Over the course of the whole season, the Bears have allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns. However, net yards per pass attempt against has been steadily decreasing each week after a horrid start to the season. This secondary has really stepped up its game, including stacking up an insane amount of interceptions over the last two months or so. After sitting at the bottom of the league in turnovers nearly halfway through the season, the defense has managed to catapult to first in interceptions after usurping San Francisco last week in a four-pick performance.
Green Bay does most of its work through the air, but RB Aaron Jones has paved the way to the teams’ last two victories, running for 120+ yards in each of them. That will not happen this week, so Jordon Love will have to sling the ball. With all of the throwing, I definitely expect the Packers to bust some long pass plays and touchdowns. However, this will also come along with multiple interceptions. Love will play aggressively, but he’ll have to make sure that this leads to more good than harm.
Switching sides, we have two lesser units. The Bears rank 25th in net yards per pass attempt, 22nd in passing touchdowns, and tenth in turnovers. However, it is very good on the ground. Aided by QB Justin Fields incredible rushing ability, the offense is sixth in yards per carry and second in rushing yards and attempts. It is much more balanced than Green Bay’s offense in terms of scoring, with 19 passing touchdowns compared to 16 rushing touchdowns on the year.
The Packers defense has struggled this year. It’s given up the ninth-most yards per play, including the 12th-most net yards per pass attempt and 11th-most yards per carry. The unit is 31st in interceptions (only seven). It will have a difficult time with Chicago on offense, especially on the ground. The Packers have allowed the fifth-most rushing touchdowns this year. It will be interesting to see what Justin Fields can contribute on the ground. The Packers have not faced one good running quarterback this season besides Fields in Week 1. Over his last two games, Fields has run for 142 yards and two touchdowns. He also threw for 268 yards last week against a good Falcons secondary. With clear advantages both on the ground and through the air, I think that the Bears offense could have a very nice day in Lambeau Field.
In all, this is going to be a great game. I see the Packers offense and Bears defense cancelling each other out to an extent, but the Bears offense could feast on a poor Packers defensive group. The Bears win juicy one in Week 18.
Score Prediction: Bears 34 Packers 27
Texans at Colts
Saturday | 8:15 ET
This Week 18 matchup is as good as they come. Two 9-7 division rivals, winner takes the AFC South. The loser not only surrenders the division, but their ticket to the playoffs. The stakes do not get any higher than this. The Texans have a good deal of injuries, as basically their entire defensive line along with wide receivers Noah Brown and Robert Woods were DNP’s on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Though this is certainly concerning, I expect most the WRs and at least two of the lineman to gut it out; no player wants to miss this type of game. Texans quarterback CJ Stroud returned from injury last week in a commanding 26-3 victory over the Titans, while the Colts squeaked out a win over the Raiders in Week 17.
The Texans surprised people this season with their fun, young, new offense. Rookies CJ Stroud and Tank Dell exhibited a fantastic connection. Now with Dell out for the season due to injury and Stroud just recovered from one, things have gotten a little less rosey in Houston. Still, I expect everyone except Dell to be a go for Week 18, and this offense can still make some noise. Over the entire season, it ranks 13th in yards per play, 12th in net yards per pass attempt, and seventh in passing yards. The Texans are not efficient on the ground though, ranking 26th in yards per carry and 25th in rushing touchdowns. RB Devin Singletary does seem to have a blow-up game every few weeks, but it’s not something that you can count on. The Colts defense that will be tasked with stopping CJ Stroud and the Texans has allowed the sixth-most points in 2023. It is average against the pass, though it has allowed the tenth-least passing touchdowns. Efficiency-wise, it is also average against the run. However, opponents tend to run against Indianapolis a lot. This has led to the Colts giving up the sixth-most rushing yards this season and the fourth-most rushing touchdowns. This is interesting, because the Texans get most of their touchdowns through the air and struggle to punch it in on the ground. The Colts defense isn’t very good, but its few strengths seem to line up well against the Texans’ strengths on offense.
Another aspect of this matchup is the pass rush. The Colts are fifth in sacks, while the Texans offense has the the ninth-worst sack percentage. With offense tackle Laremy Tunsil’s health in question for this game, the Colts might be able to throw a wrench in Houston’s game plan by getting to the quarterback. Ultimately, I do expect the Colts defense to give the Texans some real trouble. Unless Singletary has one of his blow-up games, the Texans won’t score many points.
Switching sides, the Colts offense has managed to score the tenth-most points this season despite losing QB Anthony Richardson early in the year. The way that this team has persevered and given itself the opportunity to make the playoffs in Week 18 is a testament to the job that Shane Steichen has done in his first year as head coach in Indianapolis. The Colts were also without star RB Jonathan Taylor for much of the year. Indy ranks 17th in yards per carry and 18th in net yards per pass attempt. The Texans defense is very good against the run but very bad against the pass, having given up the third-least yards per carry but the fifth-most net yards per pass attempt. Very oddly enough, it allows touchdowns in the exact opposite manner. Though a stifling run defense, Houston’s given up the sixth-most rushing touchdowns. And, despite its great efficiency numbers against the pass, it has allowed the least passing touchdowns in the NFL this season.
Houston is tenth in sacks and fifth in pressure percentage, but its entire defensive line is on the injury report. It’s safe to expect a dip in its efficiency, even if most of them end up suiting up (which I expect they will). It’s really tough to forecast which unit will come out on top of this matchup, so I expect a bit of a standstill. The Colts will certainly have some nice drives though, and once they get to the redzone they will have no issue handing the ball off to Taylor or Zack Moss to punch it in.
This will certainly be an interesting game to watch. Neither team has a clear advantage on paper. A lot of it will come down to the gamplans and strategy implemented by these two first-year head coaches in Shane Steichen and DeMeco Ryans. I’ll give the slight edge to Steichen and the Colts at home. They have enough weapons on offense to both get down the field through the air and score on the ground, while I think that their defensive line could dominate the other side of the ball.
Score Prediction: Colts 26 Texans 24
Game of the Week
Bills at Dolphins
Sunday | 8:20 ET
The Bills will face off against the Dolphins this week to cap off the 2023 regular season. While Miami is already locked into the playoffs, there is a decent chance that this will be a win-and-in game for Buffalo. As it stands now, the Bills could possibly secure the #2 seed in the AFC with a win, but face the possibility of missing the playoffs entirely with a loss. The winner of Bills-Dolphins wins the AFC East. Since Miami would lose home-field advantage to most teams with a loss this week, there is great incentives to win (or not lose) by both teams. The Bills come in winners of four straight, while the injury-ridden Dolphins will limp into the week after a 56-19 beatdown by the Ravens in Week 17.
On paper, the Dolphins offense versus the Dolphins defense is the hottest matchup. The Dolphins are first in total points, total yards, yards per carry, rushing touchdowns, and total passing yards. The unit is also second in net yards per pass attempt and fourth in passing touchdowns. However, the group is beat down. Star wide receiver Jaylen Waddle is likely to miss the game, running back Raheem Mostert missed last week’s game and is iffy for this week, and superstar WR Tyreek Hill is clearly not at full-strength, playing through injury. They’ll face off against a Bills defense that’s given up the fourth-least points, sixth-lowest net yards per pass attempt, least passing touchdowns, and forced the second-most turnovers. The only thing that Miami has going for themselves is the Bills run defense. The Bills give up the fourth-most yards per carry. However, they have been shutting down the rushing attack during their current four-game win streak, only allowing 93 yards per game in this stretch, on average (Miami’s offense averages 137.5 rushing yards per game), which would make it the sixth-best run defense in the league. I don’t feel great about the Dolphins offense this week, especially if Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle miss another week. Tyreek Hill will get his yards, but this won’t be the explosive offense that we are used to seeing in Miami.
On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins are even more decimated. After losing stud edge rusher Jaelan Phillips for the season a couple of weeks ago, cornerstone linebacker Bradley Chubb tore his ACL last week, and 4x Pro-Bowler CB Xavien Howard is likely to miss the contest. The injuries are accumulating, and it’s top-level players sustaining them. Miami had a ultra-talented defense heading into the year, and S Jevon Holland (3rd in PFF grade among 97 qualified safeties), Andrew Van Ginkel (7th in PFF grade among 114 qualified edge rushers) and Jalen Ramsey (26th in PFF grade among 125 qualified cornerbacks) are all still healthy. DT Christian Wilkins is also still a force against the run, and S Deshon Elliot is also having a great season against the run. The Bills are eighth in yards per carry this season, while the Dolphins have given up the eighth-least yards per carry.
Led by QB Josh Allen, the Bills passing game is elite. Buffalo is fifth in net yards per pass attempt and ranks third in PFF passing grade. The Dolphins are average against the pass this year, so Buffalo could exploit this. Miami’s pass rush is fantastic, ranking fourth in sacks and second in pressure percentage. However, the Bills have managed to take the least sacks in the NFL this season by a wide margin (only 21, next lowest is 27). This should not be a major issue for Buffalo, as it normally is for other Dolphins opponents.
In all, I think that the Dolphins are simply too beat-down. Miami’s defense will still be able to hold its own, but I don’t see Tua and the offense being able to produce enough. The Dolphins defense could hold them in the game, but the Bills-possibly in a must-win game- will come out on top.